Sturm Graz 2-1 TSV Hartberg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 34% as Sturm Graz take on TSV Hartberg.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees TSV Hartberg travel to Merkur Arena to take on Sturm Graz. The game is scheduled for Saturday 21 October 2023, 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sturm Graz stand at 7W 3D 0L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W D D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Sturm Graz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sturm Graz have posted 7W 2D 1L at Merkur Arena — 2.30 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, TSV Hartberg have recorded 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W D D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for TSV Hartberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
TSV Hartberg's form when playing away from home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Sturm Graz carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.40 vs 1.60. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
In-Play Profile
Sturm Graz in-play tendencies (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
TSV Hartberg in-play tendencies (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sturm Graz 57% versus TSV Hartberg 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sturm Graz 52% | TSV Hartberg 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sturm Graz 1.18 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sturm Graz attack 1.144 / defence 0.743 | TSV Hartberg attack 1.054 / defence 0.824. League average goals — home 1.251 / away 1.425. Sturm Graz's defence rating of 0.743 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 32 Sturm Graz games / 32 TSV Hartberg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sturm Graz 34% | Draw 34% | TSV Hartberg 31%. Fair-value odds: Sturm Graz 2.94 | Draw 2.94 | TSV Hartberg 3.23. The draw (34%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 34% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 31% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.29 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. Form rates are neutral: Sturm Graz 50% | TSV Hartberg 50%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sturm Graz vs TSV Hartberg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Merkur Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Oct 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sturm Graz 34% | Draw 34% | TSV Hartberg 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 50% | xG Sturm Graz 1.18 / TSV Hartberg 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Sturm Graz attack 1.144 / def 0.743 | TSV Hartberg attack 1.054 / def 0.824 | league avg home 1.251 / away 1.425 • Poisson stance: Draw (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Sturm Graz xG
Expected Goals
1.12
TSV Hartberg xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sturm Graz vs TSV Hartberg kick off?
Sturm Graz vs TSV Hartberg kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 21 October 2023 at Merkur Arena.
What was the final score in Sturm Graz vs TSV Hartberg?
Sturm Graz 2 - 1 TSV Hartberg.
Where is Sturm Graz vs TSV Hartberg being played?
The match is being played at Merkur Arena.
What competition is Sturm Graz vs TSV Hartberg part of?
Sturm Graz vs TSV Hartberg is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Sturm Graz vs TSV Hartberg?
Our statistical model gives Sturm Graz a 34% chance of winning, TSV Hartberg a 31% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Sturm Graz vs TSV Hartberg?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Sturm Graz and TSV Hartberg will score (BTTS).
Will Sturm Graz vs TSV Hartberg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sturm Graz and TSV Hartberg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sturm Graz and TSV Hartberg in?
Sturm Graz (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-D-D-W-W. TSV Hartberg (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Sturm Graz's attack at 1.14x the league average against TSV Hartberg's defence at 0.82x — combine the two and it projects 1.18 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, TSV Hartberg's attack versus Sturm Graz's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 32/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.8%), 1-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
34%
2.91
34%
2.90
31%
3.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Sturm Graz xG
Total xG
2.29
1.12
TSV Hartberg xG
2.91
34%
Home win
2.90
34%
Draw
3.21
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.02
50%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
33%
3.05
31%
3.25
Win to Nil
11%
8.89
10%
10.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 11.2 | 6.3 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 13.3 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 7.8 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sturm Graz vs TSV Hartberg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Sturm Graz and TSV Hartberg expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Sturm Graz and 1.12 for TSV Hartberg, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Sturm Graz vs TSV Hartberg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sturm Graz's recent record stands at 27W 9D 6L from 42 games, a 2.14 PPG return, with W-D-D-W-W in the last five. The sample for Sturm Graz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
TSV Hartberg, meanwhile, have gone 13W 10D 19L across 42 games — 1.17 PPG, with W-W-D-D-W in their last five. The sample for TSV Hartberg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sturm Graz by 0.97 — a real, if not enormous, edge over TSV Hartberg heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Sturm Graz have managed 14W 3D 3L from 20 games — 2.25 PPG in front of their own supporters.
TSV Hartberg's away record stands at 6W 5D 9L across 20 trips, a 1.15 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sturm Graz come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sturm Graz are averaging 1.79 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game recently; TSV Hartberg are on 1.29 scored and 1.67 conceded.
Defensively: Sturm Graz have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sturm Graz
Blended
TSV Hartberg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sturm Graz and TSV Hartberg in coming into this match?
Sturm Graz have gone 27W 9D 6L in their last 42 games (2.14 PPG), while TSV Hartberg have gone 13W 10D 19L in their last 42 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sturm Graz at home or TSV Hartberg away?
Sturm Graz's home record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sturm Graz at home: 2.25 PPG; TSV Hartberg away: 1.15 PPG.
Have Sturm Graz or TSV Hartberg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sturm Graz have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, TSV Hartberg in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 10 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Sturm Graz's record when hosting TSV Hartberg specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Sturm Graz
3
Draws
0
TSV Hartberg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sturm Graz and TSV Hartberg?
From 10 meetings on record, Sturm Graz have won 7, TSV Hartberg have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sturm Graz and TSV Hartberg last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when TSV Hartberg 2-4 Sturm Graz.
Who has won more matches between Sturm Graz and TSV Hartberg?
Sturm Graz have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sturm Graz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
TSV Hartberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sturm Graz 50%, TSV Hartberg 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Sturm Graz) and 55% (TSV Hartberg). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sturm Graz keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; TSV Hartberg in 35%; TSV Hartberg in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sturm Graz home games / TSV Hartberg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sturm Graz play TSV Hartberg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Sturm Graz's recent matches and 45% of TSV Hartberg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sturm Graz vs TSV Hartberg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of Sturm Graz's matches and 55% of TSV Hartberg's.
Do Sturm Graz and TSV Hartberg tend to score early?
Sturm Graz have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, TSV Hartberg in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sturm Graz edge out TSV Hartberg 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sturm Graz beat TSV Hartberg 2-1 at Merkur Arena, Regular Season - 11, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sturm Graz 1.18 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.12 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Sturm Graz beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sturm Graz attack 1.14 / defence 0.74 against TSV Hartberg attack 1.05 / defence 0.82, drawn from 32/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sturm Graz 34% | Draw 34% | TSV Hartberg 31%, with Sturm Graz to win its most likely call at 34%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sturm Graz 52%, TSV Hartberg 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sturm Graz's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
TSV Hartberg's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Sturm Graz arrived the stronger side — 2.14 PPG against 1.17. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.