Genk 2-1 Anderlecht – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Genk at 43% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Genk vs Anderlecht encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Cegeka Arena plays host to Genk versus Anderlecht in Jupiler Pro League, Championship Round - 10. Kick-off: Sunday 25 May 2025 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Genk have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: D L L L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Cegeka Arena, Genk have gone 6W 1D 3L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Cegeka Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Genk are significantly better at Cegeka Arena than their overall form suggests.
Anderlecht (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: W W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling in Jupiler Pro League this season, Anderlecht have posted 5W 0D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Genk have seen both teams score in just 30% of their matches, Anderlecht in only 10%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 6 head-to-head meetings have produced 4 wins for Genk, 2 for Anderlecht and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Apr 2025, ended 2–1 with Genk winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Genk goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (79 games, 39 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Anderlecht goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (79 games, 39 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Genk 51% versus Anderlecht 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Genk 52% | Anderlecht 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Genk 1.27 xG and Anderlecht 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Genk attack 1.112 / defence 0.810 | Anderlecht attack 1.007 / defence 0.776. League average goals — home 1.473 / away 1.113. Anderlecht's defence strength of 0.776 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 60 Genk games / 60 Anderlecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Genk 43% | Draw 33% | Anderlecht 24%. Fair-value odds: Genk 2.33 | Draw 3.03 | Anderlecht 4.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.18. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.18 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Genk at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Genk if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.18 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates corroborate: Genk 30% | Anderlecht 10% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Genk vs Anderlecht | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Championship Round - 10 | Venue: Cegeka Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 25 May 2025, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Genk 43% | Draw 33% | Anderlecht 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 45% | xG Genk 1.27 / Anderlecht 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Genk attack 1.112 / def 0.810 | Anderlecht attack 1.007 / def 0.776 | league avg home 1.473 / away 1.113 • Poisson stance: Genk (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Genk xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Anderlecht xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Genk vs Anderlecht kick off?
Genk vs Anderlecht kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 25 May 2025 at Cegeka Arena.
What was the final score in Genk vs Anderlecht?
Genk 2 - 1 Anderlecht.
Where is Genk vs Anderlecht being played?
The match is being played at Cegeka Arena.
What competition is Genk vs Anderlecht part of?
Genk vs Anderlecht is a Championship Round - 10 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Genk vs Anderlecht?
Our statistical model gives Genk a 43% chance of winning, Anderlecht a 24% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Genk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Genk vs Anderlecht?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Genk and Anderlecht will score (BTTS).
Will Genk vs Anderlecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Genk and Anderlecht?
Record (6 meetings): Genk 4W | Draws 0 | Anderlecht 2W.
What form are Genk and Anderlecht in?
Genk (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-L-L-W. Anderlecht (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Genk's attack at 1.11x the league average against Anderlecht's defence at 0.78x — combine the two and it projects 1.27 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Anderlecht's attack (1.01x) against Genk's defence (0.81x) — and the away total comes out at 0.91.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.0%), 1-0 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Genk Win
43%
2.35
33%
3.02
24%
4.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
11.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Genk xG
Total xG
2.18
0.91
Anderlecht xG
2.35
43%
Home win
3.02
33%
Draw
4.11
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
40%
2.48
28%
3.56
Win to Nil
17%
5.83
7%
14.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.3 | 10.3 | 4.7 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.4 | 13.1 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 8.3 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 3.9 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Genk vs Anderlecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Genk and Anderlecht expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Genk and 0.91 for Anderlecht, a combined total of 2.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Genk vs Anderlecht?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Genk's recent record stands at 39W 18D 22L from 79 games, a 1.71 PPG return, with D-L-L-L-W in the last five.
Anderlecht, meanwhile, have gone 40W 18D 21L across 79 games — 1.75 PPG, with W-W-W-L-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.71 PPG for Genk against 1.75 for Anderlecht. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Genk have managed 23W 9D 7L from 39 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Anderlecht's away record stands at 16W 11D 12L across 39 trips, a 1.51 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Genk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Genk are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Anderlecht are on 1.66 scored and 1.01 conceded.
Last 79 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Genk
Current Season
Anderlecht
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Genk and Anderlecht in coming into this match?
Genk have gone 39W 18D 22L in their last 79 games (1.71 PPG), while Anderlecht have gone 40W 18D 21L in their last 79 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Genk at home or Anderlecht away?
Genk's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Genk at home: 2.00 PPG; Anderlecht away: 1.51 PPG.
Have Genk or Anderlecht been keeping clean sheets recently?
Genk have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Anderlecht in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 6 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Genk have gone 4W 0D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Anderlecht — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Genk
2
Draws
2
Anderlecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Genk and Anderlecht?
From 10 meetings on record, Genk have won 6, Anderlecht have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Genk and Anderlecht last play each other?
They last met on 6 September 2026, when Anderlecht 0-0 Genk.
Who has won more matches between Genk and Anderlecht?
Genk have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Genk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Anderlecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Genk 41%, Anderlecht 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Genk) and 46% (Anderlecht).
On the defensive side: Genk keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Anderlecht in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Genk home games / Anderlecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Genk play Anderlecht?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Genk's recent matches and 54% of Anderlecht's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Genk vs Anderlecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Genk's recent games and 46% of Anderlecht's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Genk and Anderlecht tend to score early?
Genk have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Anderlecht in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Genk edge out Anderlecht 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Genk beat Anderlecht 2-1 at Cegeka Arena, Championship Round - 10, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Genk 1.27 xG and Anderlecht 0.91 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Genk attack 1.11 / defence 0.81 against Anderlecht attack 1.01 / defence 0.78, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Genk 43% | Draw 33% | Anderlecht 24%, with Genk to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Genk 52%, Anderlecht 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Genk's trading profile (79 games, 39 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Anderlecht's trading profile (79 games, 39 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Genk 1.71 PPG, Anderlecht 1.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Genk win broke the near-deadlock. Anderlecht (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.