Charleroi vs Lommel United – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Charleroi at 60% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Charleroi vs Lommel United encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Jupiler Pro League clash, Regular Season - 27 as Charleroi welcome Lommel United to Stade du Pays de Charleroi. Kick-off is set for Saturday 3 April 2027 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Charleroi stand at 8W 1D 1L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Charleroi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Charleroi have gone 5W 1D 4L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.60 lags behind their overall 2.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stade du Pays de Charleroi this season.
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, Lommel United have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Lommel United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lommel United's away record: 5W 3D 2L from 10 road trips in Jupiler Pro League this season (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Charleroi carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.00 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.50 vs 1.50. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Charleroi register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Lommel United in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Charleroi, 0 for Lommel United and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 16 Aug 2026, ended 1–0 with Charleroi winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Charleroi in-play tendencies (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Lommel United in-play tendencies (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charleroi 50% versus Lommel United 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charleroi 41% | Lommel United 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charleroi 2.36 xG and Lommel United 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charleroi attack 1.277 / defence 1.088 | Lommel United attack 0.947 / defence 1.167. League average goals — home 1.582 / away 1.302. Charleroi carry an above-average attack strength of 1.277 — their λ of 2.36 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 38 Charleroi games / 8 Lommel United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Charleroi 60% | Draw 19% | Lommel United 21%. Fair-value odds: Charleroi 1.67 | Draw 5.26 | Lommel United 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Charleroi (60%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.70. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.70 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (2.36 / 1.34) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Charleroi are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.70 combined xG gives a 71% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 67% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Charleroi 60% | Lommel United 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charleroi vs Lommel United | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Stade du Pays de Charleroi • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Apr 2027, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charleroi 60% | Draw 19% | Lommel United 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 67% | xG Charleroi 2.36 / Lommel United 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Charleroi attack 1.277 / def 1.088 | Lommel United attack 0.947 / def 1.167 | league avg home 1.582 / away 1.302 • Poisson stance: Charleroi (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.36
Charleroi xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Lommel United xG
67%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
51%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Charleroi vs Lommel United kick off?
Charleroi vs Lommel United is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Saturday 3 April 2027 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
Where is Charleroi vs Lommel United being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What competition is Charleroi vs Lommel United part of?
Charleroi vs Lommel United is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Charleroi vs Lommel United?
Our statistical model gives Charleroi a 60% chance of winning, Lommel United a 21% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Charleroi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charleroi vs Lommel United?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Charleroi and Lommel United will score (BTTS).
Will Charleroi vs Lommel United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and Lommel United?
Record (1 meetings): Charleroi 1W | Draws 0 | Lommel United 0W.
What form are Charleroi and Lommel United in?
Charleroi (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. Lommel United (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Charleroi's attack at 1.28x the league average against Lommel United's defence at 1.17x — combine the two and it projects 2.36 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Lommel United's attack versus Charleroi's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (8.9%), 3-1 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Charleroi Win
60%
1.67
19%
5.22
21%
4.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.8%
Draw
3 – 1
7.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.36
Charleroi xG
Total xG
3.70
1.34
Lommel United xG
1.67
60%
Home win
5.22
19%
Draw
4.81
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
51%
Over 3.5
1.96
49%
Under 3.5
2.04
31%
Over 4.5
3.23
69%
Under 4.5
1.45
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.50
33%
BTTS No
3.01
Clean Sheet
26%
3.82
9%
10.56
Win to Nil
16%
6.36
2%
50.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.5 | 3.3 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 7.8 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.2 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 7.3 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.2 | 4.3 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Charleroi vs Lommel United?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.2%.
How many goals are Charleroi and Lommel United expected to score?
The model projects 2.36 expected goals for Charleroi and 1.34 for Lommel United, a combined total of 3.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Charleroi vs Lommel United?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Charleroi's recent record stands at 21W 7D 18L from 46 games, a 1.52 PPG return, with W-L-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Charleroi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lommel United, meanwhile, have gone 23W 11D 12L across 46 games — 1.74 PPG, with W-L-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for Lommel United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Charleroi on 1.52 PPG, Lommel United on 1.74. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Charleroi have managed 9W 5D 9L from 23 games — 1.39 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Lommel United's away record stands at 11W 7D 5L across 23 trips, a 1.74 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Charleroi are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Lommel United are on 1.78 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Last 46 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charleroi
Blended
Lommel United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Charleroi and Lommel United in coming into this match?
Charleroi have gone 21W 7D 18L in their last 46 games (1.52 PPG), while Lommel United have gone 23W 11D 12L in their last 46 (1.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charleroi at home or Lommel United away?
Lommel United's away record (1.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charleroi at home: 1.39 PPG; Lommel United away: 1.74 PPG.
Have Charleroi or Lommel United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Charleroi have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Lommel United in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
1 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 16 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
1
Charleroi
0
Draws
0
Lommel United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and Lommel United?
From 1 meetings on record, Charleroi have won 1, Lommel United have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Charleroi and Lommel United last play each other?
They last met on 16 August 2026, when Lommel United 0-1 Charleroi.
Who has won more matches between Charleroi and Lommel United?
Charleroi have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Lommel United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Charleroi 61%, Lommel United 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Charleroi) and 61% (Lommel United).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charleroi home games / Lommel United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Charleroi play Lommel United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Charleroi's games and 61% of Lommel United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Charleroi vs Lommel United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Charleroi's recent games and 61% of Lommel United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Charleroi and Lommel United tend to score early?
Charleroi have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Lommel United in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.