Charleroi 1-2 Union St. Gilloise – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 38% as Charleroi take on Union St. Gilloise.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Jupiler Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 21 sees Union St. Gilloise travel to Stade du Pays de Charleroi to take on Charleroi. The game is scheduled for Saturday 11 January 2025, 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Charleroi stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W L W W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Charleroi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Charleroi have posted 6W 2D 2L at Stade du Pays de Charleroi — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Charleroi are significantly better at Stade du Pays de Charleroi than their overall form suggests.
Union St. Gilloise — All Games: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D W D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Union St. Gilloise, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Union St. Gilloise away from home this season: 1W 7D 2L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Charleroi) versus 1.70 (Union St. Gilloise). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Union St. Gilloise have the better historical record — 6 wins from 6 previous contests against 0 for Charleroi.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Aug 2024, ended 0–1 with Union St. Gilloise winning.
It is worth noting that Union St. Gilloise have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 6 wins from 6 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Data
Charleroi trading profile (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Union St. Gilloise trading profile (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charleroi 46% versus Union St. Gilloise 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charleroi 43% | Union St. Gilloise 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charleroi 0.95 xG and Union St. Gilloise 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charleroi attack 0.814 / defence 0.921 | Union St. Gilloise attack 1.024 / defence 0.732. League average goals — home 1.603 / away 1.081. Union St. Gilloise's defence strength of 0.732 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 50 Charleroi games / 50 Union St. Gilloise games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Charleroi 29% | Draw 38% | Union St. Gilloise 33%. Fair-value odds: Charleroi 3.45 | Draw 2.63 | Union St. Gilloise 3.03. The draw (38%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 1.98. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.98 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 38% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 29% and away win at 33% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.98 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 32% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates corroborate: Charleroi 40% | Union St. Gilloise 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charleroi vs Union St. Gilloise | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stade du Pays de Charleroi • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Jan 2025, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charleroi 29% | Draw 38% | Union St. Gilloise 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 43% | xG Charleroi 0.95 / Union St. Gilloise 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Charleroi attack 0.814 / def 0.921 | Union St. Gilloise attack 1.024 / def 0.732 | league avg home 1.603 / away 1.081 • Poisson stance: Draw (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Charleroi xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Union St. Gilloise xG
43%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Charleroi vs Union St. Gilloise kick off?
Charleroi vs Union St. Gilloise kicked off at 19:45 on Saturday 11 January 2025 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What was the final score in Charleroi vs Union St. Gilloise?
Charleroi 1 - 2 Union St. Gilloise.
Where is Charleroi vs Union St. Gilloise being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What competition is Charleroi vs Union St. Gilloise part of?
Charleroi vs Union St. Gilloise is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Charleroi vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our statistical model gives Charleroi a 29% chance of winning, Union St. Gilloise a 33% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Charleroi vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Charleroi and Union St. Gilloise will score (BTTS).
Will Charleroi vs Union St. Gilloise have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and Union St. Gilloise?
Record (6 meetings): Charleroi 0W | Draws 0 | Union St. Gilloise 6W.
What form are Charleroi and Union St. Gilloise in?
Charleroi (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-L-W-W. Union St. Gilloise (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Charleroi's attacking strength (0.81x league average) is weighed against Union St. Gilloise's defensive record (0.73x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.95. The same calculation in reverse, Union St. Gilloise's attack versus Charleroi's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 0-1 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
29%
3.39
38%
2.65
33%
3.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.2%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.9%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Charleroi xG
Total xG
1.98
1.02
Union St. Gilloise xG
3.39
29%
Home win
2.65
38%
Draw
3.04
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.35
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
36%
2.77
38%
2.60
Win to Nil
11%
9.41
13%
7.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.9 | 14.2 | 7.2 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.3 | 13.5 | 6.9 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 6.5 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Charleroi vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.6%.
How many goals are Charleroi and Union St. Gilloise expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Charleroi and 1.02 for Union St. Gilloise, a combined total of 1.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Charleroi vs Union St. Gilloise?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Charleroi's recent record stands at 20W 12D 24L from 56 games, a 1.29 PPG return, with D-W-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for Charleroi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Union St. Gilloise, meanwhile, have gone 29W 19D 8L across 56 games — 1.89 PPG, with W-D-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for Union St. Gilloise is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Union St. Gilloise by 0.60 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Charleroi heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Charleroi have managed 13W 7D 7L from 27 games — 1.70 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.29 PPG overall — Charleroi are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Union St. Gilloise's away record stands at 11W 12D 4L across 27 trips, a 1.67 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Charleroi are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Union St. Gilloise are on 1.79 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Union St. Gilloise in 62%.
Last 56 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charleroi
Blended
Union St. Gilloise
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Charleroi and Union St. Gilloise in coming into this match?
Charleroi have gone 20W 12D 24L in their last 56 games (1.29 PPG), while Union St. Gilloise have gone 29W 19D 8L in their last 56 (1.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charleroi at home or Union St. Gilloise away?
Charleroi's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charleroi at home: 1.70 PPG; Union St. Gilloise away: 1.67 PPG.
Have Charleroi or Union St. Gilloise been keeping clean sheets recently?
Charleroi have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Union St. Gilloise in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Charleroi and Union St. Gilloise runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to February 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 5 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Feb 2022, when Union St. Gilloise won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Charleroi's record when hosting Union St. Gilloise specifically: 0W 1D 5L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Charleroi
1
Draws
9
Union St. Gilloise
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and Union St. Gilloise?
From 10 meetings on record, Charleroi have won 0, Union St. Gilloise have won 9, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Charleroi and Union St. Gilloise last play each other?
They last met on 5 September 2026, when Charleroi 2-3 Union St. Gilloise.
Who has won more matches between Charleroi and Union St. Gilloise?
Union St. Gilloise have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Union St. Gilloise are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Charleroi 56%, Union St. Gilloise 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Charleroi) and 48% (Union St. Gilloise).
On the defensive side: Charleroi keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charleroi home games / Union St. Gilloise away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Charleroi play Union St. Gilloise?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Charleroi's games and 63% of Union St. Gilloise's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Charleroi vs Union St. Gilloise usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Charleroi's recent games and 48% of Union St. Gilloise's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Charleroi and Union St. Gilloise tend to score early?
Charleroi have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Union St. Gilloise in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Union St. Gilloise edge out Charleroi 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union St. Gilloise beat Charleroi 1-2 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Regular Season - 21, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Charleroi 0.95 xG and Union St. Gilloise 1.02 xG, a combined 1.98. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Union St. Gilloise outscored their 1.02 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charleroi attack 0.81 / defence 0.92 against Union St. Gilloise attack 1.02 / defence 0.73, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Charleroi 29% | Draw 38% | Union St. Gilloise 33%, with the draw its most likely call at 38%. The actual Union St. Gilloise win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charleroi 43%, Union St. Gilloise 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Charleroi's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Union St. Gilloise's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Union St. Gilloise arrived the stronger side — 1.89 PPG against 1.29. Form held, and they took the win. Charleroi (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.