Francs Borains 1-3 Patro Eisden – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Patro Eisden at 52% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Francs Borains vs Patro Eisden encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Challenger Pro League clash, Regular Season - 20 as Francs Borains welcome Patro Eisden to Stade Robert Urbain. Kick-off is set for Sunday 2 February 2025 at 12:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Francs Borains — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Challenger Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: W D D D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Francs Borains, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Francs Borains's form when playing at home: 1W 2D 7L across 10 games at Stade Robert Urbain this term (0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.50 lags behind their overall 1.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stade Robert Urbain this season.
Across all Challenger Pro League games this season, Patro Eisden have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L L W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Patro Eisden, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Challenger Pro League this season, Patro Eisden have posted 3W 5D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Francs Borains) versus 1.80 (Patro Eisden). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Francs Borains register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Patro Eisden in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Francs Borains, 2 for Patro Eisden and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 21 Sep 2024, ended 1–4 with Patro Eisden winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Francs Borains trading profile (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Patro Eisden trading profile (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Francs Borains 55% versus Patro Eisden 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Francs Borains 65% | Patro Eisden 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Francs Borains 0.96 xG and Patro Eisden 1.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Francs Borains attack 0.844 / defence 1.099 | Patro Eisden attack 1.073 / defence 0.817. League average goals — home 1.396 / away 1.356. Data: 49 Francs Borains games / 49 Patro Eisden games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Francs Borains 22% | Draw 26% | Patro Eisden 52%. Fair-value odds: Francs Borains 4.55 | Draw 3.85 | Patro Eisden 1.92. Patro Eisden hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Patro Eisden at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Patro Eisden offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.56 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Francs Borains 60% | Patro Eisden 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Francs Borains vs Patro Eisden | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Stade Robert Urbain • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Feb 2025, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Francs Borains 22% | Draw 26% | Patro Eisden 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 50% | xG Francs Borains 0.96 / Patro Eisden 1.60 • Poisson strength factors: Francs Borains attack 0.844 / def 1.099 | Patro Eisden attack 1.073 / def 0.817 | league avg home 1.396 / away 1.356 • Poisson stance: Patro Eisden (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.96
Francs Borains xG
Expected Goals
1.60
Patro Eisden xG
50%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Francs Borains vs Patro Eisden kick off?
Francs Borains vs Patro Eisden kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 2 February 2025 at Stade Robert Urbain.
What was the final score in Francs Borains vs Patro Eisden?
Francs Borains 1 - 3 Patro Eisden.
Where is Francs Borains vs Patro Eisden being played?
The match is being played at Stade Robert Urbain.
What competition is Francs Borains vs Patro Eisden part of?
Francs Borains vs Patro Eisden is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Francs Borains vs Patro Eisden?
Our statistical model gives Francs Borains a 22% chance of winning, Patro Eisden a 52% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Patro Eisden the favourite.
Will both teams score in Francs Borains vs Patro Eisden?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Francs Borains and Patro Eisden will score (BTTS).
Will Francs Borains vs Patro Eisden have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Francs Borains and Patro Eisden?
Record (3 meetings): Francs Borains 0W | Draws 1 | Patro Eisden 2W.
What form are Francs Borains and Patro Eisden in?
Francs Borains (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-D-D-W. Patro Eisden (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Francs Borains's attacking strength (0.84x league average) is weighed against Patro Eisden's defensive record (0.82x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.96. The same calculation in reverse, Patro Eisden's attack versus Francs Borains's defence, projects 1.60 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.8%), 0-2 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Patro Eisden Win
22%
4.44
26%
3.92
52%
1.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
0 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.96
Francs Borains xG
Total xG
2.56
1.60
Patro Eisden xG
4.44
22%
Home win
3.92
26%
Draw
1.92
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.02
50%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
20%
4.95
38%
2.62
Win to Nil
5%
21.99
20%
5.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 12.3 | 9.9 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 11.9 | 9.5 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 5.7 | 4.6 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Francs Borains vs Patro Eisden?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Francs Borains and Patro Eisden expected to score?
The model projects 0.96 expected goals for Francs Borains and 1.60 for Patro Eisden, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Francs Borains vs Patro Eisden?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Francs Borains's recent record stands at 15W 9D 25L from 49 games, a 1.10 PPG return, with W-D-D-D-W in the last five. The sample for Francs Borains is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Patro Eisden, meanwhile, have gone 22W 16D 11L across 49 games — 1.67 PPG, with W-L-L-W-D in their last five. The sample for Patro Eisden is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Patro Eisden by 0.57 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Francs Borains heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Francs Borains have managed 6W 5D 13L from 24 games — 0.96 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Patro Eisden's away record stands at 9W 11D 4L across 24 trips, a 1.58 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Patro Eisden come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Francs Borains are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Patro Eisden are on 1.61 scored and 1.06 conceded.
Defensively: Patro Eisden in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 49 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Francs Borains
Blended
Patro Eisden
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Francs Borains and Patro Eisden in coming into this match?
Francs Borains have gone 15W 9D 25L in their last 49 games (1.10 PPG), while Patro Eisden have gone 22W 16D 11L in their last 49 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Francs Borains at home or Patro Eisden away?
Patro Eisden's away record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Francs Borains at home: 0.96 PPG; Patro Eisden away: 1.58 PPG.
Have Francs Borains or Patro Eisden been keeping clean sheets recently?
Francs Borains have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, Patro Eisden in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Francs Borains and Patro Eisden runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. They last met on 17 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Apr 2026, when Patro Eisden won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Francs Borains's record when hosting Patro Eisden specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Francs Borains
1
Draws
4
Patro Eisden
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Francs Borains and Patro Eisden?
From 6 meetings on record, Francs Borains have won 1, Patro Eisden have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Francs Borains and Patro Eisden last play each other?
They last met on 17 April 2026, when Patro Eisden 4-0 Francs Borains.
Who has won more matches between Francs Borains and Patro Eisden?
Patro Eisden have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Francs Borains are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Patro Eisden see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Francs Borains 54%, Patro Eisden 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Francs Borains) and 38% (Patro Eisden).
On the defensive side: Patro Eisden in 54%; Francs Borains have failed to score in 33% of games; Patro Eisden in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Francs Borains home games / Patro Eisden away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Francs Borains play Patro Eisden?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Francs Borains's recent matches and 38% of Patro Eisden's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Francs Borains vs Patro Eisden usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Francs Borains's recent games and 38% of Patro Eisden's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Francs Borains and Patro Eisden tend to score early?
Francs Borains have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Patro Eisden in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Patro Eisden cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Francs Borains.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Patro Eisden beat Francs Borains 1-3 at Stade Robert Urbain, Regular Season - 20, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Francs Borains 0.96 xG and Patro Eisden 1.60 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Patro Eisden outscored their 1.60 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Francs Borains attack 0.84 / defence 1.10 against Patro Eisden attack 1.07 / defence 0.82, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Francs Borains 22% | Draw 26% | Patro Eisden 52%, with Patro Eisden to win its most likely call at 52%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Francs Borains 65%, Patro Eisden 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Francs Borains's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Patro Eisden's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Patro Eisden arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.10. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Francs Borains (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Patro Eisden (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.