Vasco DA Gama 1-6 Flamengo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Flamengo at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Vasco DA Gama vs Flamengo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Vasco DA Gama and Flamengo meet at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho in Serie A, Regular Season - 7. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 2 June 2024 at 20:00 UTC.
Current Form
Vasco DA Gama's overall Serie A record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: D D L L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Vasco DA Gama at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Vasco DA Gama are significantly better at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho than their overall form suggests.
Flamengo have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: W W L W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Flamengo away from home this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Vasco DA Gama lead 0W to 2W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 22 Oct 2023, ended 0–1 with Flamengo winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Vasco DA Gama — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Flamengo — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vasco DA Gama 50% versus Flamengo 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vasco DA Gama 37% | Flamengo 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vasco DA Gama 1.10 xG and Flamengo 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vasco DA Gama attack 1.039 / defence 1.251 | Flamengo attack 0.996 / defence 0.902. League average goals — home 1.174 / away 1.103. Data: 44 Vasco DA Gama games / 44 Flamengo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vasco DA Gama 29% | Draw 28% | Flamengo 42%. Fair-value odds: Vasco DA Gama 3.45 | Draw 3.57 | Flamengo 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Flamengo as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Flamengo if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.47 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Vasco DA Gama 60% | Flamengo 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vasco DA Gama vs Flamengo | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Jun 2024, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vasco DA Gama 29% | Draw 28% | Flamengo 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 51% | xG Vasco DA Gama 1.10 / Flamengo 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Vasco DA Gama attack 1.039 / def 1.251 | Flamengo attack 0.996 / def 0.902 | league avg home 1.174 / away 1.103 • Poisson stance: Flamengo (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Vasco DA Gama xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Flamengo xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vasco DA Gama vs Flamengo kick off?
Vasco DA Gama vs Flamengo kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 2 June 2024 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What was the final score in Vasco DA Gama vs Flamengo?
Vasco DA Gama 1 - 6 Flamengo.
Where is Vasco DA Gama vs Flamengo being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What competition is Vasco DA Gama vs Flamengo part of?
Vasco DA Gama vs Flamengo is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Vasco DA Gama vs Flamengo?
Our statistical model gives Vasco DA Gama a 29% chance of winning, Flamengo a 42% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Flamengo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vasco DA Gama vs Flamengo?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Vasco DA Gama and Flamengo will score (BTTS).
Will Vasco DA Gama vs Flamengo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vasco DA Gama and Flamengo?
Record (2 meetings): Vasco DA Gama 0W | Draws 0 | Flamengo 2W.
What form are Vasco DA Gama and Flamengo in?
Vasco DA Gama (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-L-L-W. Flamengo (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Vasco DA Gama's attack rating (1.04) and Flamengo's defence rating (0.90), the model arrives at 1.10 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Flamengo's attack (1.00x) against Vasco DA Gama's defence (1.25x) — and the away total comes out at 1.37.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.1%), 0-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Flamengo Win
29%
3.42
28%
3.52
42%
2.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.6%
Away win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Vasco DA Gama xG
Total xG
2.47
1.37
Flamengo xG
3.42
29%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
2.36
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
25%
3.95
33%
3.00
Win to Nil
7%
13.50
14%
7.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 11.6 | 8.0 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.7 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.0 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vasco DA Gama vs Flamengo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Vasco DA Gama and Flamengo expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Vasco DA Gama and 1.37 for Flamengo, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Vasco DA Gama vs Flamengo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Vasco DA Gama's recent record stands at 12W 9D 17L from 38 games, a 1.18 PPG return, with D-D-L-L-W in the last five.
Flamengo, meanwhile, have gone 19W 9D 10L across 38 games — 1.74 PPG, with W-W-L-W-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Flamengo by 0.56 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Vasco DA Gama heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Vasco DA Gama have managed 9W 2D 8L from 19 games — 1.53 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Flamengo's away record stands at 9W 4D 6L across 19 trips, a 1.63 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Vasco DA Gama are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Flamengo are on 1.47 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Defensively: Flamengo in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vasco DA Gama
Current Season
Flamengo
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vasco DA Gama and Flamengo in coming into this match?
Vasco DA Gama have gone 12W 9D 17L in their last 38 games (1.18 PPG), while Flamengo have gone 19W 9D 10L in their last 38 (1.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vasco DA Gama at home or Flamengo away?
Flamengo's away record (1.63 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vasco DA Gama at home: 1.53 PPG; Flamengo away: 1.63 PPG.
Have Vasco DA Gama or Flamengo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Vasco DA Gama have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Flamengo in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 7 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
The last 4 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Flamengo won 1-6 on 2 Jun 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Vasco DA Gama have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Flamengo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
0
Vasco DA Gama
4
Draws
3
Flamengo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vasco DA Gama and Flamengo?
From 7 meetings on record, Vasco DA Gama have won 0, Flamengo have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Vasco DA Gama and Flamengo last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Flamengo 2-2 Vasco DA Gama.
Who has won more matches between Vasco DA Gama and Flamengo?
Flamengo have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Vasco DA Gama are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Flamengo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vasco DA Gama 42%, Flamengo 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Vasco DA Gama) and 63% (Flamengo).
On the defensive side: Vasco DA Gama keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Vasco DA Gama have failed to score in 32% of games; Flamengo in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vasco DA Gama home games / Flamengo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vasco DA Gama play Flamengo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Vasco DA Gama's recent matches and 58% of Flamengo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Vasco DA Gama vs Flamengo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Vasco DA Gama's recent games and 63% of Flamengo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Vasco DA Gama and Flamengo tend to score early?
Vasco DA Gama have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Flamengo in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Flamengo run riot with a 1-6 hammering of Vasco DA Gama.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Flamengo beat Vasco DA Gama 1-6 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho, Regular Season - 7, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vasco DA Gama 1.10 xG and Flamengo 1.37 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 1-6 for 7 actual goals. Flamengo outscored their 1.37 projection by 4.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vasco DA Gama attack 1.04 / defence 1.25 against Flamengo attack 1.00 / defence 0.90, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vasco DA Gama 29% | Draw 28% | Flamengo 42%, with Flamengo to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vasco DA Gama 37%, Flamengo 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vasco DA Gama's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Flamengo's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Flamengo arrived the stronger side — 1.74 PPG against 1.18. That form edge translated into the three points. Vasco DA Gama (home/away splits) shipped 6 against a 1.21 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Flamengo (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 1.58 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.