Fluminense 2-1 Vasco DA Gama – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fluminense at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fluminense vs Vasco DA Gama fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 10 as Fluminense welcome Vasco DA Gama to Estádio do Maracanã. Kick-off is set for Saturday 24 May 2025 at 22:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Fluminense stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D D D W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
At home at Estádio do Maracanã, Fluminense have gone 5W 4D 1L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio do Maracanã. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Vasco DA Gama — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Vasco DA Gama have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.60 PPG (Fluminense) versus 1.30 (Vasco DA Gama). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Fluminense have won 1, Vasco DA Gama 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 11 Aug 2024, ended 0–2 with Vasco DA Gama winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Fluminense trading profile (76 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Vasco DA Gama trading profile (76 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fluminense 40% versus Vasco DA Gama 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Fluminense 36% | Vasco DA Gama 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fluminense 1.59 xG and Vasco DA Gama 0.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fluminense attack 0.973 / defence 0.995 | Vasco DA Gama attack 0.889 / defence 1.171. League average goals — home 1.399 / away 0.829. Data: 47 Fluminense games / 47 Vasco DA Gama games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fluminense 56% | Draw 28% | Vasco DA Gama 15%. Fair-value odds: Fluminense 1.79 | Draw 3.57 | Vasco DA Gama 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Fluminense (56%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Fluminense as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 28% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.33 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates corroborate: Fluminense 20% | Vasco DA Gama 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fluminense vs Vasco DA Gama | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Estádio do Maracanã • Kick-off: Saturday 24 May 2025, 22:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fluminense 56% | Draw 28% | Vasco DA Gama 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 43% | xG Fluminense 1.59 / Vasco DA Gama 0.73 • Poisson strength factors: Fluminense attack 0.973 / def 0.995 | Vasco DA Gama attack 0.889 / def 1.171 | league avg home 1.399 / away 0.829 • Poisson stance: Fluminense (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Fluminense xG
Expected Goals
0.73
Vasco DA Gama xG
43%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fluminense vs Vasco DA Gama kick off?
Fluminense vs Vasco DA Gama kicked off at 22:30 on Saturday 24 May 2025 at Estádio do Maracanã.
What was the final score in Fluminense vs Vasco DA Gama?
Fluminense 2 - 1 Vasco DA Gama.
Where is Fluminense vs Vasco DA Gama being played?
The match is being played at Estádio do Maracanã.
What competition is Fluminense vs Vasco DA Gama part of?
Fluminense vs Vasco DA Gama is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Fluminense vs Vasco DA Gama?
Our statistical model gives Fluminense a 56% chance of winning, Vasco DA Gama a 15% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Fluminense the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fluminense vs Vasco DA Gama?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Fluminense and Vasco DA Gama will score (BTTS).
Will Fluminense vs Vasco DA Gama have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fluminense and Vasco DA Gama?
Record (4 meetings): Fluminense 1W | Draws 1 | Vasco DA Gama 2W.
What form are Fluminense and Vasco DA Gama in?
Fluminense (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-D-W-W. Vasco DA Gama (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Fluminense's attack at 0.97x the league average against Vasco DA Gama's defence at 1.17x — combine the two and it projects 1.59 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Vasco DA Gama's attack versus Fluminense's defence, projects 0.73 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (12.9%), 2-0 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fluminense Win
56%
1.78
28%
3.54
15%
6.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.4%
Home win
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Fluminense xG
Total xG
2.33
0.73
Vasco DA Gama xG
1.78
56%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
6.49
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
48%
2.08
20%
4.92
Win to Nil
27%
3.70
3%
31.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.6 | 11.4 | 4.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.4 | 9.1 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 6.6 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fluminense vs Vasco DA Gama?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Fluminense and Vasco DA Gama expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Fluminense and 0.73 for Vasco DA Gama, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Fluminense vs Vasco DA Gama?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Fluminense come into this having played 76 games, going 28W 18D 30L for 1.34 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-D-W-W.
On the other side, Vasco DA Gama sit at 1.25 PPG from 76 outings (26W 17D 33L), a run that reads L-L-D-W-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Fluminense on 1.34 PPG, Vasco DA Gama on 1.25. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Fluminense's home form reads 20W 12D 6L across 38 games on their own ground, a 1.89 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.34 PPG overall — Fluminense are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Vasco DA Gama have taken 0.82 points per game from 38 outings (7W 10D 21L). That's a step down from their 1.25 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Vasco DA Gama's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fluminense come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Fluminense are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Vasco DA Gama are on 1.11 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Last 76 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fluminense
Current Season
Vasco DA Gama
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fluminense and Vasco DA Gama in coming into this match?
Fluminense have gone 28W 18D 30L in their last 76 games (1.34 PPG), while Vasco DA Gama have gone 26W 17D 33L in their last 76 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fluminense at home or Vasco DA Gama away?
Fluminense's home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fluminense at home: 1.89 PPG; Vasco DA Gama away: 0.82 PPG.
Have Fluminense or Vasco DA Gama been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fluminense have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Vasco DA Gama in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Fluminense and Vasco DA Gama runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 6 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Fluminense's record when hosting Vasco DA Gama specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Fluminense
1
Draws
4
Vasco DA Gama
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fluminense and Vasco DA Gama?
From 8 meetings on record, Fluminense have won 3, Vasco DA Gama have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Fluminense and Vasco DA Gama last play each other?
They last met on 6 September 2026, when Fluminense 1-0 Vasco DA Gama.
Who has won more matches between Fluminense and Vasco DA Gama?
Vasco DA Gama have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Fluminense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Vasco DA Gama are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fluminense 47%, Vasco DA Gama 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Fluminense) and 42% (Vasco DA Gama).
On the defensive side: Fluminense keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Vasco DA Gama in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fluminense home games / Vasco DA Gama away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fluminense play Vasco DA Gama?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Fluminense's recent matches and 53% of Vasco DA Gama's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fluminense vs Vasco DA Gama usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Fluminense's recent games and 42% of Vasco DA Gama's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fluminense and Vasco DA Gama tend to score early?
Fluminense have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Vasco DA Gama in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Fluminense edge out Vasco DA Gama 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fluminense beat Vasco DA Gama 2-1 at Estádio do Maracanã, Regular Season - 10, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fluminense 1.59 xG and Vasco DA Gama 0.73 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fluminense attack 0.97 / defence 0.99 against Vasco DA Gama attack 0.89 / defence 1.17, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fluminense 56% | Draw 28% | Vasco DA Gama 15%, with Fluminense to win its most likely call at 56%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fluminense 36%, Vasco DA Gama 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fluminense's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Vasco DA Gama's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fluminense 1.34 PPG, Vasco DA Gama 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fluminense win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.