Coritiba 0-1 RB Bragantino – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Coritiba at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Coritiba vs RB Bragantino fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 1 sees RB Bragantino travel to Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira to take on Coritiba. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 28 January 2026, 22:00 UTC.
Recent Form
RB Bragantino — All Games: 4W 0D 6L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
RB Bragantino away from home this season: 1W 1D 8L from 10 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Coritiba, 3 for RB Bragantino and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Dec 2023, ended 0–1 with RB Bragantino winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Coritiba 1.54 xG and RB Bragantino 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Coritiba attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | RB Bragantino attack 0.930 / defence 1.110. League average goals — home 1.627 / away 1.036. Data: 0 Coritiba games / 38 RB Bragantino games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Coritiba 47% | Draw 25% | RB Bragantino 27%. Fair-value odds: Coritiba 2.13 | Draw 4.00 | RB Bragantino 3.70. Coritiba hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Coritiba as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Coritiba offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.64 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Coritiba vs RB Bragantino | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira • Kick-off: Wednesday 28 Jan 2026, 22:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Coritiba 47% | Draw 25% | RB Bragantino 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG Coritiba 1.54 / RB Bragantino 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Coritiba attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | RB Bragantino attack 0.930 / def 1.110 | league avg home 1.627 / away 1.036 • Poisson stance: Coritiba (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Coritiba xG
Expected Goals
1.11
RB Bragantino xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Coritiba vs RB Bragantino kick off?
Coritiba vs RB Bragantino kicked off at 22:00 on Wednesday 28 January 2026 at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira.
What was the final score in Coritiba vs RB Bragantino?
Coritiba 0 - 1 RB Bragantino.
Where is Coritiba vs RB Bragantino being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira.
What competition is Coritiba vs RB Bragantino part of?
Coritiba vs RB Bragantino is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Coritiba vs RB Bragantino?
Our statistical model gives Coritiba a 47% chance of winning, RB Bragantino a 27% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Coritiba the favourite.
Will both teams score in Coritiba vs RB Bragantino?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Coritiba and RB Bragantino will score (BTTS).
Will Coritiba vs RB Bragantino have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Coritiba and RB Bragantino?
Record (4 meetings): Coritiba 1W | Draws 0 | RB Bragantino 3W.
What form are Coritiba and RB Bragantino in?
RB Bragantino (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. RB Bragantino away split: 0.40 PPG from 10 | GF 0.70 / GA 2.20 | CS 1.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Coritiba's attack at 0.85x the league average against RB Bragantino's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 1.54 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, RB Bragantino's attack versus Coritiba's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 0/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.3%), 2-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Coritiba Win
47%
2.12
25%
3.93
27%
3.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Coritiba xG
Total xG
2.64
1.11
RB Bragantino xG
2.12
47%
Home win
3.93
25%
Draw
3.65
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
33%
3.03
22%
4.65
Win to Nil
16%
6.42
6%
16.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 7.9 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 12.1 | 6.7 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.3 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.8 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Coritiba vs RB Bragantino?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Coritiba and RB Bragantino expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Coritiba and 1.11 for RB Bragantino, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Coritiba vs RB Bragantino?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Coritiba
Pre-Season
RB Bragantino
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Coritiba's record when hosting RB Bragantino specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Coritiba
1
Draws
4
RB Bragantino
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Coritiba and RB Bragantino?
From 6 meetings on record, Coritiba have won 1, RB Bragantino have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Coritiba and RB Bragantino last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when RB Bragantino 0-0 Coritiba.
Who has won more matches between Coritiba and RB Bragantino?
RB Bragantino have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Coritiba home games / RB Bragantino away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as RB Bragantino defy the odds to beat Coritiba 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
RB Bragantino beat Coritiba 0-1 at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira, Regular Season - 1, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Coritiba 1.54 xG and RB Bragantino 1.11 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Coritiba fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Coritiba attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against RB Bragantino attack 0.93 / defence 1.11, drawn from 0/38 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Coritiba 47% | Draw 25% | RB Bragantino 27%, with Coritiba to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual RB Bragantino win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.