Patro Eisden 0-2 Lommel United – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Patro Eisden at 46% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Patro Eisden vs Lommel United encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Patro Eisden host Lommel United at Patrostadion in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 13 September 2025 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Patro Eisden — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Challenger Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: L W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Patro Eisden have played only a handful of Challenger Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Patro Eisden at Patrostadion this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Challenger Pro League games this season, Lommel United have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L D W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Lommel United have played only a handful of Challenger Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Lommel United's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Challenger Pro League this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Patro Eisden 1.90 PPG, Lommel United 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The fixture history tells a clear story: Patro Eisden have dominated this rivalry, winning 4 of 4 past contests while Lommel United have managed just 0 wins.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Mar 2025, ended 1–0 with Patro Eisden winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Patro Eisden and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 4 meetings, combined with an average of 2.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
Patro Eisden in-play and half-time data (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Lommel United in-play and half-time data (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Patro Eisden 61% versus Lommel United 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Patro Eisden 54% | Lommel United 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Patro Eisden 1.53 xG and Lommel United 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Patro Eisden attack 1.165 / defence 0.930 | Lommel United attack 1.022 / defence 1.050. League average goals — home 1.252 / away 1.192. Data: 33 Patro Eisden games / 33 Lommel United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Patro Eisden 46% | Draw 25% | Lommel United 28%. Fair-value odds: Patro Eisden 2.17 | Draw 4.00 | Lommel United 3.57. Patro Eisden hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Patro Eisden are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Patro Eisden offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.66 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Patro Eisden 80% | Lommel United 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Patro Eisden vs Lommel United | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Patrostadion • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Sep 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Patro Eisden 46% | Draw 25% | Lommel United 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 53% | xG Patro Eisden 1.53 / Lommel United 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Patro Eisden attack 1.165 / def 0.930 | Lommel United attack 1.022 / def 1.050 | league avg home 1.252 / away 1.192 • Poisson stance: Patro Eisden (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Patro Eisden xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Lommel United xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Patro Eisden vs Lommel United kick off?
Patro Eisden vs Lommel United kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 13 September 2025 at Patrostadion.
What was the final score in Patro Eisden vs Lommel United?
Patro Eisden 0 - 2 Lommel United.
Where is Patro Eisden vs Lommel United being played?
The match is being played at Patrostadion.
What competition is Patro Eisden vs Lommel United part of?
Patro Eisden vs Lommel United is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Patro Eisden vs Lommel United?
Our statistical model gives Patro Eisden a 46% chance of winning, Lommel United a 28% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Patro Eisden the favourite.
Will both teams score in Patro Eisden vs Lommel United?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Patro Eisden and Lommel United will score (BTTS).
Will Patro Eisden vs Lommel United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Patro Eisden and Lommel United?
Record (4 meetings): Patro Eisden 4W | Draws 0 | Lommel United 0W.
What form are Patro Eisden and Lommel United in?
Patro Eisden (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-W-W. Lommel United (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Patro Eisden's attack rating (1.17) and Lommel United's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 1.53 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Lommel United's attack versus Patro Eisden's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Patro Eisden Win
46%
2.15
25%
3.94
28%
3.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Patro Eisden xG
Total xG
2.66
1.13
Lommel United xG
2.15
46%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
3.56
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
32%
3.10
22%
4.63
Win to Nil
15%
6.67
6%
16.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 7.9 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 12.1 | 6.8 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.3 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.7 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Patro Eisden vs Lommel United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Patro Eisden and Lommel United expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Patro Eisden and 1.13 for Lommel United, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Patro Eisden vs Lommel United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Patro Eisden's recent record stands at 17W 8D 8L from 33 games, a 1.79 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Patro Eisden, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Lommel United, meanwhile, have gone 10W 8D 15L across 33 games — 1.15 PPG, with L-D-W-D-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Lommel United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Patro Eisden by 0.64 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Lommel United heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Patro Eisden have managed 8W 4D 4L from 16 games — 1.75 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Lommel United's away record stands at 6W 3D 7L across 16 trips, a 1.31 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Patro Eisden come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Patro Eisden are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Lommel United are on 1.27 scored and 1.55 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Patro Eisden have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 33 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Patro Eisden
Early Season
Lommel United
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Patro Eisden and Lommel United in coming into this match?
Patro Eisden have gone 17W 8D 8L in their last 33 games (1.79 PPG), while Lommel United have gone 10W 8D 15L in their last 33 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Patro Eisden at home or Lommel United away?
Patro Eisden's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Patro Eisden at home: 1.75 PPG; Lommel United away: 1.31 PPG.
Have Patro Eisden or Lommel United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Patro Eisden have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Lommel United in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Patro Eisden and Lommel United runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Dec 2024, when Patro Eisden won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Patro Eisden's record when hosting Lommel United specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Patro Eisden
1
Draws
1
Lommel United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Patro Eisden and Lommel United?
From 6 meetings on record, Patro Eisden have won 4, Lommel United have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Patro Eisden and Lommel United last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Lommel United 1-1 Patro Eisden.
Who has won more matches between Patro Eisden and Lommel United?
Patro Eisden have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Patro Eisden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Lommel United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Patro Eisden 69%, Lommel United 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Patro Eisden) and 62% (Lommel United). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lommel United in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Patro Eisden home games / Lommel United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Patro Eisden play Lommel United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Patro Eisden's games and 50% of Lommel United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Patro Eisden vs Lommel United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Patro Eisden's matches and 62% of Lommel United's.
Do Patro Eisden and Lommel United tend to score early?
Patro Eisden have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Lommel United in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lommel United cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Patro Eisden.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lommel United beat Patro Eisden 0-2 at Patrostadion, Regular Season - 5, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Patro Eisden 1.53 xG and Lommel United 1.13 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Patro Eisden fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Lommel United outscored their 1.13 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Patro Eisden attack 1.17 / defence 0.93 against Lommel United attack 1.02 / defence 1.05, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Patro Eisden 46% | Draw 25% | Lommel United 28%, with Patro Eisden to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Lommel United win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Patro Eisden 54%, Lommel United 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Patro Eisden's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Lommel United's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Patro Eisden arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 1.15. Form was overturned, with Lommel United winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Patro Eisden (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.81 scoring average — below par going forward. Lommel United (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.75 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.