Sturm Graz 2-2 Austria Vienna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sturm Graz at 55% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Sturm Graz face Austria Vienna.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Austria Vienna make the trip to Merkur Arena to face Sturm Graz in Bundesliga (matchday 17). The match kicks off on Friday 7 February 2025 at 19:30 UK time.
Form
Sturm Graz (all games): 7W 3D 0L across their last 10 — 2.40 PPG. Last five: D W W D W. They are averaging 3.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Sturm Graz's home record over their last 10 home games: 7W 2D 1L (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.90 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Austria Vienna have collected 2.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 8W 1D 1L. Last five: W W W W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Austria Vienna's away record over their last 10 away games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 2.40 PPG for Sturm Graz against 2.50 for Austria Vienna. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 2 H2H matches in our data, Austria Vienna edge it 1 wins to 0, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 25 Sep 2024, ended Sturm Graz 2–2 Austria Vienna — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Sturm Graz — key trading statistics (last 48 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 60%; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Austria Vienna — key trading statistics (last 48 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sturm Graz 52% versus Austria Vienna 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sturm Graz 52% | Austria Vienna 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sturm Graz 1.94 xG and Austria Vienna 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sturm Graz attack 1.505 / defence 0.976 | Austria Vienna attack 1.005 / defence 0.836. League average goals — home 1.540 / away 1.196. Sturm Graz carry an above-average attack rating of 1.505 — their 1.94 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from Sturm Graz's last 38 games and Austria Vienna's last 38.
Result probabilities: Sturm Graz 55% | Draw 23% | Austria Vienna 22%. Fair-value odds: Sturm Graz 1.82 | Draw 4.38 | Austria Vienna 4.47. The model has a clear lean to Sturm Graz (55%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 3.11. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.11 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (1.94 / 1.17) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sturm Graz are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.11 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Sturm Graz's last 10 home games and Austria Vienna's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Sturm Graz 50% (last 10 home games) | Austria Vienna 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sturm Graz vs Austria Vienna | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 17 | Venue: Merkur Arena • Kick-off: Friday 7 February 2025 at 19:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sturm Graz 55% | Draw 23% | Austria Vienna 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% (Under 40%) | BTTS Yes 60% (No 40%) | xG Sturm Graz 1.94 / Austria Vienna 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Sturm Graz attack 1.505 / def 0.976 | Austria Vienna attack 1.005 / def 0.836 | league avg home 1.540 / away 1.196 • Poisson stance: Sturm Graz (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.94
Sturm Graz xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Austria Vienna xG
60%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Sturm Graz vs Austria Vienna FAQs
What time does Sturm Graz vs Austria Vienna kick off?
Sturm Graz vs Austria Vienna kicked off at 19:30 UK time on Friday 7 February 2025 at Merkur Arena.
What was the final score in Sturm Graz vs Austria Vienna?
Sturm Graz 2 - 2 Austria Vienna.
Where is Sturm Graz vs Austria Vienna being played?
The match is being played at Merkur Arena.
What competition is Sturm Graz vs Austria Vienna part of?
Sturm Graz vs Austria Vienna is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 17) (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Sturm Graz vs Austria Vienna?
Our statistical model gives Sturm Graz a 55% chance of winning, Austria Vienna a 22% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Sturm Graz the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sturm Graz vs Austria Vienna?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Sturm Graz and Austria Vienna will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Sturm Graz vs Austria Vienna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Sturm Graz's attack at 1.50x the league average against Austria Vienna's defence at 0.84x — combine the two and it projects 1.94 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Austria Vienna's attack (1.00x) against Sturm Graz's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.17.
These ratings are built from Sturm Graz's last 38 games and Austria Vienna's last 38 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sturm Graz Win
55%
1.82
23%
4.38
22%
4.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.94
Sturm Graz xG
Total xG
3.11
1.17
Austria Vienna xG
1.82
55%
Home win
4.38
23%
Draw
4.47
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.47
Clean Sheet
31%
3.23
14%
6.94
Win to Nil
17%
5.89
3%
31.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 5.2 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 10.1 | 5.9 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 6.3 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Sturm Graz vs Austria Vienna Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Sturm Graz vs Austria Vienna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Sturm Graz and Austria Vienna expected to score?
The model projects 1.94 expected goals for Sturm Graz and 1.17 for Austria Vienna, a combined total of 3.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Sturm Graz vs Austria Vienna?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sturm Graz's recent record stands at 30W 13D 5L from 48 games, a 2.15 PPG return, with D-W-W-D-W in the last five.
Austria Vienna, meanwhile, have gone 24W 13D 11L across 48 games — 1.77 PPG, with W-W-W-W-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.15 PPG for Sturm Graz against 1.77 for Austria Vienna. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Sturm Graz have managed 16W 5D 3L from their last 24 home games — 2.21 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Austria Vienna's away record stands at 10W 4D 10L across their last 24 away games, a 1.42 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sturm Graz come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sturm Graz are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 0.81 conceded per game recently; Austria Vienna are on 1.33 scored and 0.94 conceded. Sturm Graz's scoring rate against Austria Vienna's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Sturm Graz have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games; Austria Vienna in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sturm Graz
Blended
Austria Vienna
Blended
Sturm Graz (Home) vs Austria Vienna (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Sturm Graz
Blended
Austria Vienna
Blended
❓ Sturm Graz vs Austria Vienna Form FAQs
What form are Sturm Graz and Austria Vienna in coming into this match?
Sturm Graz have gone 30W 13D 5L in their last 48 games (2.15 PPG), while Austria Vienna have gone 24W 13D 11L in their last 48 (1.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sturm Graz at home or Austria Vienna away?
Sturm Graz's home record (2.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sturm Graz at home: 2.21 PPG; Austria Vienna away: 1.42 PPG.
Have Sturm Graz or Austria Vienna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sturm Graz have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Austria Vienna in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2023 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was as recently as 10 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sturm Graz won Austria Vienna 2-5 Sturm Graz on 15 Mar 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sturm Graz have gone 0W 2D 3L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Austria Vienna — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Sturm Graz
3
Draws
5
Austria Vienna
Recent Meetings
❓ Sturm Graz vs Austria Vienna H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Sturm Graz and Austria Vienna?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Sturm Graz have won 2, Austria Vienna have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sturm Graz and Austria Vienna last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 10 October 2026: Austria Vienna 0-2 Sturm Graz.
Who has won more matches between Sturm Graz and Austria Vienna?
Austria Vienna have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sturm Graz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 60% of those situations.
Austria Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sturm Graz 38%, Austria Vienna 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Sturm Graz) and 38% (Austria Vienna).
On the defensive side: Sturm Graz keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Austria Vienna in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sturm Graz home games / Austria Vienna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Sturm Graz vs Austria Vienna Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Sturm Graz and Austria Vienna matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Sturm Graz's recent matches and 46% of Austria Vienna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Sturm Graz and Austria Vienna matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Sturm Graz's recent games and 38% of Austria Vienna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sturm Graz and Austria Vienna matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Sturm Graz's recent matches and 79% of Austria Vienna's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sturm Graz and Austria Vienna share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sturm Graz and Austria Vienna finished level at 2-2 at Merkur Arena, Regular Season - 17, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sturm Graz 1.94 xG and Austria Vienna 1.17 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Austria Vienna outscored their 1.17 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sturm Graz attack 1.50 / defence 0.98 against Austria Vienna attack 1.00 / defence 0.84, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sturm Graz 55% | Draw 23% | Austria Vienna 22%, with Sturm Graz to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sturm Graz 52%, Austria Vienna 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sturm Graz's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Austria Vienna's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sturm Graz 2.15 PPG, Austria Vienna 1.77 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Sturm Graz (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Austria Vienna (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.