Bahia 1-0 Gremio – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Bahia at 53%, yet in-form Gremio provide a compelling counter-argument — this Bahia vs Gremio fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Full Analysis

Arena Fonte Nova plays host to Bahia versus Gremio in Serie A (matchday 4). Kick-off: Sunday 28 April 2024 at 02:00 UK time.

Form

Bahia (all games): 3W 1D 6L across their last 10 — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D W L L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).

At home, Bahia have gone 5W 2D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Bahia are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Gremio's record over their last 10 games: 8W 0D 2L (2.40 PPG). Last five: L L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Gremio's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. Gremio are 1.40 PPG clear of Bahia over their recent games (2.40 vs 1.00). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

H2H History

Neither side has dominated the 4 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Bahia, 3 for Gremio and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.

The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 4 Nov 2023, ended Bahia 0–1 Gremio — a Gremio win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading

Bahia half-time and goal-timing data (last 38 games, 19 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.

Gremio half-time and goal-timing data (last 38 games, 19 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 46%; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bahia 47% versus Gremio 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bahia 50% | Gremio 63%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Bahia 1.80 xG and Gremio 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bahia attack 1.101 / defence 0.981 | Gremio attack 1.054 / defence 1.210. League average goals — home 1.348 / away 1.106. Gremio's defence rating of 1.210 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Bahia's projected output up. Data: built from Bahia's last 41 games and Gremio's last 41.

Result probabilities: Bahia 53% | Draw 23% | Gremio 24%. Fair-value odds: Bahia 1.90 | Draw 4.31 | Gremio 4.13. Bahia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Bahia at 53% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Gremio (2.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bahia if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 2.94 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Bahia's last 10 home games and Gremio's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Bahia 40% (last 10 home games) | Gremio 70% (last 10 away games).

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights