Fluminense 1-0 Gremio – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Fluminense at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fluminense vs Gremio fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Fluminense and Gremio meet at Estádio do Maracanã in Serie A, Regular Season - 18. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 3 August 2025 at 01:00 UTC.
Current Form
Fluminense's overall Serie A record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Fluminense, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fluminense's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Estádio do Maracanã this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Fluminense are significantly better at Estádio do Maracanã than their overall form suggests.
Gremio (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: D L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Gremio, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Gremio have posted 1W 4D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Gremio arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 1.00) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Fluminense have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Gremio in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head ledger leans to Gremio, who have claimed 5 wins from 6 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 1 draws.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Nov 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
It is worth noting that Gremio have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 6 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading & In-Play
Fluminense — key trading statistics (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Gremio — key trading statistics (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fluminense 42% versus Gremio 53%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Fluminense 32% | Gremio 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fluminense 1.44 xG and Gremio 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fluminense attack 0.944 / defence 1.161 | Gremio attack 0.948 / defence 1.198. League average goals — home 1.274 / away 0.929. Data: 53 Fluminense games / 54 Gremio games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fluminense 46% | Draw 27% | Gremio 26%. Fair-value odds: Fluminense 2.17 | Draw 3.70 | Gremio 3.85. Fluminense hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fluminense at 46% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Gremio (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fluminense if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.46 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. This conflicts with form data: Fluminense 60% | Gremio 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fluminense vs Gremio | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Estádio do Maracanã • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Aug 2025, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fluminense 46% | Draw 27% | Gremio 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 49% | xG Fluminense 1.44 / Gremio 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Fluminense attack 0.944 / def 1.161 | Gremio attack 0.948 / def 1.198 | league avg home 1.274 / away 0.929 • Poisson stance: Fluminense (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Fluminense xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Gremio xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fluminense vs Gremio kick off?
Fluminense vs Gremio kicked off at 01:00 on Sunday 3 August 2025 at Estádio do Maracanã.
What was the final score in Fluminense vs Gremio?
Fluminense 1 - 0 Gremio.
Where is Fluminense vs Gremio being played?
The match is being played at Estádio do Maracanã.
What competition is Fluminense vs Gremio part of?
Fluminense vs Gremio is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Fluminense vs Gremio?
Our statistical model gives Fluminense a 46% chance of winning, Gremio a 26% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Fluminense the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fluminense vs Gremio?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Fluminense and Gremio will score (BTTS).
Will Fluminense vs Gremio have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fluminense and Gremio?
Record (6 meetings): Fluminense 0W | Draws 1 | Gremio 5W.
What form are Fluminense and Gremio in?
Fluminense (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. Gremio (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Fluminense's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Gremio's defensive record (1.20x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.44. Flip it around — Gremio's attack (0.95x) against Fluminense's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from 53/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.7%), 0-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fluminense Win
46%
2.16
27%
3.67
26%
3.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Fluminense xG
Total xG
2.46
1.02
Gremio xG
2.16
46%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
3.78
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
24%
4.22
Win to Nil
17%
6.00
6%
15.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 8.7 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 12.6 | 6.4 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.0 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fluminense vs Gremio?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Fluminense and Gremio expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Fluminense and 1.02 for Gremio, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Fluminense vs Gremio?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 53 outings, Fluminense have picked up 1.25 PPG on a 18W 12D 23L record — W-L-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Fluminense is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Gremio's form line: 17W 14D 22L from 53 games, 1.23 PPG, last five D-L-D-L-W. The sample for Gremio is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.25 PPG for Fluminense against 1.23 for Gremio. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Fluminense have posted 1.62 PPG from 26 outings (11W 9D 6L).
On the road, Gremio have gone 4W 9D 13L from 26 away games — 0.81 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.23 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Gremio's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fluminense come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Fluminense are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Gremio are on 1.11 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Last 53 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fluminense
Blended
Gremio
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fluminense and Gremio in coming into this match?
Fluminense have gone 18W 12D 23L in their last 53 games (1.25 PPG), while Gremio have gone 17W 14D 22L in their last 53 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fluminense at home or Gremio away?
Fluminense's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fluminense at home: 1.62 PPG; Gremio away: 0.81 PPG.
Have Fluminense or Gremio been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fluminense have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Gremio in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since July 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fluminense have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Gremio — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Fluminense
2
Draws
5
Gremio
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fluminense and Gremio?
From 10 meetings on record, Fluminense have won 3, Gremio have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fluminense and Gremio last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when Gremio 1-1 Fluminense.
Who has won more matches between Fluminense and Gremio?
Gremio have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Fluminense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Gremio are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fluminense 50%, Gremio 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Fluminense) and 38% (Gremio).
On the defensive side: Fluminense keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Gremio in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fluminense home games / Gremio away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fluminense play Gremio?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Fluminense's recent matches and 54% of Gremio's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fluminense vs Gremio usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Fluminense's recent games and 38% of Gremio's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fluminense and Gremio tend to score early?
Fluminense have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Gremio in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Fluminense edge out Gremio 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fluminense beat Gremio 1-0 at Estádio do Maracanã, Regular Season - 18, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fluminense 1.44 xG and Gremio 1.02 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Gremio landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fluminense attack 0.94 / defence 1.16 against Gremio attack 0.95 / defence 1.20, drawn from 53/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fluminense 46% | Draw 27% | Gremio 26%, with Fluminense to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fluminense 32%, Gremio 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fluminense's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Gremio's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fluminense 1.25 PPG, Gremio 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fluminense win broke the near-deadlock. Fluminense (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.92 average — tighter than their form line. Gremio (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.92 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.