St. Truiden 2-1 Beerschot VA – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates St. Truiden at 63% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this St. Truiden vs Beerschot VA encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium plays host to St. Truiden versus Beerschot VA in Jupiler Pro League, Relegation Round - 5. Kick-off: Sunday 4 May 2025 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
St. Truiden have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
St. Truiden's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Beerschot VA's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Jupiler Pro League this season, Beerschot VA have posted 0W 1D 9L from 10 away outings — 0.10 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.10 is notably below their overall 0.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in St. Truiden's favour (1.40 vs 0.80) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Across 5 previous meetings, St. Truiden are the stronger side on paper — 5 victories to 0, with 0 draws in between.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Mar 2025, ended 1–0 with St. Truiden winning.
The historical record gives St. Truiden a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 5 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading
St. Truiden half-time and goal-timing data (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Beerschot VA half-time and goal-timing data (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — St. Truiden 66% versus Beerschot VA 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (St. Truiden 55% | Beerschot VA 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects St. Truiden 2.06 xG and Beerschot VA 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St. Truiden attack 1.105 / defence 1.117 | Beerschot VA attack 0.707 / defence 1.270. League average goals — home 1.472 / away 1.113. Beerschot VA bring a strong defensive rating of 1.270 — this is suppressing St. Truiden's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 60 St. Truiden games / 30 Beerschot VA games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: St. Truiden 63% | Draw 24% | Beerschot VA 13%. Fair-value odds: St. Truiden 1.59 | Draw 4.17 | Beerschot VA 7.69. The model has a clear lean to St. Truiden (63%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates St. Truiden as the most likely outcome at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.94 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: St. Truiden 70% | Beerschot VA 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: St. Truiden vs Beerschot VA | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Relegation Round - 5 | Venue: Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 4 May 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: St. Truiden 63% | Draw 24% | Beerschot VA 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 53% | xG St. Truiden 2.06 / Beerschot VA 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: St. Truiden attack 1.105 / def 1.117 | Beerschot VA attack 0.707 / def 1.270 | league avg home 1.472 / away 1.113 • Poisson stance: St. Truiden (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.06
St. Truiden xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Beerschot VA xG
53%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does St. Truiden vs Beerschot VA kick off?
St. Truiden vs Beerschot VA kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 4 May 2025 at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium.
What was the final score in St. Truiden vs Beerschot VA?
St. Truiden 2 - 1 Beerschot VA.
Where is St. Truiden vs Beerschot VA being played?
The match is being played at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium.
What competition is St. Truiden vs Beerschot VA part of?
St. Truiden vs Beerschot VA is a Relegation Round - 5 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win St. Truiden vs Beerschot VA?
Our statistical model gives St. Truiden a 63% chance of winning, Beerschot VA a 13% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making St. Truiden the favourite.
Will both teams score in St. Truiden vs Beerschot VA?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both St. Truiden and Beerschot VA will score (BTTS).
Will St. Truiden vs Beerschot VA have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between St. Truiden and Beerschot VA?
Record (5 meetings): St. Truiden 5W | Draws 0 | Beerschot VA 0W.
What form are St. Truiden and Beerschot VA in?
St. Truiden (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Beerschot VA (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates St. Truiden's attack at 1.10x the league average against Beerschot VA's defence at 1.27x — combine the two and it projects 2.06 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Beerschot VA's attack (0.71x) against St. Truiden's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 0.88.
These ratings are built from 60/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 11.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (10.8%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
St. Truiden Win
63%
1.58
24%
4.26
13%
7.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.06
St. Truiden xG
Total xG
2.94
0.88
Beerschot VA xG
1.58
63%
Home win
4.26
24%
Draw
7.47
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
42%
2.41
13%
7.88
Win to Nil
26%
3.82
2%
58.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 10.9 | 9.6 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.2 | 9.9 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 7.7 | 6.8 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for St. Truiden vs Beerschot VA?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are St. Truiden and Beerschot VA expected to score?
The model projects 2.06 expected goals for St. Truiden and 0.88 for Beerschot VA, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for St. Truiden vs Beerschot VA?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 64 outings, St. Truiden have picked up 1.20 PPG on a 19W 20D 25L record — L-W-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Beerschot VA's form line: 21W 14D 29L from 64 games, 1.20 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.20 PPG for St. Truiden against 1.20 for Beerschot VA. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, St. Truiden have posted 1.72 PPG from 32 outings (14W 13D 5L). That's noticeably better than their 1.20 PPG overall — St. Truiden are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Beerschot VA have gone 10W 3D 19L from 32 away games — 1.03 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, St. Truiden come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
St. Truiden are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.72 conceded per game recently; Beerschot VA are on 1.20 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: St. Truiden have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Last 64 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
St. Truiden
Current Season
Beerschot VA
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are St. Truiden and Beerschot VA in coming into this match?
St. Truiden have gone 19W 20D 25L in their last 64 games (1.20 PPG), while Beerschot VA have gone 21W 14D 29L in their last 64 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — St. Truiden at home or Beerschot VA away?
St. Truiden's home record (1.72 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — St. Truiden at home: 1.72 PPG; Beerschot VA away: 1.03 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
St. Truiden go into this on the back of 6 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: St. Truiden won 0-3 on 21 Sep 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, St. Truiden have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Beerschot VA — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
6
St. Truiden
0
Draws
0
Beerschot VA
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between St. Truiden and Beerschot VA?
From 6 meetings on record, St. Truiden have won 6, Beerschot VA have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did St. Truiden and Beerschot VA last play each other?
They last met on 4 May 2025, when St. Truiden 2-1 Beerschot VA.
Who has won more matches between St. Truiden and Beerschot VA?
St. Truiden have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
St. Truiden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Beerschot VA are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — St. Truiden 69%, Beerschot VA 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (St. Truiden) and 62% (Beerschot VA).
On the defensive side: Beerschot VA in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = St. Truiden home games / Beerschot VA away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when St. Truiden play Beerschot VA?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of St. Truiden's games and 53% of Beerschot VA's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is St. Truiden vs Beerschot VA usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of St. Truiden's recent games and 62% of Beerschot VA's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do St. Truiden and Beerschot VA tend to score early?
St. Truiden have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Beerschot VA in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as St. Truiden edge out Beerschot VA 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
St. Truiden beat Beerschot VA 2-1 at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium, Relegation Round - 5, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting St. Truiden 2.06 xG and Beerschot VA 0.88 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of St. Truiden attack 1.10 / defence 1.12 against Beerschot VA attack 0.71 / defence 1.27, drawn from 60/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it St. Truiden 63% | Draw 24% | Beerschot VA 13%, with St. Truiden to win its most likely call at 63%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (St. Truiden 55%, Beerschot VA 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
St. Truiden's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Beerschot VA's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — St. Truiden 1.20 PPG, Beerschot VA 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the St. Truiden win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.