OH Leuven 0-2 Union St. Gilloise – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Union St. Gilloise (44%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as OH Leuven face Union St. Gilloise.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Jupiler Pro League clash, Regular Season - 28 as OH Leuven welcome Union St. Gilloise to King Power at Den Dreef Stadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 2 March 2024 at 17:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, OH Leuven have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: W W L D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for OH Leuven, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, OH Leuven have posted 3W 3D 4L at King Power at Den Dreef Stadion — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Union St. Gilloise stand at 7W 3D 0L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Union St. Gilloise, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Union St. Gilloise's away record: 7W 3D 0L from 10 road trips in Jupiler Pro League this season (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Union St. Gilloise are 1.10 PPG ahead (2.40 vs 1.30), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Union St. Gilloise have the better historical record — 4 wins from 5 previous contests against 1 for OH Leuven.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 12 Aug 2023, ended 1–5 with Union St. Gilloise winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Union St. Gilloise have won 4 of 5 previous encounters, and at 3.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
OH Leuven in-play and half-time data (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Union St. Gilloise in-play and half-time data (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — OH Leuven 59% and Union St. Gilloise 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (OH Leuven 56% | Union St. Gilloise 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects OH Leuven 1.11 xG and Union St. Gilloise 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: OH Leuven attack 0.919 / defence 0.853 | Union St. Gilloise attack 1.351 / defence 0.783. League average goals — home 1.544 / away 1.242. Union St. Gilloise's defence strength of 0.783 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Union St. Gilloise have an above-average attack strength of 1.351 — the away xG of 1.43 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 61 OH Leuven games / 61 Union St. Gilloise games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: OH Leuven 29% | Draw 26% | Union St. Gilloise 44%. Fair-value odds: OH Leuven 3.45 | Draw 3.85 | Union St. Gilloise 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Union St. Gilloise at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Union St. Gilloise offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.54 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: OH Leuven 50% | Union St. Gilloise 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: OH Leuven vs Union St. Gilloise | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: King Power at Den Dreef Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Mar 2024, 17:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: OH Leuven 29% | Draw 26% | Union St. Gilloise 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 51% | xG OH Leuven 1.11 / Union St. Gilloise 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: OH Leuven attack 0.919 / def 0.853 | Union St. Gilloise attack 1.351 / def 0.783 | league avg home 1.544 / away 1.242 • Poisson stance: Union St. Gilloise (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
OH Leuven xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Union St. Gilloise xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does OH Leuven vs Union St. Gilloise kick off?
OH Leuven vs Union St. Gilloise kicked off at 17:15 on Saturday 2 March 2024 at King Power at Den Dreef Stadion.
What was the final score in OH Leuven vs Union St. Gilloise?
OH Leuven 0 - 2 Union St. Gilloise.
Where is OH Leuven vs Union St. Gilloise being played?
The match is being played at King Power at Den Dreef Stadion.
What competition is OH Leuven vs Union St. Gilloise part of?
OH Leuven vs Union St. Gilloise is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win OH Leuven vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our statistical model gives OH Leuven a 29% chance of winning, Union St. Gilloise a 44% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Union St. Gilloise the favourite.
Will both teams score in OH Leuven vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both OH Leuven and Union St. Gilloise will score (BTTS).
Will OH Leuven vs Union St. Gilloise have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between OH Leuven and Union St. Gilloise?
Record (5 meetings): OH Leuven 1W | Draws 0 | Union St. Gilloise 4W.
What form are OH Leuven and Union St. Gilloise in?
OH Leuven (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-D-D. Union St. Gilloise (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from OH Leuven's attack rating (0.92) and Union St. Gilloise's defence rating (0.78), the model arrives at 1.11 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Union St. Gilloise's attack versus OH Leuven's defence, projects 1.43 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 61/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.6%), 0-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Union St. Gilloise Win
29%
3.41
26%
3.80
44%
2.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.3%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
OH Leuven xG
Total xG
2.54
1.43
Union St. Gilloise xG
3.41
29%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
2.25
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
24%
4.18
33%
3.04
Win to Nil
7%
14.27
15%
6.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 11.3 | 8.1 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.5 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 7.0 | 5.0 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for OH Leuven vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are OH Leuven and Union St. Gilloise expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for OH Leuven and 1.43 for Union St. Gilloise, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for OH Leuven vs Union St. Gilloise?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
OH Leuven's recent record stands at 19W 17D 25L from 61 games, a 1.21 PPG return, with W-W-L-D-D in the last five. The sample for OH Leuven is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Union St. Gilloise, meanwhile, have gone 42W 12D 7L across 61 games — 2.26 PPG, with W-W-D-W-W in their last five. The sample for Union St. Gilloise is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Union St. Gilloise by 1.05 — a real, if not enormous, edge over OH Leuven heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, OH Leuven have managed 11W 9D 10L from 30 games — 1.40 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Union St. Gilloise's away record stands at 20W 8D 2L across 30 trips, a 2.27 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union St. Gilloise come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
OH Leuven are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Union St. Gilloise are on 2.11 scored and 1.11 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Union St. Gilloise in 70%.
Last 61 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
OH Leuven
Blended
Union St. Gilloise
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are OH Leuven and Union St. Gilloise in coming into this match?
OH Leuven have gone 19W 17D 25L in their last 61 games (1.21 PPG), while Union St. Gilloise have gone 42W 12D 7L in their last 61 (2.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — OH Leuven at home or Union St. Gilloise away?
Union St. Gilloise's away record (2.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — OH Leuven at home: 1.40 PPG; Union St. Gilloise away: 2.27 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between OH Leuven and Union St. Gilloise runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Aug 2025, when Union St. Gilloise won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
OH Leuven's record when hosting Union St. Gilloise specifically: 0W 2D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
OH Leuven
2
Draws
7
Union St. Gilloise
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between OH Leuven and Union St. Gilloise?
From 10 meetings on record, OH Leuven have won 1, Union St. Gilloise have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did OH Leuven and Union St. Gilloise last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when OH Leuven 0-0 Union St. Gilloise.
Who has won more matches between OH Leuven and Union St. Gilloise?
Union St. Gilloise have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
OH Leuven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Union St. Gilloise are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — OH Leuven at 57%, Union St. Gilloise at 77%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (OH Leuven) and 63% (Union St. Gilloise). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 23% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: OH Leuven have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = OH Leuven home games / Union St. Gilloise away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when OH Leuven play Union St. Gilloise?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of OH Leuven's games and 77% of Union St. Gilloise's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is OH Leuven vs Union St. Gilloise usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of OH Leuven's matches and 63% of Union St. Gilloise's.
Do OH Leuven and Union St. Gilloise tend to score early?
OH Leuven have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, Union St. Gilloise in 87% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Union St. Gilloise cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over OH Leuven.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union St. Gilloise beat OH Leuven 0-2 at King Power at Den Dreef Stadion, Regular Season - 28, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting OH Leuven 1.11 xG and Union St. Gilloise 1.43 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. OH Leuven fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of OH Leuven attack 0.92 / defence 0.85 against Union St. Gilloise attack 1.35 / defence 0.78, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it OH Leuven 29% | Draw 26% | Union St. Gilloise 44%, with Union St. Gilloise to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (OH Leuven 56%, Union St. Gilloise 69%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
OH Leuven's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Union St. Gilloise's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Union St. Gilloise arrived the stronger side — 2.26 PPG against 1.21. The form guide was vindicated by the result. OH Leuven (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.57 scoring average — below par going forward. Union St. Gilloise (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.13 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.