Lokeren-Temse 2-2 Patro Eisden – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Patro Eisden at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lokeren-Temse vs Patro Eisden encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Daknamstadion plays host to Lokeren-Temse versus Patro Eisden in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off: Friday 13 September 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Lokeren-Temse's overall Challenger Pro League record this term: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games (0.00 PPG). Last five: L L L. They are averaging 0.00 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Lokeren-Temse have played only a handful of Challenger Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Patro Eisden (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Challenger Pro League outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: L L D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Patro Eisden have played only a handful of Challenger Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Patro Eisden's away record: 3W 4D 3L from 10 road trips in Challenger Pro League this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On a straight form reading, Patro Eisden are the stronger side — 1.50 PPG clear of the hosts (1.50 vs 0.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Both sides have a strong clean-sheet tendency (using overall form) — Lokeren-Temse have seen both teams score in just 0% of their games, Patro Eisden in only 20%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from both squads' form records.
Trading
Lokeren-Temse half-time and goal-timing data (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 100% of games.
Patro Eisden half-time and goal-timing data (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; Over 3.5 in 67%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lokeren-Temse 0% versus Patro Eisden 100%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lokeren-Temse 33% | Patro Eisden 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lokeren-Temse 0.83 xG and Patro Eisden 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lokeren-Temse attack 0.730 / defence 1.061 | Patro Eisden attack 0.864 / defence 0.891. League average goals — home 1.283 / away 1.415. Lokeren-Temse's attack strength of 0.730 is below the league average — the 0.83 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 3 Lokeren-Temse games / 33 Patro Eisden games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Lokeren-Temse 24% | Draw 29% | Patro Eisden 47%. Fair-value odds: Lokeren-Temse 4.17 | Draw 3.45 | Patro Eisden 2.13. Patro Eisden hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Patro Eisden as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Patro Eisden if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.13 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.6 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 41%. Form rates corroborate: Lokeren-Temse 0% | Patro Eisden 20% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (3 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lokeren-Temse vs Patro Eisden | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Daknamstadion • Kick-off: Friday 13 Sep 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lokeren-Temse 24% | Draw 29% | Patro Eisden 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 41% | xG Lokeren-Temse 0.83 / Patro Eisden 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Lokeren-Temse attack 0.730 / def 1.061 | Patro Eisden attack 0.864 / def 0.891 | league avg home 1.283 / away 1.415 • Poisson stance: Patro Eisden (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.83
Lokeren-Temse xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Patro Eisden xG
41%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lokeren-Temse vs Patro Eisden kick off?
Lokeren-Temse vs Patro Eisden kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 13 September 2024 at Daknamstadion.
What was the final score in Lokeren-Temse vs Patro Eisden?
Lokeren-Temse 2 - 2 Patro Eisden.
Where is Lokeren-Temse vs Patro Eisden being played?
The match is being played at Daknamstadion.
What competition is Lokeren-Temse vs Patro Eisden part of?
Lokeren-Temse vs Patro Eisden is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Lokeren-Temse vs Patro Eisden?
Our statistical model gives Lokeren-Temse a 24% chance of winning, Patro Eisden a 47% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Patro Eisden the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lokeren-Temse vs Patro Eisden?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Lokeren-Temse and Patro Eisden will score (BTTS).
Will Lokeren-Temse vs Patro Eisden have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lokeren-Temse and Patro Eisden?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Lokeren-Temse and Patro Eisden in?
Lokeren-Temse (all comps): 0W-0D-3L in 3 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L. Patro Eisden (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Lokeren-Temse's attacking strength (0.73x league average) is weighed against Patro Eisden's defensive record (0.89x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.83. Flip it around — Patro Eisden's attack (0.86x) against Lokeren-Temse's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.30.
The sample (3/33 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-1 (13.7%), 0-0 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Patro Eisden Win
24%
4.17
29%
3.49
47%
2.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
11.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.83
Lokeren-Temse xG
Total xG
2.13
1.30
Patro Eisden xG
4.17
24%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
2.11
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.43
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
27%
3.66
43%
2.30
Win to Nil
7%
15.24
21%
4.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.9 | 15.4 | 10.0 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.8 | 8.3 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 5.4 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lokeren-Temse vs Patro Eisden?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Lokeren-Temse and Patro Eisden expected to score?
The model projects 0.83 expected goals for Lokeren-Temse and 1.30 for Patro Eisden, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Lokeren-Temse vs Patro Eisden?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 3 outings, Lokeren-Temse have picked up 0.00 PPG on a 0W 0D 3L record — L-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Lokeren-Temse, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Patro Eisden's form line: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games, 1.67 PPG, last five D-W-D. It's still early in the season for Patro Eisden, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Patro Eisden are the form team by 1.67 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Lokeren-Temse.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Lokeren-Temse are averaging 0.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Patro Eisden are on 2.00 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lokeren-Temse have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Patro Eisden in 100%.
Last 3 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lokeren-Temse
Early Season
Patro Eisden
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lokeren-Temse and Patro Eisden in coming into this match?
Lokeren-Temse have gone 0W 0D 3L in their last 3 games (0.00 PPG), while Patro Eisden have gone 1W 2D 0L in their last 3 (1.67 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 7 times since September 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 31 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Patro Eisden won 4-1 on 17 Jan 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lokeren-Temse have gone 0W 2D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Patro Eisden — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
0
Lokeren-Temse
3
Draws
4
Patro Eisden
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lokeren-Temse and Patro Eisden?
From 7 meetings on record, Lokeren-Temse have won 0, Patro Eisden have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Lokeren-Temse and Patro Eisden last play each other?
They last met on 31 October 2026, when Patro Eisden 3-1 Lokeren-Temse.
Who has won more matches between Lokeren-Temse and Patro Eisden?
Patro Eisden have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Lokeren-Temse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Patro Eisden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lokeren-Temse 0%, Patro Eisden 100% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Lokeren-Temse) and 67% (Patro Eisden).
On the defensive side: Lokeren-Temse have failed to score in 100% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lokeren-Temse home games / Patro Eisden away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lokeren-Temse play Patro Eisden?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Lokeren-Temse's recent matches and 100% of Patro Eisden's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lokeren-Temse vs Patro Eisden usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Lokeren-Temse's recent games and 67% of Patro Eisden's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lokeren-Temse and Patro Eisden tend to score early?
Lokeren-Temse have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Patro Eisden in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lokeren-Temse and Patro Eisden share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lokeren-Temse and Patro Eisden finished level at 2-2 at Daknamstadion, Regular Season - 4, in the Challenger Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lokeren-Temse 0.83 xG and Patro Eisden 1.30 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Lokeren-Temse beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lokeren-Temse attack 0.73 / defence 1.06 against Patro Eisden attack 0.86 / defence 0.89, drawn from 3/33 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Lokeren-Temse 24% | Draw 29% | Patro Eisden 47%, with Patro Eisden to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lokeren-Temse 33%, Patro Eisden 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lokeren-Temse's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 0% of their matches — today it did.
Patro Eisden's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Patro Eisden arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 0.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Lokeren-Temse scored 2 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.