Genk 4-0 Dender – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Genk at 49% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Genk face Dender.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Genk welcome Dender to Cegeka Arena in Jupiler Pro League (matchday 8). Kick-off is Sunday 22 September 2024 at 18:30 UK time.
Form Guide
Genk — last 10 games: 6W 1D 3L, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: W W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Genk's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across their last 10 home games (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across their last 10 games, Dender have recorded 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D L W L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Dender have posted 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 away outings — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.90 PPG (Genk) versus 1.70 (Dender). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Trading Patterns
Genk in-play and half-time data (last 37 games, 18 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Dender in-play and half-time data (last 37 games, 18 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 46%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Genk 51% versus Dender 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Genk 54% | Dender 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Genk 1.68 xG and Dender 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Genk attack 0.984 / defence 0.832 | Dender attack 1.136 / defence 1.152. League average goals — home 1.485 / away 1.201. Data: built from Genk's last 37 games and Dender's last 7.
Result probabilities: Genk 49% | Draw 26% | Dender 25%. Fair-value odds: Genk 2.03 | Draw 3.89 | Dender 4.02. Genk hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Genk at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Genk offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.82 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Genk 30% (last 10 home games) | Dender 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Genk vs Dender | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, matchday 8 | Venue: Cegeka Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 22 September 2024 at 18:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Genk 49% | Draw 26% | Dender 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% (Under 46%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG Genk 1.68 / Dender 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Genk attack 0.984 / def 0.832 | Dender attack 1.136 / def 1.152 | league avg home 1.485 / away 1.201 • Poisson stance: Genk (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
Genk xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Dender xG
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Genk vs Dender FAQs
What time does Genk vs Dender kick off?
Genk vs Dender kicked off at 18:30 UK time on Sunday 22 September 2024 at Cegeka Arena.
What was the final score in Genk vs Dender?
Genk 4 - 0 Dender.
Where is Genk vs Dender being played?
The match is being played at Cegeka Arena.
What competition is Genk vs Dender part of?
Genk vs Dender is a Jupiler Pro League fixture (matchday 8) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Genk vs Dender?
Our statistical model gives Genk a 49% chance of winning, Dender a 25% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Genk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Genk vs Dender?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Genk and Dender will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Genk vs Dender have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Genk's attack rating (0.98) and Dender's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.68 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Dender's attack versus Genk's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Genk's last 37 games and Dender's last 7 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Genk Win
49%
2.03
26%
3.89
25%
4.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
Genk xG
Total xG
2.82
1.14
Dender xG
2.03
49%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
4.02
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
32%
3.11
19%
5.38
Win to Nil
16%
6.30
5%
21.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 6.8 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 11.4 | 6.5 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.6 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 5.4 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Genk vs Dender Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Genk vs Dender?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Genk and Dender expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Genk and 1.14 for Dender, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Genk vs Dender?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 37 outings, Genk have picked up 1.57 PPG on a 17W 7D 13L record — W-W-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Dender's form line: 18W 11D 8L from 37 games, 1.76 PPG, last five W-D-L-W-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Genk on 1.57 PPG, Dender on 1.76. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Genk have posted 1.89 PPG from their last 18 home games (10W 4D 4L).
On the road, Dender have gone 10W 5D 3L from their last 18 away games — 1.94 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Genk are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Dender are on 1.81 scored and 1.14 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dender in 62%.
Defensively: Dender in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 37 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Genk
Early Season
Dender
Early Season
Genk (Home) vs Dender (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Genk
Early Season
Dender
Early Season
❓ Genk vs Dender Form FAQs
What form are Genk and Dender in coming into this match?
Genk have gone 17W 7D 13L in their last 37 games (1.57 PPG), while Dender have gone 18W 11D 8L in their last 37 (1.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Genk at home or Dender away?
Dender's away record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Genk at home: 1.89 PPG; Dender away: 1.94 PPG.
Have Genk or Dender been keeping clean sheets recently?
Genk have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Dender in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2024. All of them came in Jupiler Pro League. The most recent was on 1 February 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Genk have taken the most recent 4 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 22 Sep 2024, when Genk won Genk 4-0 Dender.
Genk's record when hosting Dender specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
4
Genk
0
Draws
0
Dender
Recent Meetings
❓ Genk vs Dender H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Genk and Dender?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Genk have won 4, Dender have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Genk and Dender last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 February 2026: Dender 1-2 Genk.
Who has won more matches between Genk and Dender?
Genk have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Genk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Dender are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 62% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Genk 39%, Dender 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Genk) and 61% (Dender). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 28% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Genk keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Dender in 33%; Genk have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Genk home games / Dender away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Genk vs Dender Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Genk and Dender matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Genk's recent matches and 67% of Dender's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Genk and Dender matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Genk's matches and 61% of Dender's.
Do Genk and Dender matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 72% of Genk's recent matches and 83% of Dender's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Genk run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Dender.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Genk beat Dender 4-0 at Cegeka Arena, Regular Season - 8, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Genk 1.68 xG and Dender 1.14 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Genk beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Dender landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Genk attack 0.98 / defence 0.83 against Dender attack 1.14 / defence 1.15, drawn from 37/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Genk 49% | Draw 26% | Dender 25%, with Genk to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Genk 54%, Dender 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Genk's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.
Dender's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Genk 1.57 PPG, Dender 1.76 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Genk win broke the near-deadlock. Genk (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.44 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.94 average — tighter than their form line. Dender (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.89 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.