AS Eupen 1-2 Charleroi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AS Eupen at 43%, yet in-form Charleroi provide a compelling counter-argument — this AS Eupen vs Charleroi fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Charleroi travel to Kehrwegstadion to take on AS Eupen in Jupiler Pro League (Relegation Round - 4). The game is scheduled for Friday 26 April 2024 at 20:45 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, AS Eupen have gone 1W 1D 8L — a 0.40 PPG return. Last five: W L D L L. They are averaging 0.30 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
AS Eupen at home: 2W 2D 6L from their last 10 home games — 0.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Charleroi stand at 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L D W W. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Charleroi's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 road games (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Charleroi are 0.80 PPG ahead (1.20 vs 0.40), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
Despite the home advantage, Charleroi have the better record in our head-to-head data — 6 wins from 7 H2H matches against 1 for AS Eupen.
The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 21 Apr 2024, ended AS Eupen 0–1 Charleroi — a Charleroi win.
Charleroi have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 6 wins from 7 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
In-Play Data
AS Eupen trading profile (last 66 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
Charleroi trading profile (last 66 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 28 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AS Eupen 52% versus Charleroi 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AS Eupen 53% | Charleroi 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AS Eupen 1.16 xG and Charleroi 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AS Eupen attack 0.699 / defence 1.124 | Charleroi attack 0.644 / defence 1.052. League average goals — home 1.572 / away 1.175. AS Eupen's attack rating of 0.699 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.16. Charleroi's attack rating of 0.644 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.85. Data: built from AS Eupen's last 64 games and Charleroi's last 63.
Result probabilities: AS Eupen 43% | Draw 30% | Charleroi 27%. Fair-value odds: AS Eupen 2.34 | Draw 3.30 | Charleroi 3.71. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS Yes probability 39% | Total xG 2.01. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.01 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 61% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates AS Eupen as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Charleroi (1.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AS Eupen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.01 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 67% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (AS Eupen's last 10 home games and Charleroi's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 61%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: AS Eupen 50% (last 10 home games) | Charleroi 20% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AS Eupen vs Charleroi | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Relegation Round - 4 | Venue: Kehrwegstadion • Kick-off: Friday 26 April 2024 at 20:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AS Eupen 43% | Draw 30% | Charleroi 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% (Under 67%) | BTTS Yes 39% (No 61%) | xG AS Eupen 1.16 / Charleroi 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: AS Eupen attack 0.699 / def 1.124 | Charleroi attack 0.644 / def 1.052 | league avg home 1.572 / away 1.175 • Poisson stance: AS Eupen (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
AS Eupen xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Charleroi xG
39%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ AS Eupen vs Charleroi FAQs
What time does AS Eupen vs Charleroi kick off?
AS Eupen vs Charleroi kicked off at 20:45 UK time on Friday 26 April 2024 at Kehrwegstadion.
What was the final score in AS Eupen vs Charleroi?
AS Eupen 1 - 2 Charleroi.
Where is AS Eupen vs Charleroi being played?
The match is being played at Kehrwegstadion.
What competition is AS Eupen vs Charleroi part of?
AS Eupen vs Charleroi is a Jupiler Pro League fixture (Relegation Round - 4) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win AS Eupen vs Charleroi?
Our statistical model gives AS Eupen a 43% chance of winning, Charleroi a 27% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making AS Eupen the favourite.
Will both teams score in AS Eupen vs Charleroi?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both AS Eupen and Charleroi will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (61%).
Will AS Eupen vs Charleroi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (67%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from AS Eupen's attack rating (0.70) and Charleroi's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 1.16 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Charleroi's attack versus AS Eupen's defence, projects 0.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from AS Eupen's last 64 games and Charleroi's last 63 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.9%), 1-0 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AS Eupen Win
43%
2.34
30%
3.30
27%
3.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.5%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.4%
Draw
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
AS Eupen xG
Total xG
2.01
0.85
Charleroi xG
2.34
43%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
3.71
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.55
61%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
43%
2.34
31%
3.18
Win to Nil
18%
5.47
8%
11.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.4 | 11.4 | 4.9 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 15.5 | 13.2 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 7.6 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.5 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ AS Eupen vs Charleroi Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for AS Eupen vs Charleroi?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are AS Eupen and Charleroi expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for AS Eupen and 0.85 for Charleroi, a combined total of 2.01.
How confident is the prediction model for AS Eupen vs Charleroi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
AS Eupen come into this having played 66 games, going 14W 11D 41L for 0.80 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-L-L.
On the other side, Charleroi sit at 1.27 PPG from 66 outings (23W 15D 28L), a run that reads D-L-D-W-W across their last five.
Charleroi carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.47 PPG clear of AS Eupen — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
AS Eupen's home form reads 8W 7D 18L across their last 33 home games, a 0.94 PPG return.
Away from home, Charleroi have taken 1.06 points per game from their last 33 away games (9W 8D 16L).
The Goals Picture
AS Eupen are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 2.05 conceded per game recently; Charleroi are on 1.12 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Last 66 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AS Eupen
Current Season
Charleroi
Current Season
AS Eupen (Home) vs Charleroi (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
AS Eupen
Current Season
Charleroi
Current Season
❓ AS Eupen vs Charleroi Form FAQs
What form are AS Eupen and Charleroi in coming into this match?
AS Eupen have gone 14W 11D 41L in their last 66 games (0.80 PPG), while Charleroi have gone 23W 15D 28L in their last 66 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AS Eupen at home or Charleroi away?
Charleroi's away record (1.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AS Eupen at home: 0.94 PPG; Charleroi away: 1.06 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 8 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2021. All of them came in Jupiler Pro League. The most recent in our data was on 26 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Charleroi have won each of the latest 3 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 19 Dec 2021, when Charleroi won AS Eupen 0-4 Charleroi.
AS Eupen's record when hosting Charleroi specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
AS Eupen
0
Draws
7
Charleroi
Recent Meetings
❓ AS Eupen vs Charleroi H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between AS Eupen and Charleroi?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, AS Eupen have won 1, Charleroi have won 7, and 0 have been drawn.
When did AS Eupen and Charleroi last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 26 April 2024: AS Eupen 1-2 Charleroi.
Who has won more matches between AS Eupen and Charleroi?
Charleroi have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
AS Eupen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AS Eupen 61%, Charleroi 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (AS Eupen) and 48% (Charleroi).
On the defensive side: Charleroi in 33%; AS Eupen have failed to score in 27% of games; Charleroi in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AS Eupen home games / Charleroi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ AS Eupen vs Charleroi Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in AS Eupen and Charleroi matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 61% of AS Eupen's recent matches and 46% of Charleroi's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are AS Eupen and Charleroi matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of AS Eupen's recent games and 48% of Charleroi's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AS Eupen and Charleroi matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 76% of AS Eupen's recent matches and 61% of Charleroi's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Charleroi defy the odds to beat AS Eupen 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Charleroi beat AS Eupen 1-2 at Kehrwegstadion, Relegation Round - 4, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AS Eupen 1.16 xG and Charleroi 0.85 xG, a combined 2.01. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Charleroi outscored their 0.85 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AS Eupen attack 0.70 / defence 1.12 against Charleroi attack 0.64 / defence 1.05, drawn from 64/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AS Eupen 43% | Draw 30% | Charleroi 27%, with AS Eupen to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Charleroi win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AS Eupen 53%, Charleroi 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AS Eupen's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Charleroi's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Charleroi arrived the stronger side — 1.27 PPG against 0.80. Form held, and they took the win. Charleroi (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.91 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.