Cruzeiro 3-1 Vitoria – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Cruzeiro at 55% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Cruzeiro face Vitoria.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Cruzeiro welcome Vitoria to Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto in Serie A (matchday 4). Kick-off is Sunday 28 April 2024 at 21:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Cruzeiro have gone 3W 4D 3L — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: D W D D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Cruzeiro at home: 1W 7D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cruzeiro 1.75 xG and Vitoria 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cruzeiro attack 1.162 / defence 1.079 | Vitoria attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.310 / away 1.101. Data: built from Cruzeiro's last 41 games and Vitoria's last 2.
Result probabilities: Cruzeiro 55% | Draw 24% | Vitoria 22%. Fair-value odds: Cruzeiro 1.83 | Draw 4.25 | Vitoria 4.61. The model has a clear lean to Cruzeiro (55%) — a 31pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cruzeiro at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.76 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cruzeiro vs Vitoria | Competition: Serie A, matchday 4 | Venue: Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto • Kick-off: Sunday 28 April 2024 at 21:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cruzeiro 55% | Draw 24% | Vitoria 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% (Under 48%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Cruzeiro 1.75 / Vitoria 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Cruzeiro attack 1.162 / def 1.079 | Vitoria attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.310 / away 1.101 • Poisson stance: Cruzeiro (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
Cruzeiro xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Vitoria xG
53%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Cruzeiro vs Vitoria FAQs
What time does Cruzeiro vs Vitoria kick off?
Cruzeiro vs Vitoria kicked off at 21:00 UK time on Sunday 28 April 2024 at Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto.
What was the final score in Cruzeiro vs Vitoria?
Cruzeiro 3 - 1 Vitoria.
Where is Cruzeiro vs Vitoria being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto.
What competition is Cruzeiro vs Vitoria part of?
Cruzeiro vs Vitoria is a Serie A fixture (matchday 4) (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Cruzeiro vs Vitoria?
Our statistical model gives Cruzeiro a 55% chance of winning, Vitoria a 22% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Cruzeiro the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cruzeiro vs Vitoria?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Cruzeiro and Vitoria will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Cruzeiro vs Vitoria have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Cruzeiro's attack rating (1.16) and Vitoria's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.75 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Vitoria's attack versus Cruzeiro's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Cruzeiro's last 41 games and Vitoria's last 2 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cruzeiro Win
55%
1.83
24%
4.25
22%
4.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
Cruzeiro xG
Total xG
2.76
1.01
Vitoria xG
1.83
55%
Home win
4.25
24%
Draw
4.61
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
36%
2.75
17%
5.75
Win to Nil
20%
5.01
4%
26.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 6.4 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 11.2 | 5.6 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.8 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Cruzeiro vs Vitoria Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Cruzeiro vs Vitoria?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Cruzeiro and Vitoria expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Cruzeiro and 1.01 for Vitoria, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Cruzeiro vs Vitoria?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cruzeiro
Pre-Season
Vitoria
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
Cruzeiro (Home) vs Vitoria (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Cruzeiro
Pre-Season
Vitoria
Pre-Season
No results found for this venue split.
No results found for this venue split.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to April 2024. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was as recently as 20 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Cruzeiro have taken the most recent 3 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 1 Apr 2026, when Cruzeiro won Cruzeiro 3-0 Vitoria.
Cruzeiro's record when hosting Vitoria specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Cruzeiro
2
Draws
0
Vitoria
Recent Meetings
❓ Cruzeiro vs Vitoria H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Cruzeiro and Vitoria?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Cruzeiro have won 4, Vitoria have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cruzeiro and Vitoria last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 20 September 2026: Vitoria 1-3 Cruzeiro.
Who has won more matches between Cruzeiro and Vitoria?
Cruzeiro have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cruzeiro home games / Vitoria away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Cruzeiro cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Vitoria.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cruzeiro beat Vitoria 3-1 at Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto, Regular Season - 4, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cruzeiro 1.75 xG and Vitoria 1.01 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Cruzeiro beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cruzeiro attack 1.16 / defence 1.08 against Vitoria attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 41/2 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cruzeiro 55% | Draw 24% | Vitoria 22%, with Cruzeiro to win its most likely call at 55%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.