Beerschot VA 2-2 Kortrijk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Beerschot VA at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Beerschot VA vs Kortrijk fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Jupiler Pro League clash, Regular Season - 19 as Beerschot VA welcome Kortrijk to Olympisch Stadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 21 December 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, Beerschot VA have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: D L W L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Beerschot VA, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Olympisch Stadion, Beerschot VA have gone 2W 4D 4L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Kortrijk — All Games: 3W 0D 7L from 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Kortrijk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kortrijk away from home this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Beerschot VA) versus 0.90 (Kortrijk). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Beerschot VA, 1 for Kortrijk and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Oct 2024, ended 0–1 with Kortrijk winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Beerschot VA in-play and half-time data (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Kortrijk in-play and half-time data (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Beerschot VA 52% versus Kortrijk 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Beerschot VA 60% | Kortrijk 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beerschot VA 1.82 xG and Kortrijk 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beerschot VA attack 0.793 / defence 1.228 | Kortrijk attack 0.829 / defence 1.389. League average goals — home 1.658 / away 1.028. Beerschot VA's attack strength of 0.793 is below the league average — the 1.82 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Kortrijk bring a strong defensive rating of 1.389 — this is suppressing Beerschot VA's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 18 Beerschot VA games / 48 Kortrijk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Beerschot VA 52% | Draw 29% | Kortrijk 18%. Fair-value odds: Beerschot VA 1.92 | Draw 3.45 | Kortrijk 5.56. Beerschot VA hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Beerschot VA as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Beerschot VA offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.87 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Beerschot VA 50% | Kortrijk 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beerschot VA vs Kortrijk | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Olympisch Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Dec 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beerschot VA 52% | Draw 29% | Kortrijk 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG Beerschot VA 1.82 / Kortrijk 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Beerschot VA attack 0.793 / def 1.228 | Kortrijk attack 0.829 / def 1.389 | league avg home 1.658 / away 1.028 • Poisson stance: Beerschot VA (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.82
Beerschot VA xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Kortrijk xG
58%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Beerschot VA vs Kortrijk kick off?
Beerschot VA vs Kortrijk kicked off at 19:45 on Saturday 21 December 2024 at Olympisch Stadion.
What was the final score in Beerschot VA vs Kortrijk?
Beerschot VA 2 - 2 Kortrijk.
Where is Beerschot VA vs Kortrijk being played?
The match is being played at Olympisch Stadion.
What competition is Beerschot VA vs Kortrijk part of?
Beerschot VA vs Kortrijk is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Beerschot VA vs Kortrijk?
Our statistical model gives Beerschot VA a 52% chance of winning, Kortrijk a 18% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Beerschot VA the favourite.
Will both teams score in Beerschot VA vs Kortrijk?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Beerschot VA and Kortrijk will score (BTTS).
Will Beerschot VA vs Kortrijk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Beerschot VA and Kortrijk?
Record (3 meetings): Beerschot VA 1W | Draws 1 | Kortrijk 1W.
What form are Beerschot VA and Kortrijk in?
Beerschot VA (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-W-L-D. Kortrijk (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Beerschot VA's attacking strength (0.79x league average) is weighed against Kortrijk's defensive record (1.39x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.82. The same calculation in reverse, Kortrijk's attack versus Beerschot VA's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Beerschot VA Win
52%
1.91
29%
3.41
18%
5.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.82
Beerschot VA xG
Total xG
2.87
1.05
Kortrijk xG
1.91
52%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
5.47
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
35%
2.85
16%
6.20
Win to Nil
18%
5.44
3%
33.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 5.9 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 10.8 | 5.7 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.9 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 6.0 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Beerschot VA vs Kortrijk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Beerschot VA and Kortrijk expected to score?
The model projects 1.82 expected goals for Beerschot VA and 1.05 for Kortrijk, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Beerschot VA vs Kortrijk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Beerschot VA come into this having played 48 games, going 19W 10D 19L for 1.40 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-L-D. The sample for Beerschot VA is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Kortrijk sit at 1.08 PPG from 48 outings (15W 7D 26L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Kortrijk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Beerschot VA on 1.40 PPG, Kortrijk on 1.08. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Beerschot VA's home form reads 9W 8D 7L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.46 PPG return.
Away from home, Kortrijk have taken 0.83 points per game from 24 outings (5W 5D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Beerschot VA come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Beerschot VA are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Kortrijk are on 0.90 scored and 1.77 conceded.
Last 48 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beerschot VA
Blended
Kortrijk
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Beerschot VA and Kortrijk in coming into this match?
Beerschot VA have gone 19W 10D 19L in their last 48 games (1.40 PPG), while Kortrijk have gone 15W 7D 26L in their last 48 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Beerschot VA at home or Kortrijk away?
Beerschot VA's home record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Beerschot VA at home: 1.46 PPG; Kortrijk away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Jupiler Pro League, Challenger Pro League all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Kortrijk have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Beerschot VA's record when hosting Kortrijk specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Beerschot VA
2
Draws
4
Kortrijk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Beerschot VA and Kortrijk?
From 8 meetings on record, Beerschot VA have won 2, Kortrijk have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Beerschot VA and Kortrijk last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Kortrijk 1-0 Beerschot VA.
Who has won more matches between Beerschot VA and Kortrijk?
Kortrijk have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Beerschot VA see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Kortrijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Beerschot VA 50%, Kortrijk 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Beerschot VA) and 54% (Kortrijk).
On the defensive side: Beerschot VA keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Beerschot VA have failed to score in 33% of games; Kortrijk in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beerschot VA home games / Kortrijk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Beerschot VA play Kortrijk?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Beerschot VA's recent matches and 38% of Kortrijk's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Beerschot VA vs Kortrijk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Beerschot VA's recent games and 54% of Kortrijk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Beerschot VA and Kortrijk tend to score early?
Beerschot VA have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Kortrijk in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Beerschot VA and Kortrijk share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beerschot VA and Kortrijk finished level at 2-2 at Olympisch Stadion, Regular Season - 19, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Beerschot VA 1.82 xG and Kortrijk 1.05 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Kortrijk outscored their 1.05 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beerschot VA attack 0.79 / defence 1.23 against Kortrijk attack 0.83 / defence 1.39, drawn from 18/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Beerschot VA 52% | Draw 29% | Kortrijk 18%, with Beerschot VA to win its most likely call at 52%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beerschot VA 60%, Kortrijk 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Beerschot VA's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Kortrijk's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Beerschot VA 1.40 PPG, Kortrijk 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Beerschot VA (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Kortrijk (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.71 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.