Charleroi 2-1 OH Leuven – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Charleroi at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Charleroi vs OH Leuven encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade du Pays de Charleroi plays host to Charleroi versus OH Leuven in Jupiler Pro League, Conference League Play-off Group - 10. Kick-off: Saturday 24 May 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Charleroi have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: L W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Charleroi have posted 5W 2D 3L at Stade du Pays de Charleroi — 1.70 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans.
OH Leuven (all games): 2W 5D 3L across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: W D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Jupiler Pro League this season, OH Leuven have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The points-per-game gap of 0.70 in Charleroi's favour (1.80 vs 1.10) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Charleroi, 2 for OH Leuven and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 0.8 per game from 4 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Mar 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Charleroi goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (75 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
OH Leuven goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (75 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charleroi 51% versus OH Leuven 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charleroi 44% | OH Leuven 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charleroi 1.37 xG and OH Leuven 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charleroi attack 0.912 / defence 0.930 | OH Leuven attack 0.796 / defence 1.020. League average goals — home 1.473 / away 1.113. Data: 60 Charleroi games / 60 OH Leuven games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Charleroi 48% | Draw 32% | OH Leuven 20%. Fair-value odds: Charleroi 2.08 | Draw 3.12 | OH Leuven 5.00. Charleroi hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
OH Leuven lead the H2H ledger, but Charleroi carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Charleroi at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Charleroi if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.19 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 0.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates corroborate: Charleroi 50% | OH Leuven 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charleroi vs OH Leuven | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Conference League Play-off Group - 10 | Venue: Stade du Pays de Charleroi • Kick-off: Saturday 24 May 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charleroi 48% | Draw 32% | OH Leuven 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 44% | xG Charleroi 1.37 / OH Leuven 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Charleroi attack 0.912 / def 0.930 | OH Leuven attack 0.796 / def 1.020 | league avg home 1.473 / away 1.113 • Poisson stance: Charleroi (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Charleroi xG
Expected Goals
0.82
OH Leuven xG
44%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Charleroi vs OH Leuven kick off?
Charleroi vs OH Leuven kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 24 May 2025 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What was the final score in Charleroi vs OH Leuven?
Charleroi 2 - 1 OH Leuven.
Where is Charleroi vs OH Leuven being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What competition is Charleroi vs OH Leuven part of?
Charleroi vs OH Leuven is a Conference League Play-off Group - 10 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Charleroi vs OH Leuven?
Our statistical model gives Charleroi a 48% chance of winning, OH Leuven a 20% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Charleroi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charleroi vs OH Leuven?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Charleroi and OH Leuven will score (BTTS).
Will Charleroi vs OH Leuven have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and OH Leuven?
Record (4 meetings): Charleroi 0W | Draws 2 | OH Leuven 2W.
What form are Charleroi and OH Leuven in?
Charleroi (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-W-W-D. OH Leuven (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Charleroi's attack at 0.91x the league average against OH Leuven's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.37 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — OH Leuven's attack (0.80x) against Charleroi's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 0.82.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (13.6%), 0-0 (12.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Charleroi Win
48%
2.10
32%
3.12
20%
4.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Charleroi xG
Total xG
2.19
0.82
OH Leuven xG
2.10
48%
Home win
3.12
32%
Draw
4.89
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
44%
2.28
25%
3.93
Win to Nil
21%
4.80
5%
19.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 9.2 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.3 | 12.6 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.5 | 8.6 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.8 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Charleroi vs OH Leuven?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Charleroi and OH Leuven expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Charleroi and 0.82 for OH Leuven, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Charleroi vs OH Leuven?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 75 outings, Charleroi have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 27W 19D 29L record — L-W-W-W-D across the most recent five.
OH Leuven's form line: 20W 27D 28L from 75 games, 1.16 PPG, last five W-D-L-L-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.33 PPG for Charleroi against 1.16 for OH Leuven. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Charleroi have posted 1.70 PPG from 37 outings (18W 9D 10L).
On the road, OH Leuven have gone 5W 14D 18L from 37 away games — 0.78 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Charleroi come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Charleroi are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; OH Leuven are on 1.07 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 75 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charleroi
Current Season
OH Leuven
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Charleroi and OH Leuven in coming into this match?
Charleroi have gone 27W 19D 29L in their last 75 games (1.33 PPG), while OH Leuven have gone 20W 27D 28L in their last 75 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charleroi at home or OH Leuven away?
Charleroi's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charleroi at home: 1.70 PPG; OH Leuven away: 0.78 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to February 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 9 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Charleroi have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against OH Leuven — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Charleroi
4
Draws
3
OH Leuven
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and OH Leuven?
From 10 meetings on record, Charleroi have won 3, OH Leuven have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Charleroi and OH Leuven last play each other?
They last met on 9 August 2026, when Charleroi 3-1 OH Leuven.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
OH Leuven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Charleroi 54%, OH Leuven 49% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Charleroi) and 40% (OH Leuven).
On the defensive side: Charleroi keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; OH Leuven in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charleroi home games / OH Leuven away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Charleroi play OH Leuven?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Charleroi's recent matches and 49% of OH Leuven's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Charleroi vs OH Leuven usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Charleroi's recent games and 40% of OH Leuven's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Charleroi and OH Leuven tend to score early?
Charleroi have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, OH Leuven in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Charleroi edge out OH Leuven 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Charleroi beat OH Leuven 2-1 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Conference League Play-off Group - 10, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Charleroi 1.37 xG and OH Leuven 0.82 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charleroi attack 0.91 / defence 0.93 against OH Leuven attack 0.80 / defence 1.02, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Charleroi 48% | Draw 32% | OH Leuven 20%, with Charleroi to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charleroi 44%, OH Leuven 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Charleroi's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
OH Leuven's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Charleroi 1.33 PPG, OH Leuven 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Charleroi win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.