SK Beveren 1-0 Kortrijk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SK Beveren at 73% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SK Beveren vs Kortrijk encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Kortrijk make the trip to Freethiel Stadion to face SK Beveren in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 33. The match kicks off on Saturday 11 April 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
SK Beveren's overall Challenger Pro League record this term: 9W 1D 0L from 10 games (2.80 PPG). Last five: W W D W W. They are averaging 3.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
At home at Freethiel Stadion, SK Beveren have gone 9W 1D 0L this season (10 games, 2.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Freethiel Stadion.
Kortrijk have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Challenger Pro League outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: W D W L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Challenger Pro League this season, Kortrijk have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form ledger tips toward SK Beveren. A 0.90 PPG lead over Kortrijk (2.80 vs 1.90) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: SK Beveren 1W, Kortrijk 0W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 5 Oct 2025, ended 3–1 with SK Beveren winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
SK Beveren — key trading statistics (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Kortrijk — key trading statistics (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SK Beveren 49% versus Kortrijk 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SK Beveren 57% | Kortrijk 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SK Beveren 2.24 xG and Kortrijk 0.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SK Beveren attack 1.341 / defence 0.687 | Kortrijk attack 0.703 / defence 1.172. League average goals — home 1.427 / away 1.402. SK Beveren carry an above-average attack strength of 1.341 — their λ of 2.24 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. SK Beveren's defence rating of 0.687 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 59 SK Beveren games / 29 Kortrijk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SK Beveren 73% | Draw 17% | Kortrijk 10%. Fair-value odds: SK Beveren 1.37 | Draw 5.88 | Kortrijk 10.00. The model has a clear lean to SK Beveren (73%) — a 63pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, SK Beveren are the pick at 73% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 2.92 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: SK Beveren 50% | Kortrijk 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SK Beveren vs Kortrijk | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Freethiel Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Apr 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SK Beveren 73% | Draw 17% | Kortrijk 10% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 44% | xG SK Beveren 2.24 / Kortrijk 0.68 • Poisson strength factors: SK Beveren attack 1.341 / def 0.687 | Kortrijk attack 0.703 / def 1.172 | league avg home 1.427 / away 1.402 • Poisson stance: SK Beveren (73%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.24
SK Beveren xG
Expected Goals
0.68
Kortrijk xG
44%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SK Beveren vs Kortrijk kick off?
SK Beveren vs Kortrijk kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 11 April 2026 at Freethiel Stadion.
What was the final score in SK Beveren vs Kortrijk?
SK Beveren 1 - 0 Kortrijk.
Where is SK Beveren vs Kortrijk being played?
The match is being played at Freethiel Stadion.
What competition is SK Beveren vs Kortrijk part of?
SK Beveren vs Kortrijk is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win SK Beveren vs Kortrijk?
Our statistical model gives SK Beveren a 73% chance of winning, Kortrijk a 10% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making SK Beveren the favourite.
Will both teams score in SK Beveren vs Kortrijk?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both SK Beveren and Kortrijk will score (BTTS).
Will SK Beveren vs Kortrijk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between SK Beveren and Kortrijk?
Record (1 meetings): SK Beveren 1W | Draws 0 | Kortrijk 0W.
What form are SK Beveren and Kortrijk in?
SK Beveren (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 3.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-D-W-W. Kortrijk (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
SK Beveren's attacking strength (1.34x league average) is weighed against Kortrijk's defensive record (1.17x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.24. Flip it around — Kortrijk's attack (0.70x) against SK Beveren's defence (0.69x) — and the away total comes out at 0.68.
These ratings are built from 59/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.0%), 3-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SK Beveren Win
73%
1.37
17%
5.78
10%
10.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
3 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.24
SK Beveren xG
Total xG
2.92
0.68
Kortrijk xG
1.37
73%
Home win
5.78
17%
Draw
10.30
10%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
51%
1.97
11%
9.40
Win to Nil
37%
2.70
1%
96.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 1 | 12.1 | 8.2 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.6 | 9.2 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 10.1 | 6.9 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 5.7 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 5 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SK Beveren vs Kortrijk?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are SK Beveren and Kortrijk expected to score?
The model projects 2.24 expected goals for SK Beveren and 0.68 for Kortrijk, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for SK Beveren vs Kortrijk?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 73%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 61 outings, SK Beveren have picked up 2.18 PPG on a 40W 13D 8L record — W-W-D-W-W across the most recent five.
Kortrijk's form line: 27W 11D 23L from 61 games, 1.51 PPG, last five W-D-W-L-W.
Put side by side, SK Beveren are the form team by 0.67 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Kortrijk.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, SK Beveren have posted 2.30 PPG from 30 outings (21W 6D 3L).
On the road, Kortrijk have gone 9W 6D 15L from 30 away games — 1.10 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.51 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Kortrijk's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SK Beveren come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
SK Beveren are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.93 conceded per game recently; Kortrijk are on 1.46 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Defensively: SK Beveren have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 61 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SK Beveren
Current Season
Kortrijk
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SK Beveren and Kortrijk in coming into this match?
SK Beveren have gone 40W 13D 8L in their last 61 games (2.18 PPG), while Kortrijk have gone 27W 11D 23L in their last 61 (1.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SK Beveren at home or Kortrijk away?
SK Beveren's home record (2.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SK Beveren at home: 2.30 PPG; Kortrijk away: 1.10 PPG.
Have SK Beveren or Kortrijk been keeping clean sheets recently?
SK Beveren have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Kortrijk in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
2
SK Beveren
0
Draws
0
Kortrijk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SK Beveren and Kortrijk?
From 2 meetings on record, SK Beveren have won 2, Kortrijk have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did SK Beveren and Kortrijk last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when SK Beveren 1-0 Kortrijk.
Who has won more matches between SK Beveren and Kortrijk?
SK Beveren have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
SK Beveren are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Kortrijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SK Beveren 47%, Kortrijk 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (SK Beveren) and 57% (Kortrijk). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SK Beveren keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Kortrijk in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SK Beveren home games / Kortrijk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SK Beveren play Kortrijk?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of SK Beveren's recent matches and 50% of Kortrijk's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SK Beveren vs Kortrijk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of SK Beveren's matches and 57% of Kortrijk's.
Do SK Beveren and Kortrijk tend to score early?
SK Beveren have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Kortrijk in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as SK Beveren edge out Kortrijk 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SK Beveren beat Kortrijk 1-0 at Freethiel Stadion, Regular Season - 33, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SK Beveren 2.24 xG and Kortrijk 0.68 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. SK Beveren fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SK Beveren attack 1.34 / defence 0.69 against Kortrijk attack 0.70 / defence 1.17, drawn from 59/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SK Beveren 73% | Draw 17% | Kortrijk 10%, with SK Beveren to win its most likely call at 73%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SK Beveren 57%, Kortrijk 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SK Beveren's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
Kortrijk's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, SK Beveren arrived the stronger side — 2.18 PPG against 1.51. The form guide was vindicated by the result. SK Beveren (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward. Kortrijk (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.