Coritiba 0-2 Corinthians – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Corinthians at 50% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Coritiba vs Corinthians encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Coritiba and Corinthians meet at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira in Serie A, Regular Season - 38. This fixture gets under way on Thursday 7 December 2023 at 00:30 UTC.
Current Form
Coritiba's overall Serie A record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: W W L D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Coritiba at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 home games — 0.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Corinthians (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: D W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Corinthians have posted 3W 4D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On a straight form reading, Corinthians are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (1.50 vs 1.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Coritiba 0W, Corinthians 2W, 1D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Aug 2023, ended 1–3 with Corinthians winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Coritiba goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (75 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
Corinthians goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (75 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Coritiba 55% versus Corinthians 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Coritiba 55% | Corinthians 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Coritiba 1.02 xG and Corinthians 1.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Coritiba attack 0.797 / defence 1.191 | Corinthians attack 1.169 / defence 0.995. League average goals — home 1.284 / away 1.118. Coritiba's attack strength of 0.797 is below the league average — the 1.02 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 75 Coritiba games / 75 Corinthians games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Coritiba 25% | Draw 25% | Corinthians 50%. Fair-value odds: Coritiba 4.00 | Draw 4.00 | Corinthians 2.00. Corinthians hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Corinthians are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Corinthians if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.57 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 4.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Coritiba 40% | Corinthians 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Coritiba vs Corinthians | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira • Kick-off: Thursday 7 Dec 2023, 00:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Coritiba 25% | Draw 25% | Corinthians 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 50% | xG Coritiba 1.02 / Corinthians 1.56 • Poisson strength factors: Coritiba attack 0.797 / def 1.191 | Corinthians attack 1.169 / def 0.995 | league avg home 1.284 / away 1.118 • Poisson stance: Corinthians (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Coritiba xG
Expected Goals
1.56
Corinthians xG
50%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Coritiba vs Corinthians kick off?
Coritiba vs Corinthians kicked off at 00:30 on Thursday 7 December 2023 at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira.
What was the final score in Coritiba vs Corinthians?
Coritiba 0 - 2 Corinthians.
Where is Coritiba vs Corinthians being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira.
What competition is Coritiba vs Corinthians part of?
Coritiba vs Corinthians is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Coritiba vs Corinthians?
Our statistical model gives Coritiba a 25% chance of winning, Corinthians a 50% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Corinthians the favourite.
Will both teams score in Coritiba vs Corinthians?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Coritiba and Corinthians will score (BTTS).
Will Coritiba vs Corinthians have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Coritiba and Corinthians?
Record (3 meetings): Coritiba 0W | Draws 1 | Corinthians 2W.
What form are Coritiba and Corinthians in?
Coritiba (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-D-L. Corinthians (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Coritiba's attack rating (0.80) and Corinthians's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 1.02 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Corinthians's attack (1.17x) against Coritiba's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 1.56.
These ratings are built from 75/75 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.3%), 1-2 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Corinthians Win
25%
4.03
25%
3.94
50%
2.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.9%
Away win
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Coritiba xG
Total xG
2.57
1.56
Corinthians xG
4.03
25%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
2.01
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
21%
4.74
36%
2.77
Win to Nil
5%
19.11
18%
5.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 11.9 | 9.2 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 12.1 | 9.4 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 6.1 | 4.8 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Coritiba vs Corinthians?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Coritiba and Corinthians expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Coritiba and 1.56 for Corinthians, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Coritiba vs Corinthians?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 75 outings, Coritiba have picked up 0.96 PPG on a 20W 12D 43L record — W-W-L-D-L across the most recent five.
Corinthians's form line: 29W 25D 21L from 75 games, 1.49 PPG, last five D-W-L-W-L.
Put side by side, Corinthians are the form team by 0.53 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Coritiba.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Coritiba have posted 1.43 PPG from 37 outings (15W 8D 14L). That's noticeably better than their 0.96 PPG overall — Coritiba are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Corinthians have gone 11W 11D 15L from 37 away games — 1.19 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Coritiba are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; Corinthians are on 1.19 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Last 75 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Coritiba
Current Season
Corinthians
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Coritiba and Corinthians in coming into this match?
Coritiba have gone 20W 12D 43L in their last 75 games (0.96 PPG), while Corinthians have gone 29W 25D 21L in their last 75 (1.49 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Coritiba at home or Corinthians away?
Coritiba's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Coritiba at home: 1.43 PPG; Corinthians away: 1.19 PPG.
Have Coritiba or Corinthians been keeping clean sheets recently?
Coritiba have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Corinthians in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since July 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 12 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Coritiba have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Corinthians — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Coritiba
1
Draws
3
Corinthians
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Coritiba and Corinthians?
From 5 meetings on record, Coritiba have won 1, Corinthians have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Coritiba and Corinthians last play each other?
They last met on 12 March 2026, when Corinthians 0-2 Coritiba.
Who has won more matches between Coritiba and Corinthians?
Corinthians have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Coritiba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Corinthians are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Coritiba 43%, Corinthians 49% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Coritiba) and 46% (Corinthians).
On the defensive side: Coritiba keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Coritiba have failed to score in 27% of games; Corinthians in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Coritiba home games / Corinthians away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Coritiba play Corinthians?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Coritiba's recent matches and 49% of Corinthians's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Coritiba vs Corinthians usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Coritiba's recent games and 46% of Corinthians's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Coritiba and Corinthians tend to score early?
Coritiba have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Corinthians in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Corinthians cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Coritiba.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Corinthians beat Coritiba 0-2 at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira, Regular Season - 38, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Coritiba 1.02 xG and Corinthians 1.56 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Coritiba fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Coritiba attack 0.80 / defence 1.19 against Corinthians attack 1.17 / defence 0.99, drawn from 75/75 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Coritiba 25% | Draw 25% | Corinthians 50%, with Corinthians to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Coritiba 55%, Corinthians 37%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Coritiba's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Corinthians's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Corinthians arrived the stronger side — 1.49 PPG against 0.96. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Coritiba (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Corinthians (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.05 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.35 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.