OH Leuven 1-1 Kortrijk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates OH Leuven at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this OH Leuven vs Kortrijk fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
OH Leuven and Kortrijk meet at King Power at Den Dreef Stadion in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 8. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 22 September 2024 at 18:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
OH Leuven have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: D D D W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. OH Leuven have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
OH Leuven's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 games at King Power at Den Dreef Stadion this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — OH Leuven are significantly better at King Power at Den Dreef Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Kortrijk's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L W L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Kortrijk have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Kortrijk away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 6 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for OH Leuven, 2 for Kortrijk and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Jan 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
OH Leuven goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Kortrijk goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — OH Leuven 58% versus Kortrijk 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (OH Leuven 49% | Kortrijk 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects OH Leuven 1.88 xG and Kortrijk 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: OH Leuven attack 1.088 / defence 0.854 | Kortrijk attack 0.897 / defence 1.132. League average goals — home 1.525 / away 1.182. Data: 37 OH Leuven games / 37 Kortrijk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: OH Leuven 59% | Draw 24% | Kortrijk 17%. Fair-value odds: OH Leuven 1.69 | Draw 4.17 | Kortrijk 5.88. The model has a clear lean to OH Leuven (59%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates OH Leuven as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.79 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: OH Leuven 60% | Kortrijk 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: OH Leuven vs Kortrijk | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: King Power at Den Dreef Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Sep 2024, 18:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: OH Leuven 59% | Draw 24% | Kortrijk 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 51% | xG OH Leuven 1.88 / Kortrijk 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: OH Leuven attack 1.088 / def 0.854 | Kortrijk attack 0.897 / def 1.132 | league avg home 1.525 / away 1.182 • Poisson stance: OH Leuven (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.88
OH Leuven xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Kortrijk xG
51%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does OH Leuven vs Kortrijk kick off?
OH Leuven vs Kortrijk kicked off at 18:15 on Sunday 22 September 2024 at King Power at Den Dreef Stadion.
What was the final score in OH Leuven vs Kortrijk?
OH Leuven 1 - 1 Kortrijk.
Where is OH Leuven vs Kortrijk being played?
The match is being played at King Power at Den Dreef Stadion.
What competition is OH Leuven vs Kortrijk part of?
OH Leuven vs Kortrijk is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win OH Leuven vs Kortrijk?
Our statistical model gives OH Leuven a 59% chance of winning, Kortrijk a 17% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making OH Leuven the favourite.
Will both teams score in OH Leuven vs Kortrijk?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both OH Leuven and Kortrijk will score (BTTS).
Will OH Leuven vs Kortrijk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between OH Leuven and Kortrijk?
Record (6 meetings): OH Leuven 3W | Draws 1 | Kortrijk 2W.
What form are OH Leuven and Kortrijk in?
OH Leuven (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-D-W-L. Kortrijk (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from OH Leuven's attack rating (1.09) and Kortrijk's defence rating (1.13), the model arrives at 1.88 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Kortrijk's attack (0.90x) against OH Leuven's defence (0.85x) — and the away total comes out at 0.91.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.9%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.9%), 1-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
OH Leuven Win
59%
1.68
24%
4.22
17%
5.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
10.9%
Home win
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.88
OH Leuven xG
Total xG
2.79
0.91
Kortrijk xG
1.68
59%
Home win
4.22
24%
Draw
5.92
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
40%
2.47
15%
6.55
Win to Nil
24%
4.16
3%
38.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.6 | 10.5 | 4.8 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.9 | 9.9 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.8 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.2 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for OH Leuven vs Kortrijk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are OH Leuven and Kortrijk expected to score?
The model projects 1.88 expected goals for OH Leuven and 0.91 for Kortrijk, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for OH Leuven vs Kortrijk?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 45 outings, OH Leuven have picked up 1.18 PPG on a 13W 14D 18L record — D-D-D-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for OH Leuven, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Kortrijk's form line: 12W 8D 25L from 45 games, 0.98 PPG, last five L-W-L-D-L. It's still early in the season for Kortrijk, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.18 PPG for OH Leuven against 0.98 for Kortrijk. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, OH Leuven have posted 1.59 PPG from 22 outings (10W 5D 7L). That's noticeably better than their 1.18 PPG overall — OH Leuven are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Kortrijk have gone 5W 4D 13L from 22 away games — 0.86 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, OH Leuven come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
OH Leuven are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Kortrijk are on 0.87 scored and 1.78 conceded.
Last 45 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
OH Leuven
Early Season
Kortrijk
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are OH Leuven and Kortrijk in coming into this match?
OH Leuven have gone 13W 14D 18L in their last 45 games (1.18 PPG), while Kortrijk have gone 12W 8D 25L in their last 45 (0.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — OH Leuven at home or Kortrijk away?
OH Leuven's home record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — OH Leuven at home: 1.59 PPG; Kortrijk away: 0.86 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: OH Leuven won 3-0 on 1 Sep 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, OH Leuven have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Kortrijk — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
OH Leuven
2
Draws
3
Kortrijk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between OH Leuven and Kortrijk?
From 8 meetings on record, OH Leuven have won 3, Kortrijk have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did OH Leuven and Kortrijk last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2025, when Kortrijk 2-0 OH Leuven.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
OH Leuven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Kortrijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — OH Leuven 54%, Kortrijk 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (OH Leuven) and 50% (Kortrijk).
On the defensive side: OH Leuven keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Kortrijk in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = OH Leuven home games / Kortrijk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when OH Leuven play Kortrijk?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of OH Leuven's recent matches and 36% of Kortrijk's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is OH Leuven vs Kortrijk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of OH Leuven's recent games and 50% of Kortrijk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do OH Leuven and Kortrijk tend to score early?
OH Leuven have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Kortrijk in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
OH Leuven and Kortrijk share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at King Power at Den Dreef Stadion, Regular Season - 8, as OH Leuven and Kortrijk drew 1-1 in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting OH Leuven 1.88 xG and Kortrijk 0.91 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. OH Leuven fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of OH Leuven attack 1.09 / defence 0.85 against Kortrijk attack 0.90 / defence 1.13, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it OH Leuven 59% | Draw 24% | Kortrijk 17%, with OH Leuven to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (OH Leuven 49%, Kortrijk 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
OH Leuven's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Kortrijk's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — OH Leuven 1.18 PPG, Kortrijk 0.98 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Kortrijk (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.95 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.