WSG Wattens 0-2 Austria Vienna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Austria Vienna at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this WSG Wattens vs Austria Vienna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
WSG Wattens host Austria Vienna at Tivoli Stadion Tirol in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 22 October 2023 at 13:30 UTC.
Form Guide
WSG Wattens — All Games: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 0.50 points per game. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for WSG Wattens, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Tivoli Stadion Tirol, WSG Wattens have gone 1W 4D 5L this season (10 games, 0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Austria Vienna stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Austria Vienna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Austria Vienna's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: WSG Wattens 0.50 PPG, Austria Vienna 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, WSG Wattens have won 0, Austria Vienna 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.5 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 6 Nov 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
WSG Wattens in-play and half-time data (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
Austria Vienna in-play and half-time data (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — WSG Wattens 60% and Austria Vienna 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (WSG Wattens 57% | Austria Vienna 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects WSG Wattens 1.54 xG and Austria Vienna 1.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: WSG Wattens attack 1.062 / defence 1.387 | Austria Vienna attack 0.817 / defence 1.200. League average goals — home 1.212 / away 1.390. Data: 32 WSG Wattens games / 32 Austria Vienna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: WSG Wattens 35% | Draw 29% | Austria Vienna 36%. Fair-value odds: WSG Wattens 2.86 | Draw 3.45 | Austria Vienna 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.12. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.12 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.54 / 1.58) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Austria Vienna as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Austria Vienna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.12 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: WSG Wattens 70% | Austria Vienna 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: WSG Wattens vs Austria Vienna | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Tivoli Stadion Tirol • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Oct 2023, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: WSG Wattens 35% | Draw 29% | Austria Vienna 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 65% | xG WSG Wattens 1.54 / Austria Vienna 1.58 • Poisson strength factors: WSG Wattens attack 1.062 / def 1.387 | Austria Vienna attack 0.817 / def 1.200 | league avg home 1.212 / away 1.390 • Poisson stance: Austria Vienna (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
WSG Wattens xG
Expected Goals
1.58
Austria Vienna xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does WSG Wattens vs Austria Vienna kick off?
WSG Wattens vs Austria Vienna kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 22 October 2023 at Tivoli Stadion Tirol.
What was the final score in WSG Wattens vs Austria Vienna?
WSG Wattens 0 - 2 Austria Vienna.
Where is WSG Wattens vs Austria Vienna being played?
The match is being played at Tivoli Stadion Tirol.
What competition is WSG Wattens vs Austria Vienna part of?
WSG Wattens vs Austria Vienna is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win WSG Wattens vs Austria Vienna?
Our statistical model gives WSG Wattens a 35% chance of winning, Austria Vienna a 36% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Austria Vienna the favourite.
Will both teams score in WSG Wattens vs Austria Vienna?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both WSG Wattens and Austria Vienna will score (BTTS).
Will WSG Wattens vs Austria Vienna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between WSG Wattens and Austria Vienna?
Record (2 meetings): WSG Wattens 0W | Draws 1 | Austria Vienna 1W.
What form are WSG Wattens and Austria Vienna in?
WSG Wattens (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Austria Vienna (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates WSG Wattens's attack at 1.06x the league average against Austria Vienna's defence at 1.20x — combine the two and it projects 1.54 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Austria Vienna's attack versus WSG Wattens's defence, projects 1.58 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 32/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Austria Vienna Win
35%
2.86
29%
3.48
36%
2.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
WSG Wattens xG
Total xG
3.12
1.58
Austria Vienna xG
2.86
35%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
2.75
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.85
Clean Sheet
21%
4.84
21%
4.69
Win to Nil
7%
13.82
8%
12.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 7.0 | 5.5 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 10.7 | 8.5 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 8.3 | 6.5 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 4.3 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for WSG Wattens vs Austria Vienna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are WSG Wattens and Austria Vienna expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for WSG Wattens and 1.58 for Austria Vienna, a combined total of 3.12.
How confident is the prediction model for WSG Wattens vs Austria Vienna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
WSG Wattens's recent record stands at 11W 10D 21L from 42 games, a 1.02 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for WSG Wattens is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Austria Vienna, meanwhile, have gone 14W 13D 15L across 42 games — 1.31 PPG, with D-L-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for Austria Vienna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: WSG Wattens on 1.02 PPG, Austria Vienna on 1.31. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, WSG Wattens have managed 4W 7D 9L from 20 games — 0.95 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Austria Vienna's away record stands at 5W 7D 8L across 20 trips, a 1.10 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
WSG Wattens are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.79 conceded per game recently; Austria Vienna are on 1.67 scored and 1.48 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Austria Vienna in 62%.
Last 42 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
WSG Wattens
Blended
Austria Vienna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are WSG Wattens and Austria Vienna in coming into this match?
WSG Wattens have gone 11W 10D 21L in their last 42 games (1.02 PPG), while Austria Vienna have gone 14W 13D 15L in their last 42 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — WSG Wattens at home or Austria Vienna away?
Austria Vienna's away record (1.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — WSG Wattens at home: 0.95 PPG; Austria Vienna away: 1.10 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 29 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Apr 2024, when Austria Vienna won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
WSG Wattens's record when hosting Austria Vienna specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
WSG Wattens
2
Draws
7
Austria Vienna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between WSG Wattens and Austria Vienna?
From 10 meetings on record, WSG Wattens have won 1, Austria Vienna have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did WSG Wattens and Austria Vienna last play each other?
They last met on 29 November 2025, when Austria Vienna 0-0 WSG Wattens.
Who has won more matches between WSG Wattens and Austria Vienna?
Austria Vienna have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
WSG Wattens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Austria Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — WSG Wattens at 65%, Austria Vienna at 70%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 55% for WSG Wattens and 65% for Austria Vienna. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = WSG Wattens home games / Austria Vienna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when WSG Wattens play Austria Vienna?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of WSG Wattens's games and 70% of Austria Vienna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is WSG Wattens vs Austria Vienna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of WSG Wattens's matches and 65% of Austria Vienna's.
Do WSG Wattens and Austria Vienna tend to score early?
WSG Wattens have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Austria Vienna in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Austria Vienna cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over WSG Wattens.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Austria Vienna beat WSG Wattens 0-2 at Tivoli Stadion Tirol, Regular Season - 11, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting WSG Wattens 1.54 xG and Austria Vienna 1.58 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. WSG Wattens fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of WSG Wattens attack 1.06 / defence 1.39 against Austria Vienna attack 0.82 / defence 1.20, drawn from 32/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it WSG Wattens 35% | Draw 29% | Austria Vienna 36%, with Austria Vienna to win its most likely call at 36%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (WSG Wattens 57%, Austria Vienna 71%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
WSG Wattens's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Austria Vienna's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — WSG Wattens 1.02 PPG, Austria Vienna 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Austria Vienna win broke the near-deadlock. WSG Wattens (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward. Austria Vienna (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.70 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.