RWDM 0-1 Kortrijk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kortrijk at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this RWDM vs Kortrijk fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Edmond Machtensstadion plays host to RWDM versus Kortrijk in Jupiler Pro League, Relegation Round - 4. Kick-off: Sunday 28 April 2024 at 18:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
RWDM have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L L D W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
RWDM at Edmond Machtensstadion this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Kortrijk's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Jupiler Pro League this season, Kortrijk have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.90 PPG for RWDM against 1.00 for Kortrijk. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — RWDM lead 1W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.3 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Apr 2024, ended 4–2 with RWDM winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
RWDM half-time and goal-timing data (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 61% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Kortrijk half-time and goal-timing data (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — RWDM 63% versus Kortrijk 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (RWDM 66% | Kortrijk 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects RWDM 1.15 xG and Kortrijk 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: RWDM attack 0.685 / defence 1.449 | Kortrijk attack 0.820 / defence 1.067. League average goals — home 1.572 / away 1.175. RWDM's attack strength of 0.685 is below the league average — the 1.15 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 30 RWDM games / 64 Kortrijk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: RWDM 31% | Draw 26% | Kortrijk 43%. Fair-value odds: RWDM 3.23 | Draw 3.85 | Kortrijk 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Kortrijk at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Kortrijk if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.55 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 4.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: RWDM 50% | Kortrijk 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: RWDM vs Kortrijk | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Relegation Round - 4 | Venue: Edmond Machtensstadion • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Apr 2024, 18:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: RWDM 31% | Draw 26% | Kortrijk 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 51% | xG RWDM 1.15 / Kortrijk 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: RWDM attack 0.685 / def 1.449 | Kortrijk attack 0.820 / def 1.067 | league avg home 1.572 / away 1.175 • Poisson stance: Kortrijk (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
RWDM xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Kortrijk xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does RWDM vs Kortrijk kick off?
RWDM vs Kortrijk kicked off at 18:15 on Sunday 28 April 2024 at Edmond Machtensstadion.
What was the final score in RWDM vs Kortrijk?
RWDM 0 - 1 Kortrijk.
Where is RWDM vs Kortrijk being played?
The match is being played at Edmond Machtensstadion.
What competition is RWDM vs Kortrijk part of?
RWDM vs Kortrijk is a Relegation Round - 4 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win RWDM vs Kortrijk?
Our statistical model gives RWDM a 31% chance of winning, Kortrijk a 43% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Kortrijk the favourite.
Will both teams score in RWDM vs Kortrijk?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both RWDM and Kortrijk will score (BTTS).
Will RWDM vs Kortrijk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between RWDM and Kortrijk?
Record (3 meetings): RWDM 1W | Draws 1 | Kortrijk 1W.
What form are RWDM and Kortrijk in?
RWDM (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-D-W-W. Kortrijk (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from RWDM's attack rating (0.69) and Kortrijk's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 1.15 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Kortrijk's attack (0.82x) against RWDM's defence (1.45x) — and the away total comes out at 1.40.
These ratings are built from 30/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.5%), 0-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kortrijk Win
31%
3.23
26%
3.78
43%
2.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
RWDM xG
Total xG
2.55
1.40
Kortrijk xG
3.23
31%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
2.35
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
25%
4.04
32%
3.16
Win to Nil
8%
13.08
14%
7.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 11.0 | 7.6 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.6 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 7.2 | 5.0 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for RWDM vs Kortrijk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are RWDM and Kortrijk expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for RWDM and 1.40 for Kortrijk, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for RWDM vs Kortrijk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
RWDM's recent record stands at 28W 15D 22L from 65 games, a 1.52 PPG return, with L-L-D-W-W in the last five.
Kortrijk, meanwhile, have gone 13W 14D 38L across 65 games — 0.82 PPG, with L-W-D-L-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours RWDM by 0.70 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Kortrijk heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, RWDM have managed 16W 9D 7L from 32 games — 1.78 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Kortrijk's away record stands at 5W 6D 21L across 32 trips, a 0.66 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, RWDM come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
RWDM are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Kortrijk are on 0.95 scored and 1.89 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: RWDM have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 65 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
RWDM
Current Season
Kortrijk
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are RWDM and Kortrijk in coming into this match?
RWDM have gone 28W 15D 22L in their last 65 games (1.52 PPG), while Kortrijk have gone 13W 14D 38L in their last 65 (0.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — RWDM at home or Kortrijk away?
RWDM's home record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — RWDM at home: 1.78 PPG; Kortrijk away: 0.66 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since November 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Jupiler Pro League, Challenger Pro League all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 17 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Kortrijk go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, RWDM have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Kortrijk — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
RWDM
1
Draws
4
Kortrijk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between RWDM and Kortrijk?
From 6 meetings on record, RWDM have won 1, Kortrijk have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did RWDM and Kortrijk last play each other?
They last met on 17 April 2026, when Kortrijk 3-1 RWDM.
Who has won more matches between RWDM and Kortrijk?
Kortrijk have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
RWDM are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
Kortrijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — RWDM 56%, Kortrijk 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (RWDM) and 59% (Kortrijk). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 34% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Kortrijk in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = RWDM home games / Kortrijk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when RWDM play Kortrijk?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of RWDM's recent matches and 50% of Kortrijk's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is RWDM vs Kortrijk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of RWDM's matches and 59% of Kortrijk's.
Do RWDM and Kortrijk tend to score early?
RWDM have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Kortrijk in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Kortrijk edge out RWDM 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kortrijk beat RWDM 0-1 at Edmond Machtensstadion, Relegation Round - 4, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting RWDM 1.15 xG and Kortrijk 1.40 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. RWDM fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RWDM attack 0.69 / defence 1.45 against Kortrijk attack 0.82 / defence 1.07, drawn from 30/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it RWDM 31% | Draw 26% | Kortrijk 43%, with Kortrijk to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RWDM 66%, Kortrijk 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
RWDM's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Kortrijk's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, RWDM arrived the stronger side — 1.52 PPG against 0.82. Form was overturned, with Kortrijk winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. RWDM (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.72 scoring average — below par going forward. Kortrijk (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.06 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.