RWDM 3-0 K. Lierse S.K. – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates K. Lierse S.K. at 40% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this RWDM vs K. Lierse S.K. encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
RWDM welcome K. Lierse S.K. to Edmond Machtensstadion in Challenger Pro League (matchday 4). Kick-off is Saturday 14 September 2024 at 20:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, RWDM have gone 4W 2D 4L — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L L D W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
RWDM's home record over their last 10 home games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
K. Lierse S.K. — last 10 games: 6W 1D 3L — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D L W W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
K. Lierse S.K.'s away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 1D 6L (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Form points away from home here. K. Lierse S.K.'s 1.90 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of RWDM's 1.40 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
RWDM hold a clear advantage across the 6 H2H matches in our data, with 6 wins compared to 0 for K. Lierse S.K. and 0 draws.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 6 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 22 Apr 2023, ended RWDM 3–0 K. Lierse S.K. — a RWDM win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both RWDM and goals — 6 wins from 6 H2H matches and an average of 3.0 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
In-Play Data
RWDM trading profile (last 33 games, 16 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
K. Lierse S.K. trading profile (last 33 games, 16 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 100% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — RWDM 61% and K. Lierse S.K. 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (RWDM 64% | K. Lierse S.K. 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects RWDM 1.22 xG and K. Lierse S.K. 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: RWDM attack 0.947 / defence 1.011 | K. Lierse S.K. attack 0.930 / defence 0.992. League average goals — home 1.293 / away 1.457. Data: built from RWDM's last 3 games and K. Lierse S.K.'s last 33. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: RWDM 33% | Draw 26% | K. Lierse S.K. 40%. Fair-value odds: RWDM 3.01 | Draw 3.79 | K. Lierse S.K. 2.47. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates K. Lierse S.K. as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on K. Lierse S.K. offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.58 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 6 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: RWDM 60% (last 10 home games) | K. Lierse S.K. 40% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (RWDM 3 games, K. Lierse S.K. 33) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: RWDM vs K. Lierse S.K. | Competition: Challenger Pro League, matchday 4 | Venue: Edmond Machtensstadion • Kick-off: Saturday 14 September 2024 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: RWDM 33% | Draw 26% | K. Lierse S.K. 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% (Under 52%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG RWDM 1.22 / K. Lierse S.K. 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: RWDM attack 0.947 / def 1.011 | K. Lierse S.K. attack 0.930 / def 0.992 | league avg home 1.293 / away 1.457 • Poisson stance: K. Lierse S.K. (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
RWDM xG
Expected Goals
1.37
K. Lierse S.K. xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ RWDM vs K. Lierse S.K. FAQs
What time does RWDM vs K. Lierse S.K. kick off?
RWDM vs K. Lierse S.K. kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Saturday 14 September 2024 at Edmond Machtensstadion.
What was the final score in RWDM vs K. Lierse S.K.?
RWDM 3 - 0 K. Lierse S.K..
Where is RWDM vs K. Lierse S.K. being played?
The match is being played at Edmond Machtensstadion.
What competition is RWDM vs K. Lierse S.K. part of?
RWDM vs K. Lierse S.K. is a Challenger Pro League fixture (matchday 4) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win RWDM vs K. Lierse S.K.?
Our statistical model gives RWDM a 33% chance of winning, K. Lierse S.K. a 40% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making K. Lierse S.K. the favourite.
Will both teams score in RWDM vs K. Lierse S.K.?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both RWDM and K. Lierse S.K. will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will RWDM vs K. Lierse S.K. have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (52%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates RWDM's attack at 0.95x the league average against K. Lierse S.K.'s defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.22 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, K. Lierse S.K.'s attack versus RWDM's defence, projects 1.37 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from RWDM's last 3 games and K. Lierse S.K.'s last 33, a sample that still includes some older results.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.2%), 0-1 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
K. Lierse S.K. Win
33%
3.01
26%
3.79
40%
2.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
RWDM xG
Total xG
2.58
1.37
K. Lierse S.K. xG
3.01
33%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
2.47
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
25%
3.94
30%
3.37
Win to Nil
8%
11.86
12%
8.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 10.3 | 7.1 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.6 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 7.6 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.1 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ RWDM vs K. Lierse S.K. Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for RWDM vs K. Lierse S.K.?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are RWDM and K. Lierse S.K. expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for RWDM and 1.37 for K. Lierse S.K., a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for RWDM vs K. Lierse S.K.?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
RWDM come into this having played 33 games, going 6W 9D 18L for 0.82 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-W-W.
On the other side, K. Lierse S.K. sit at 1.24 PPG from 33 outings (12W 5D 16L), a run that reads D-L-W-W-L across their last five.
K. Lierse S.K. carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.42 PPG clear of RWDM — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
RWDM's home form reads 3W 7D 6L across their last 16 home games, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, K. Lierse S.K. have taken 1.12 points per game from their last 16 away games (5W 3D 8L).
Goals in Recent Form
RWDM are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.94 conceded per game recently; K. Lierse S.K. are on 1.45 scored and 1.88 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: RWDM have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; K. Lierse S.K. in 67%.
Last 33 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
RWDM
Early Season
K. Lierse S.K.
Early Season
RWDM (Home) vs K. Lierse S.K. (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
RWDM
Early Season
K. Lierse S.K.
Early Season
❓ RWDM vs K. Lierse S.K. Form FAQs
What form are RWDM and K. Lierse S.K. in coming into this match?
RWDM have gone 6W 9D 18L in their last 33 games (0.82 PPG), while K. Lierse S.K. have gone 12W 5D 16L in their last 33 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — RWDM at home or K. Lierse S.K. away?
K. Lierse S.K.'s away record (1.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — RWDM at home: 1.00 PPG; K. Lierse S.K. away: 1.12 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from December 2021. All of them came in Challenger Pro League. The most recent was on 21 March 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 30 Oct 2022, when RWDM won RWDM 3-0 K. Lierse S.K..
RWDM's record when hosting K. Lierse S.K. specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
RWDM
2
Draws
1
K. Lierse S.K.
Recent Meetings
❓ RWDM vs K. Lierse S.K. H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between RWDM and K. Lierse S.K.?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, RWDM have won 7, K. Lierse S.K. have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did RWDM and K. Lierse S.K. last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 21 March 2026: RWDM 1-1 K. Lierse S.K..
Who has won more matches between RWDM and K. Lierse S.K.?
RWDM have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
RWDM are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches.
K. Lierse S.K. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — RWDM 62%, K. Lierse S.K. 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (RWDM) and 69% (K. Lierse S.K.). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: RWDM have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = RWDM home games / K. Lierse S.K. away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ RWDM vs K. Lierse S.K. Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in RWDM and K. Lierse S.K. matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of RWDM's games and 56% of K. Lierse S.K.'s, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are RWDM and K. Lierse S.K. matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of RWDM's matches and 69% of K. Lierse S.K.'s.
Do RWDM and K. Lierse S.K. matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 81% of RWDM's recent matches and 100% of K. Lierse S.K.'s — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant RWDM run riot with a 3-0 hammering of K. Lierse S.K..
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
RWDM beat K. Lierse S.K. 3-0 at Edmond Machtensstadion, Regular Season - 4, in the Challenger Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting RWDM 1.22 xG and K. Lierse S.K. 1.37 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. RWDM beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. K. Lierse S.K. landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RWDM attack 0.95 / defence 1.01 against K. Lierse S.K. attack 0.93 / defence 0.99, drawn from 3/33 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it RWDM 33% | Draw 26% | K. Lierse S.K. 40%, with K. Lierse S.K. to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual RWDM win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RWDM 64%, K. Lierse S.K. 70%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
RWDM's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
K. Lierse S.K.'s trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, K. Lierse S.K. arrived the stronger side — 1.24 PPG against 0.82. Form was overturned, with RWDM winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. RWDM (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.69 average — tighter than their form line. K. Lierse S.K. (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.31 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 2.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.