KVC Westerlo 0-1 Charleroi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates KVC Westerlo at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this KVC Westerlo vs Charleroi encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Jupiler Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 28 sees Charleroi travel to Het Kuipje to take on KVC Westerlo. The game is scheduled for Friday 1 March 2024, 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, KVC Westerlo stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for KVC Westerlo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, KVC Westerlo have posted 5W 1D 4L at Het Kuipje — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, Charleroi have recorded 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Charleroi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Jupiler Pro League this season, Charleroi have posted 0W 3D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.30 PPG. Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 0.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
KVC Westerlo are in the better shape of the two on current Jupiler Pro League data — 0.70 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, KVC Westerlo have won 0, Charleroi 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 25 Nov 2023, ended 2–3 with Charleroi winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
KVC Westerlo in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
Charleroi in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — KVC Westerlo 63% and Charleroi 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (KVC Westerlo 65% | Charleroi 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects KVC Westerlo 1.59 xG and Charleroi 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: KVC Westerlo attack 1.071 / defence 1.277 | Charleroi attack 0.590 / defence 0.955. League average goals — home 1.553 / away 1.223. Data: 61 KVC Westerlo games / 60 Charleroi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: KVC Westerlo 53% | Draw 25% | Charleroi 22%. Fair-value odds: KVC Westerlo 1.89 | Draw 4.00 | Charleroi 4.55. KVC Westerlo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, KVC Westerlo are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on KVC Westerlo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.51 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates corroborate: KVC Westerlo 50% | Charleroi 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: KVC Westerlo vs Charleroi | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Het Kuipje • Kick-off: Friday 1 Mar 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: KVC Westerlo 53% | Draw 25% | Charleroi 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 48% | xG KVC Westerlo 1.59 / Charleroi 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: KVC Westerlo attack 1.071 / def 1.277 | Charleroi attack 0.590 / def 0.955 | league avg home 1.553 / away 1.223 • Poisson stance: KVC Westerlo (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
KVC Westerlo xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Charleroi xG
48%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does KVC Westerlo vs Charleroi kick off?
KVC Westerlo vs Charleroi kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 1 March 2024 at Het Kuipje.
What was the final score in KVC Westerlo vs Charleroi?
KVC Westerlo 0 - 1 Charleroi.
Where is KVC Westerlo vs Charleroi being played?
The match is being played at Het Kuipje.
What competition is KVC Westerlo vs Charleroi part of?
KVC Westerlo vs Charleroi is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win KVC Westerlo vs Charleroi?
Our statistical model gives KVC Westerlo a 53% chance of winning, Charleroi a 22% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making KVC Westerlo the favourite.
Will both teams score in KVC Westerlo vs Charleroi?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both KVC Westerlo and Charleroi will score (BTTS).
Will KVC Westerlo vs Charleroi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between KVC Westerlo and Charleroi?
Record (1 meetings): KVC Westerlo 0W | Draws 0 | Charleroi 1W.
What form are KVC Westerlo and Charleroi in?
KVC Westerlo (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-D-W-L. Charleroi (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
KVC Westerlo's attacking strength (1.07x league average) is weighed against Charleroi's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.59. The same calculation in reverse, Charleroi's attack versus KVC Westerlo's defence, projects 0.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 61/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.4%), 2-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
KVC Westerlo Win
53%
1.89
25%
3.94
22%
4.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
KVC Westerlo xG
Total xG
2.51
0.92
Charleroi xG
1.89
53%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
4.60
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
40%
2.51
20%
4.90
Win to Nil
21%
4.76
4%
22.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 7.5 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.9 | 11.9 | 5.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.5 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for KVC Westerlo vs Charleroi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are KVC Westerlo and Charleroi expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for KVC Westerlo and 0.92 for Charleroi, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for KVC Westerlo vs Charleroi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 60 outings, KVC Westerlo have picked up 1.30 PPG on a 20W 18D 22L record — W-L-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for KVC Westerlo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Charleroi's form line: 20W 13D 27L from 60 games, 1.22 PPG, last five W-L-L-D-L. The sample for Charleroi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: KVC Westerlo on 1.30 PPG, Charleroi on 1.22. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, KVC Westerlo have posted 1.37 PPG from 30 outings (12W 5D 13L).
On the road, Charleroi have gone 7W 8D 15L from 30 away games — 0.97 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, KVC Westerlo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
KVC Westerlo are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Charleroi are on 1.17 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: KVC Westerlo have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 60 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
KVC Westerlo
Blended
Charleroi
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are KVC Westerlo and Charleroi in coming into this match?
KVC Westerlo have gone 20W 18D 22L in their last 60 games (1.30 PPG), while Charleroi have gone 20W 13D 27L in their last 60 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — KVC Westerlo at home or Charleroi away?
KVC Westerlo's home record (1.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — KVC Westerlo at home: 1.37 PPG; Charleroi away: 0.97 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 16 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
KVC Westerlo have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
KVC Westerlo's record when hosting Charleroi specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
KVC Westerlo
1
Draws
6
Charleroi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between KVC Westerlo and Charleroi?
From 10 meetings on record, KVC Westerlo have won 3, Charleroi have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did KVC Westerlo and Charleroi last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Charleroi 0-1 KVC Westerlo.
Who has won more matches between KVC Westerlo and Charleroi?
Charleroi have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
KVC Westerlo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — KVC Westerlo 63%, Charleroi 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for KVC Westerlo and 47% for Charleroi. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 57% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Charleroi in 33%; Charleroi in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = KVC Westerlo home games / Charleroi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when KVC Westerlo play Charleroi?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of KVC Westerlo's games and 47% of Charleroi's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is KVC Westerlo vs Charleroi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of KVC Westerlo's matches and 47% of Charleroi's.
Do KVC Westerlo and Charleroi tend to score early?
KVC Westerlo have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Charleroi in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Charleroi defy the odds to beat KVC Westerlo 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Charleroi beat KVC Westerlo 0-1 at Het Kuipje, Regular Season - 28, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting KVC Westerlo 1.59 xG and Charleroi 0.92 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. KVC Westerlo fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of KVC Westerlo attack 1.07 / defence 1.28 against Charleroi attack 0.59 / defence 0.95, drawn from 61/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it KVC Westerlo 53% | Draw 25% | Charleroi 22%, with KVC Westerlo to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Charleroi win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (KVC Westerlo 65%, Charleroi 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
KVC Westerlo's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Charleroi's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — KVC Westerlo 1.30 PPG, Charleroi 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Charleroi win broke the near-deadlock. KVC Westerlo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.03 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.87 average — tighter than their form line. Charleroi (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.