Wolfsberger AC 3-0 Sturm Graz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Sturm Graz (40%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Wolfsberger AC face Sturm Graz.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Wolfsberger AC and Sturm Graz meet at Lavanttal Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 18. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 15 February 2025 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Wolfsberger AC have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: L W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Wolfsberger AC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Wolfsberger AC's home record at Lavanttal Arena: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Sturm Graz's overall Bundesliga record this term: 7W 3D 0L from 10 games (2.40 PPG). Last five: W W D W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sturm Graz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Sturm Graz have posted 5W 4D 1L from 10 away outings — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.90 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Sturm Graz arrive in superior form — a 0.80 PPG advantage (2.40 vs 1.60) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Wolfsberger AC register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Sturm Graz in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Wolfsberger AC, 3 for Sturm Graz and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.4 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Sep 2024, ended 3–0 with Wolfsberger AC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.4 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Wolfsberger AC half-time and goal-timing data (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Sturm Graz half-time and goal-timing data (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wolfsberger AC 53% versus Sturm Graz 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wolfsberger AC 53% | Sturm Graz 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wolfsberger AC 1.28 xG and Sturm Graz 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wolfsberger AC attack 1.037 / defence 1.017 | Sturm Graz attack 1.235 / defence 0.870. League average goals — home 1.414 / away 1.188. Sturm Graz have an above-average attack strength of 1.235 — the away xG of 1.49 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 39 Wolfsberger AC games / 39 Sturm Graz games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wolfsberger AC 30% | Draw 30% | Sturm Graz 40%. Fair-value odds: Wolfsberger AC 3.33 | Draw 3.33 | Sturm Graz 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sturm Graz at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sturm Graz if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.77 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Wolfsberger AC 70% | Sturm Graz 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wolfsberger AC vs Sturm Graz | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Lavanttal Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Feb 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wolfsberger AC 30% | Draw 30% | Sturm Graz 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 58% | xG Wolfsberger AC 1.28 / Sturm Graz 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Wolfsberger AC attack 1.037 / def 1.017 | Sturm Graz attack 1.235 / def 0.870 | league avg home 1.414 / away 1.188 • Poisson stance: Sturm Graz (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Wolfsberger AC xG
Expected Goals
1.49
Sturm Graz xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wolfsberger AC vs Sturm Graz kick off?
Wolfsberger AC vs Sturm Graz kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 15 February 2025 at Lavanttal Arena.
What was the final score in Wolfsberger AC vs Sturm Graz?
Wolfsberger AC 3 - 0 Sturm Graz.
Where is Wolfsberger AC vs Sturm Graz being played?
The match is being played at Lavanttal Arena.
What competition is Wolfsberger AC vs Sturm Graz part of?
Wolfsberger AC vs Sturm Graz is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Wolfsberger AC vs Sturm Graz?
Our statistical model gives Wolfsberger AC a 30% chance of winning, Sturm Graz a 40% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Sturm Graz the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wolfsberger AC vs Sturm Graz?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Wolfsberger AC and Sturm Graz will score (BTTS).
Will Wolfsberger AC vs Sturm Graz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wolfsberger AC and Sturm Graz?
Record (5 meetings): Wolfsberger AC 1W | Draws 1 | Sturm Graz 3W.
What form are Wolfsberger AC and Sturm Graz in?
Wolfsberger AC (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-W-W-W. Sturm Graz (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 3.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Wolfsberger AC's attack at 1.04x the league average against Sturm Graz's defence at 0.87x — combine the two and it projects 1.28 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sturm Graz's attack (1.24x) against Wolfsberger AC's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.49.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 0-0 (7.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sturm Graz Win
30%
3.34
30%
3.30
40%
2.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Wolfsberger AC xG
Total xG
2.77
1.49
Sturm Graz xG
3.34
30%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
2.52
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.40
Clean Sheet
23%
4.44
28%
3.58
Win to Nil
7%
14.82
11%
9.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 9.4 | 7.0 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 12.0 | 8.9 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.6 | 5.7 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.2 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wolfsberger AC vs Sturm Graz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Wolfsberger AC and Sturm Graz expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Wolfsberger AC and 1.49 for Sturm Graz, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Wolfsberger AC vs Sturm Graz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 49 outings, Wolfsberger AC have picked up 1.47 PPG on a 20W 12D 17L record — L-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Wolfsberger AC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sturm Graz's form line: 30W 14D 5L from 49 games, 2.12 PPG, last five W-W-D-W-D. The sample for Sturm Graz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Sturm Graz are the form team by 0.65 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Wolfsberger AC.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Wolfsberger AC have posted 1.33 PPG from 24 outings (9W 5D 10L).
On the road, Sturm Graz have gone 14W 8D 2L from 24 away games — 2.08 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sturm Graz come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Wolfsberger AC are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Sturm Graz are on 2.00 scored and 0.84 conceded.
Defensively: Sturm Graz in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 49 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wolfsberger AC
Blended
Sturm Graz
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wolfsberger AC and Sturm Graz in coming into this match?
Wolfsberger AC have gone 20W 12D 17L in their last 49 games (1.47 PPG), while Sturm Graz have gone 30W 14D 5L in their last 49 (2.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wolfsberger AC at home or Sturm Graz away?
Sturm Graz's away record (2.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wolfsberger AC at home: 1.33 PPG; Sturm Graz away: 2.08 PPG.
Have Wolfsberger AC or Sturm Graz been keeping clean sheets recently?
Wolfsberger AC have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Sturm Graz in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since July 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 1 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sturm Graz won 4-0 on 3 Mar 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Wolfsberger AC have gone 1W 3D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Sturm Graz — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Wolfsberger AC
4
Draws
3
Sturm Graz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wolfsberger AC and Sturm Graz?
From 10 meetings on record, Wolfsberger AC have won 3, Sturm Graz have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Wolfsberger AC and Sturm Graz last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2026, when Wolfsberger AC 2-2 Sturm Graz.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Wolfsberger AC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Sturm Graz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wolfsberger AC 58%, Sturm Graz 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Wolfsberger AC) and 62% (Sturm Graz). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Wolfsberger AC have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wolfsberger AC home games / Sturm Graz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wolfsberger AC play Sturm Graz?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Wolfsberger AC's games and 67% of Sturm Graz's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Wolfsberger AC vs Sturm Graz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Wolfsberger AC's matches and 62% of Sturm Graz's.
Do Wolfsberger AC and Sturm Graz tend to score early?
Wolfsberger AC have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Sturm Graz in 92% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Wolfsberger AC run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Sturm Graz.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wolfsberger AC beat Sturm Graz 3-0 at Lavanttal Arena, Regular Season - 18, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wolfsberger AC 1.28 xG and Sturm Graz 1.49 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Wolfsberger AC beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Sturm Graz landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wolfsberger AC attack 1.04 / defence 1.02 against Sturm Graz attack 1.24 / defence 0.87, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wolfsberger AC 30% | Draw 30% | Sturm Graz 40%, with Sturm Graz to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Wolfsberger AC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wolfsberger AC 53%, Sturm Graz 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wolfsberger AC's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Sturm Graz's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Sturm Graz arrived the stronger side — 2.12 PPG against 1.47. Form was overturned, with Wolfsberger AC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Wolfsberger AC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.46 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line. Sturm Graz (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.92 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.92 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.