Wolfsberger AC 2-1 Lask Linz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lask Linz at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Wolfsberger AC vs Lask Linz fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 16 sees Lask Linz travel to Lavanttal Arena to take on Wolfsberger AC. The game is scheduled for Saturday 7 December 2024, 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Wolfsberger AC have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: D L L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Wolfsberger AC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Lavanttal Arena, Wolfsberger AC have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lask Linz stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L D W W L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.30. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Lask Linz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lask Linz away from home this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Wolfsberger AC 1.40 PPG, Lask Linz 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 4 wins for Wolfsberger AC, 2 for Lask Linz and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 3.7 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 1 Sep 2024, ended 5–1 with Wolfsberger AC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Wolfsberger AC trading profile (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Lask Linz trading profile (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wolfsberger AC 51% versus Lask Linz 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wolfsberger AC 51% | Lask Linz 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wolfsberger AC 1.27 xG and Lask Linz 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wolfsberger AC attack 0.962 / defence 1.087 | Lask Linz attack 1.226 / defence 0.866. League average goals — home 1.530 / away 1.153. Lask Linz have an above-average attack strength of 1.226 — the away xG of 1.54 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 37 Wolfsberger AC games / 37 Lask Linz games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wolfsberger AC 31% | Draw 26% | Lask Linz 43%. Fair-value odds: Wolfsberger AC 3.23 | Draw 3.85 | Lask Linz 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Lask Linz as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lask Linz offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.81 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Wolfsberger AC 70% | Lask Linz 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wolfsberger AC vs Lask Linz | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Lavanttal Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Dec 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wolfsberger AC 31% | Draw 26% | Lask Linz 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG Wolfsberger AC 1.27 / Lask Linz 1.54 • Poisson strength factors: Wolfsberger AC attack 0.962 / def 1.087 | Lask Linz attack 1.226 / def 0.866 | league avg home 1.530 / away 1.153 • Poisson stance: Lask Linz (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Wolfsberger AC xG
Expected Goals
1.54
Lask Linz xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wolfsberger AC vs Lask Linz kick off?
Wolfsberger AC vs Lask Linz kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 7 December 2024 at Lavanttal Arena.
What was the final score in Wolfsberger AC vs Lask Linz?
Wolfsberger AC 2 - 1 Lask Linz.
Where is Wolfsberger AC vs Lask Linz being played?
The match is being played at Lavanttal Arena.
What competition is Wolfsberger AC vs Lask Linz part of?
Wolfsberger AC vs Lask Linz is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Wolfsberger AC vs Lask Linz?
Our statistical model gives Wolfsberger AC a 31% chance of winning, Lask Linz a 43% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Lask Linz the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wolfsberger AC vs Lask Linz?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Wolfsberger AC and Lask Linz will score (BTTS).
Will Wolfsberger AC vs Lask Linz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wolfsberger AC and Lask Linz?
Record (6 meetings): Wolfsberger AC 4W | Draws 0 | Lask Linz 2W.
What form are Wolfsberger AC and Lask Linz in?
Wolfsberger AC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-L-W-W. Lask Linz (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Wolfsberger AC's attack rating (0.96) and Lask Linz's defence rating (0.87), the model arrives at 1.27 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Lask Linz's attack versus Wolfsberger AC's defence, projects 1.54 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 0-1 (7.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lask Linz Win
31%
3.21
26%
3.88
43%
2.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Wolfsberger AC xG
Total xG
2.81
1.54
Lask Linz xG
3.21
31%
Home win
3.88
26%
Draw
2.32
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
22%
4.65
28%
3.58
Win to Nil
7%
14.92
12%
8.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 9.2 | 7.1 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 11.8 | 9.0 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 7.5 | 5.8 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.2 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wolfsberger AC vs Lask Linz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Wolfsberger AC and Lask Linz expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Wolfsberger AC and 1.54 for Lask Linz, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Wolfsberger AC vs Lask Linz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Wolfsberger AC's recent record stands at 18W 12D 17L from 47 games, a 1.40 PPG return, with D-L-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for Wolfsberger AC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lask Linz, meanwhile, have gone 20W 12D 15L across 47 games — 1.53 PPG, with L-D-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for Lask Linz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Wolfsberger AC on 1.40 PPG, Lask Linz on 1.53. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Wolfsberger AC have managed 8W 5D 10L from 23 games — 1.26 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Lask Linz's away record stands at 9W 7D 7L across 23 trips, a 1.48 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Wolfsberger AC are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Lask Linz are on 1.40 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Last 47 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wolfsberger AC
Blended
Lask Linz
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wolfsberger AC and Lask Linz in coming into this match?
Wolfsberger AC have gone 18W 12D 17L in their last 47 games (1.40 PPG), while Lask Linz have gone 20W 12D 15L in their last 47 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wolfsberger AC at home or Lask Linz away?
Lask Linz's away record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wolfsberger AC at home: 1.26 PPG; Lask Linz away: 1.48 PPG.
Have Wolfsberger AC or Lask Linz been keeping clean sheets recently?
Wolfsberger AC have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Lask Linz in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Wolfsberger AC and Lask Linz runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to March 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 1 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Lask Linz have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Aug 2022, when Lask Linz won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Wolfsberger AC's record when hosting Lask Linz specifically: 4W 0D 2L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Wolfsberger AC
0
Draws
4
Lask Linz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wolfsberger AC and Lask Linz?
From 10 meetings on record, Wolfsberger AC have won 6, Lask Linz have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Wolfsberger AC and Lask Linz last play each other?
They last met on 1 September 2026, when Wolfsberger AC 1-3 Lask Linz.
Who has won more matches between Wolfsberger AC and Lask Linz?
Wolfsberger AC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Wolfsberger AC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Lask Linz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wolfsberger AC 56%, Lask Linz 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Wolfsberger AC) and 48% (Lask Linz).
On the defensive side: Wolfsberger AC have failed to score in 30% of games; Lask Linz in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wolfsberger AC home games / Lask Linz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wolfsberger AC play Lask Linz?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Wolfsberger AC's games and 56% of Lask Linz's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Wolfsberger AC vs Lask Linz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Wolfsberger AC's recent games and 48% of Lask Linz's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Wolfsberger AC and Lask Linz tend to score early?
Wolfsberger AC have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Lask Linz in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Wolfsberger AC defy the odds to beat Lask Linz 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wolfsberger AC beat Lask Linz 2-1 at Lavanttal Arena, Regular Season - 16, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wolfsberger AC 1.27 xG and Lask Linz 1.54 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wolfsberger AC attack 0.96 / defence 1.09 against Lask Linz attack 1.23 / defence 0.87, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wolfsberger AC 31% | Draw 26% | Lask Linz 43%, with Lask Linz to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Wolfsberger AC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wolfsberger AC 51%, Lask Linz 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wolfsberger AC's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Lask Linz's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Wolfsberger AC 1.40 PPG, Lask Linz 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Wolfsberger AC win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.