KRC Genk II 0-3 RWDM – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates KRC Genk II at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this KRC Genk II vs RWDM fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
KRC Genk II host RWDM at De Leunen in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 21 September 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Challenger Pro League games this season, KRC Genk II have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L W W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. KRC Genk II have played only a handful of Challenger Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
KRC Genk II at De Leunen this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — KRC Genk II are significantly better at De Leunen than their overall form suggests.
RWDM — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Challenger Pro League fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L D W W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. RWDM have played only a handful of Challenger Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
RWDM away from home this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (KRC Genk II) versus 1.70 (RWDM). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for KRC Genk II, 0 for RWDM and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Nov 2022, ended 2–0 with KRC Genk II winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
KRC Genk II in-play and half-time data (34 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
RWDM in-play and half-time data (34 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — KRC Genk II 74% and RWDM 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (KRC Genk II 68% | RWDM 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects KRC Genk II 1.61 xG and RWDM 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: KRC Genk II attack 1.223 / defence 0.980 | RWDM attack 0.956 / defence 0.957. League average goals — home 1.380 / away 1.447. Data: 34 KRC Genk II games / 4 RWDM games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: KRC Genk II 43% | Draw 25% | RWDM 32%. Fair-value odds: KRC Genk II 2.33 | Draw 4.00 | RWDM 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.61 / 1.36) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is KRC Genk II at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on KRC Genk II offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.97 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: KRC Genk II 70% | RWDM 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: KRC Genk II vs RWDM | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: De Leunen • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Sep 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: KRC Genk II 43% | Draw 25% | RWDM 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 60% | xG KRC Genk II 1.61 / RWDM 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: KRC Genk II attack 1.223 / def 0.980 | RWDM attack 0.956 / def 0.957 | league avg home 1.380 / away 1.447 • Poisson stance: KRC Genk II (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
KRC Genk II xG
Expected Goals
1.36
RWDM xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does KRC Genk II vs RWDM kick off?
KRC Genk II vs RWDM kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 21 September 2024 at De Leunen.
What was the final score in KRC Genk II vs RWDM?
KRC Genk II 0 - 3 RWDM.
Where is KRC Genk II vs RWDM being played?
The match is being played at De Leunen.
What competition is KRC Genk II vs RWDM part of?
KRC Genk II vs RWDM is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win KRC Genk II vs RWDM?
Our statistical model gives KRC Genk II a 43% chance of winning, RWDM a 32% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making KRC Genk II the favourite.
Will both teams score in KRC Genk II vs RWDM?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both KRC Genk II and RWDM will score (BTTS).
Will KRC Genk II vs RWDM have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between KRC Genk II and RWDM?
Record (2 meetings): KRC Genk II 1W | Draws 1 | RWDM 0W.
What form are KRC Genk II and RWDM in?
KRC Genk II (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-W-L-L. RWDM (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates KRC Genk II's attack at 1.22x the league average against RWDM's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 1.61 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, RWDM's attack versus KRC Genk II's defence, projects 1.36 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
KRC Genk II Win
43%
2.32
25%
3.97
32%
3.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
KRC Genk II xG
Total xG
2.97
1.36
RWDM xG
2.32
43%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
3.16
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.50
Clean Sheet
26%
3.88
20%
5.03
Win to Nil
11%
9.00
6%
15.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 6.9 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 11.2 | 7.6 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 9.1 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.9 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for KRC Genk II vs RWDM?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are KRC Genk II and RWDM expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for KRC Genk II and 1.36 for RWDM, a combined total of 2.97.
How confident is the prediction model for KRC Genk II vs RWDM?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 34 outings, KRC Genk II have picked up 1.26 PPG on a 12W 7D 15L record — L-W-W-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for KRC Genk II, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
RWDM's form line: 7W 9D 18L from 34 games, 0.88 PPG, last five L-D-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for RWDM, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: KRC Genk II on 1.26 PPG, RWDM on 0.88. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, KRC Genk II have posted 1.31 PPG from 16 outings (6W 3D 7L).
On the road, RWDM have gone 3W 2D 11L from 16 away games — 0.69 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, KRC Genk II come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
KRC Genk II are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; RWDM are on 1.18 scored and 1.88 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: KRC Genk II have seen both teams score in 74% of their recent games.
Last 34 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
KRC Genk II
Early Season
RWDM
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are KRC Genk II and RWDM in coming into this match?
KRC Genk II have gone 12W 7D 15L in their last 34 games (1.26 PPG), while RWDM have gone 7W 9D 18L in their last 34 (0.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — KRC Genk II at home or RWDM away?
KRC Genk II's home record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — KRC Genk II at home: 1.31 PPG; RWDM away: 0.69 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. They last met on 27 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Sep 2024, when RWDM won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
KRC Genk II's record when hosting RWDM specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
KRC Genk II
2
Draws
3
RWDM
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between KRC Genk II and RWDM?
From 6 meetings on record, KRC Genk II have won 1, RWDM have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did KRC Genk II and RWDM last play each other?
They last met on 27 January 2026, when KRC Genk II 0-2 RWDM.
Who has won more matches between KRC Genk II and RWDM?
RWDM have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
KRC Genk II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
RWDM see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — KRC Genk II at 75%, RWDM at 56%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for KRC Genk II and 75% for RWDM. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: RWDM in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = KRC Genk II home games / RWDM away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when KRC Genk II play RWDM?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of KRC Genk II's games and 56% of RWDM's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is KRC Genk II vs RWDM usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of KRC Genk II's matches and 75% of RWDM's.
Do KRC Genk II and RWDM tend to score early?
KRC Genk II have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, RWDM in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant RWDM run riot with a 0-3 hammering of KRC Genk II.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
RWDM beat KRC Genk II 0-3 at De Leunen, Regular Season - 5, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting KRC Genk II 1.61 xG and RWDM 1.36 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. KRC Genk II fell 1.6 short of their projected output. RWDM outscored their 1.36 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of KRC Genk II attack 1.22 / defence 0.98 against RWDM attack 0.96 / defence 0.96, drawn from 34/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it KRC Genk II 43% | Draw 25% | RWDM 32%, with KRC Genk II to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual RWDM win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (KRC Genk II 68%, RWDM 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
KRC Genk II's trading profile (34 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did not.
RWDM's trading profile (34 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — KRC Genk II 1.26 PPG, RWDM 0.88 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the RWDM win broke the near-deadlock. KRC Genk II (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.62 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual. RWDM (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.12 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.