Cuiaba 1-3 Palmeiras – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Palmeiras at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cuiaba vs Palmeiras fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Cuiaba and Palmeiras meet at Arena Pantanal in Serie A, Regular Season - 36. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 1 December 2021 at 01:00 UTC.
Current Form
Cuiaba's overall Serie A record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: D L L W D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
In front of their own supporters this season, Cuiaba have posted 5W 3D 2L at Arena Pantanal — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Arena Pantanal. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Cuiaba are significantly better at Arena Pantanal than their overall form suggests.
Palmeiras (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.90 points per game. Last five: W L L L D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Palmeiras have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Palmeiras are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (1.90 vs 1.30). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Cuiaba 1W, Palmeiras 0W, 0D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Aug 2021, ended 2–0 with Cuiaba winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Cuiaba — key trading statistics (34 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 36% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time; they fail to score in 44% of games.
Palmeiras — key trading statistics (34 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cuiaba 41% versus Palmeiras 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cuiaba 35% | Palmeiras 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cuiaba 0.77 xG and Palmeiras 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cuiaba attack 0.744 / defence 1.079 | Palmeiras attack 1.096 / defence 1.051. League average goals — home 0.989 / away 0.907. Cuiaba's attack strength of 0.744 is below the league average — the 0.77 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 34 Cuiaba games / 35 Palmeiras games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cuiaba 26% | Draw 32% | Palmeiras 42%. Fair-value odds: Cuiaba 3.85 | Draw 3.12 | Palmeiras 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.85. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.85 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Palmeiras at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Palmeiras if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.85 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 28% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 36% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Cuiaba 20% | Palmeiras 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cuiaba vs Palmeiras | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Arena Pantanal • Kick-off: Wednesday 1 Dec 2021, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cuiaba 26% | Draw 32% | Palmeiras 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 36% | xG Cuiaba 0.77 / Palmeiras 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Cuiaba attack 0.744 / def 1.079 | Palmeiras attack 1.096 / def 1.051 | league avg home 0.989 / away 0.907 • Poisson stance: Palmeiras (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.77
Cuiaba xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Palmeiras xG
36%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cuiaba vs Palmeiras kick off?
Cuiaba vs Palmeiras kicked off at 01:00 on Wednesday 1 December 2021 at Arena Pantanal.
What was the final score in Cuiaba vs Palmeiras?
Cuiaba 1 - 3 Palmeiras.
Where is Cuiaba vs Palmeiras being played?
The match is being played at Arena Pantanal.
What competition is Cuiaba vs Palmeiras part of?
Cuiaba vs Palmeiras is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Cuiaba vs Palmeiras?
Our statistical model gives Cuiaba a 26% chance of winning, Palmeiras a 42% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Palmeiras the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cuiaba vs Palmeiras?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Cuiaba and Palmeiras will score (BTTS).
Will Cuiaba vs Palmeiras have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cuiaba and Palmeiras?
Record (1 meetings): Cuiaba 1W | Draws 0 | Palmeiras 0W.
What form are Cuiaba and Palmeiras in?
Cuiaba (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-L-L-W-D. Palmeiras (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Cuiaba's attack rating (0.74) and Palmeiras's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 0.77 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Palmeiras's attack (1.10x) against Cuiaba's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.07.
These ratings are built from 34/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 17.5%. Close behind: 0-1 (15.2%), 1-1 (14.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palmeiras Win
26%
3.89
32%
3.09
42%
2.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.9%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.8%
Draw
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.77
Cuiaba xG
Total xG
1.85
1.07
Palmeiras xG
3.89
26%
Home win
3.09
32%
Draw
2.39
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.80
64%
BTTS No
1.56
Clean Sheet
34%
2.92
46%
2.17
Win to Nil
9%
11.36
19%
5.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.8 | 16.9 | 9.1 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 13.1 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 5.1 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cuiaba vs Palmeiras?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.5%.
How many goals are Cuiaba and Palmeiras expected to score?
The model projects 0.77 expected goals for Cuiaba and 1.07 for Palmeiras, a combined total of 1.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Cuiaba vs Palmeiras?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 34 outings, Cuiaba have picked up 1.26 PPG on a 9W 16D 9L record — D-L-L-W-D across the most recent five.
Palmeiras's form line: 18W 5D 11L from 34 games, 1.74 PPG, last five W-L-L-L-D.
Put side by side, Palmeiras are the form team by 0.48 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Cuiaba.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Cuiaba have posted 1.44 PPG from 16 outings (6W 5D 5L).
On the road, Palmeiras have gone 8W 2D 6L from 16 away games — 1.62 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Cuiaba are averaging 0.91 goals scored and 0.94 conceded per game recently; Palmeiras are on 1.59 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Defensively: Cuiaba have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 34 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cuiaba
Current Season
Palmeiras
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cuiaba and Palmeiras in coming into this match?
Cuiaba have gone 9W 16D 9L in their last 34 games (1.26 PPG), while Palmeiras have gone 18W 5D 11L in their last 34 (1.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cuiaba at home or Palmeiras away?
Palmeiras's away record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cuiaba at home: 1.44 PPG; Palmeiras away: 1.62 PPG.
Have Cuiaba or Palmeiras been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cuiaba have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Palmeiras in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 August 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Palmeiras have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Palmeiras won 5-0 on 24 Aug 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cuiaba have gone 0W 1D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Palmeiras — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Cuiaba
1
Draws
6
Palmeiras
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cuiaba and Palmeiras?
From 8 meetings on record, Cuiaba have won 1, Palmeiras have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cuiaba and Palmeiras last play each other?
They last met on 24 August 2024, when Palmeiras 5-0 Cuiaba.
Who has won more matches between Cuiaba and Palmeiras?
Palmeiras have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Cuiaba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Palmeiras are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cuiaba 38%, Palmeiras 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 31% (Cuiaba) and 56% (Palmeiras).
On the defensive side: Cuiaba keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Palmeiras in 44%; Cuiaba have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cuiaba home games / Palmeiras away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cuiaba play Palmeiras?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Cuiaba's recent matches and 44% of Palmeiras's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cuiaba vs Palmeiras usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Cuiaba's recent games and 56% of Palmeiras's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cuiaba and Palmeiras tend to score early?
Cuiaba have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Palmeiras in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Palmeiras cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Cuiaba.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Palmeiras beat Cuiaba 1-3 at Arena Pantanal, Regular Season - 36, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cuiaba 0.77 xG and Palmeiras 1.07 xG, a combined 1.85. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Palmeiras outscored their 1.07 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cuiaba attack 0.74 / defence 1.08 against Palmeiras attack 1.10 / defence 1.05, drawn from 34/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cuiaba 26% | Draw 32% | Palmeiras 42%, with Palmeiras to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 55% and landed. Over 3.5 was 12% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cuiaba 35%, Palmeiras 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cuiaba's trading profile (34 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Palmeiras's trading profile (34 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Palmeiras arrived the stronger side — 1.74 PPG against 1.26. Form held, and they took the win. Cuiaba (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Palmeiras (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.38 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.