Flamengo 2-0 Corinthians – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Flamengo at 41% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Flamengo face Corinthians.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho plays host to Flamengo versus Corinthians in Serie A (matchday 6). Kick-off: Saturday 11 May 2024 at 21:00 UK time.
Form
Flamengo (all games): 5W 1D 4L across their last 10 — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Flamengo's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Corinthians have collected 1.70 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Corinthians away from home: 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.60 for Flamengo, 1.70 for Corinthians — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 4 H2H matches in our data, Corinthians edge it 2 wins to 1, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited in the 4 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.8 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 8 Oct 2023, ended Flamengo 1–1 Corinthians — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Flamengo goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 76 games, 38 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Corinthians goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 76 games, 38 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; of the 22 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Flamengo 51% versus Corinthians 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Flamengo 53% | Corinthians 37%). Note also that Corinthians surrender HT leads in 27% of cases while Flamengo recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 31% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Flamengo 1.23 xG and Corinthians 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Flamengo attack 0.938 / defence 1.032 | Corinthians attack 0.828 / defence 1.025. League average goals — home 1.274 / away 1.096. Data: built from Flamengo's last 43 games and Corinthians's last 43.
Result probabilities: Flamengo 41% | Draw 32% | Corinthians 26%. Fair-value odds: Flamengo 2.43 | Draw 3.08 | Corinthians 3.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Flamengo as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Flamengo if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.16 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 63% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Flamengo 30% (last 10 home games) | Corinthians 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Flamengo vs Corinthians | Competition: Serie A, matchday 6 | Venue: Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho • Kick-off: Saturday 11 May 2024 at 21:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Flamengo 41% | Draw 32% | Corinthians 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% (Under 63%) | BTTS Yes 45% (No 55%) | xG Flamengo 1.23 / Corinthians 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Flamengo attack 0.938 / def 1.032 | Corinthians attack 0.828 / def 1.025 | league avg home 1.274 / away 1.096 • Poisson stance: Flamengo (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Flamengo xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Corinthians xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Flamengo vs Corinthians FAQs
What time does Flamengo vs Corinthians kick off?
Flamengo vs Corinthians kicked off at 21:00 UK time on Saturday 11 May 2024 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What was the final score in Flamengo vs Corinthians?
Flamengo 2 - 0 Corinthians.
Where is Flamengo vs Corinthians being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What competition is Flamengo vs Corinthians part of?
Flamengo vs Corinthians is a Serie A fixture (matchday 6) (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Flamengo vs Corinthians?
Our statistical model gives Flamengo a 41% chance of winning, Corinthians a 26% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Flamengo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Flamengo vs Corinthians?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Flamengo and Corinthians will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (55%).
Will Flamengo vs Corinthians have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (63%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Flamengo's attack at 0.94x the league average against Corinthians's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.23 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Corinthians's attack (0.83x) against Flamengo's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from Flamengo's last 43 games and Corinthians's last 43 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.2%), 1-0 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Flamengo Win
41%
2.43
32%
3.08
26%
3.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
11.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Flamengo xG
Total xG
2.16
0.94
Corinthians xG
2.43
41%
Home win
3.08
32%
Draw
3.78
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
39%
2.55
29%
3.41
Win to Nil
16%
6.21
8%
12.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 10.8 | 5.0 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.1 | 13.2 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 8.1 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Flamengo vs Corinthians Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Flamengo vs Corinthians?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Flamengo and Corinthians expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Flamengo and 0.94 for Corinthians, a combined total of 2.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Flamengo vs Corinthians?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Flamengo's recent record stands at 37W 17D 22L from 76 games, a 1.68 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-L in the last five.
Corinthians, meanwhile, have gone 30W 25D 21L across 76 games — 1.51 PPG, with W-L-W-L-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.68 PPG for Flamengo against 1.51 for Corinthians. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Flamengo have managed 21W 8D 9L from their last 38 home games — 1.87 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Corinthians's away record stands at 12W 11D 15L across their last 38 away games, a 1.24 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Flamengo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Flamengo are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Corinthians are on 1.20 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Last 76 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Flamengo
Current Season
Corinthians
Current Season
Flamengo (Home) vs Corinthians (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Flamengo
Current Season
Corinthians
Current Season
❓ Flamengo vs Corinthians Form FAQs
What form are Flamengo and Corinthians in coming into this match?
Flamengo have gone 37W 17D 22L in their last 76 games (1.68 PPG), while Corinthians have gone 30W 25D 21L in their last 76 (1.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Flamengo at home or Corinthians away?
Flamengo's home record (1.87 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Flamengo at home: 1.87 PPG; Corinthians away: 1.24 PPG.
Have Flamengo or Corinthians been keeping clean sheets recently?
Flamengo have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Corinthians in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to July 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was as recently as 13 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Flamengo won Flamengo 4-0 Corinthians on 27 Apr 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Flamengo have gone 4W 0D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Corinthians — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Flamengo
2
Draws
3
Corinthians
Recent Meetings
❓ Flamengo vs Corinthians H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Flamengo and Corinthians?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Flamengo have won 5, Corinthians have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Flamengo and Corinthians last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 13 September 2026: Flamengo 2-1 Corinthians.
Who has won more matches between Flamengo and Corinthians?
Flamengo have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Flamengo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Corinthians are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 36% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Flamengo 42%, Corinthians 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Flamengo) and 45% (Corinthians).
On the defensive side: Flamengo keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Corinthians in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Flamengo home games / Corinthians away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Flamengo vs Corinthians Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Flamengo and Corinthians matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Flamengo's recent matches and 47% of Corinthians's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Flamengo and Corinthians matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Flamengo's recent games and 45% of Corinthians's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Flamengo and Corinthians matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 74% of Flamengo's recent matches and 76% of Corinthians's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Flamengo cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Corinthians.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Flamengo beat Corinthians 2-0 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho, Regular Season - 6, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Flamengo 1.23 xG and Corinthians 0.94 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Corinthians landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Flamengo attack 0.94 / defence 1.03 against Corinthians attack 0.83 / defence 1.02, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Flamengo 41% | Draw 32% | Corinthians 26%, with Flamengo to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Flamengo 53%, Corinthians 37%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Flamengo's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Corinthians's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Flamengo 1.68 PPG, Corinthians 1.51 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Flamengo win broke the near-deadlock. Flamengo (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.82 average — tighter than their form line. Corinthians (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.