Lask Linz 0-0 FC BW Linz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lask Linz at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lask Linz vs FC BW Linz fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Lask Linz and FC BW Linz meet at Raiffeisen Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 17. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 9 February 2025 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Lask Linz's overall Bundesliga record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: D W W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Lask Linz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Raiffeisen Arena, Lask Linz have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.10 lags behind their overall 1.70 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Raiffeisen Arena this season.
FC BW Linz have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: L W L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FC BW Linz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC BW Linz away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.70 for Lask Linz, 1.30 for FC BW Linz — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Lask Linz have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, FC BW Linz in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Lask Linz, 2 for FC BW Linz and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.7 per game from 3 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Sep 2024, ended 0–1 with FC BW Linz winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Lask Linz goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
FC BW Linz goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lask Linz 54% versus FC BW Linz 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lask Linz 50% | FC BW Linz 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lask Linz 1.59 xG and FC BW Linz 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lask Linz attack 1.038 / defence 1.220 | FC BW Linz attack 0.958 / defence 1.051. League average goals — home 1.455 / away 1.224. Data: 38 Lask Linz games / 38 FC BW Linz games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lask Linz 40% | Draw 27% | FC BW Linz 33%. Fair-value odds: Lask Linz 2.50 | Draw 3.70 | FC BW Linz 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.59 / 1.43) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Lask Linz as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lask Linz if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.02 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: Lask Linz 70% | FC BW Linz 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lask Linz vs FC BW Linz | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Raiffeisen Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Feb 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lask Linz 40% | Draw 27% | FC BW Linz 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 62% | xG Lask Linz 1.59 / FC BW Linz 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Lask Linz attack 1.038 / def 1.220 | FC BW Linz attack 0.958 / def 1.051 | league avg home 1.455 / away 1.224 • Poisson stance: Lask Linz (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Lask Linz xG
Expected Goals
1.43
FC BW Linz xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lask Linz vs FC BW Linz kick off?
Lask Linz vs FC BW Linz kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 9 February 2025 at Raiffeisen Arena.
What was the final score in Lask Linz vs FC BW Linz?
Lask Linz 0 - 0 FC BW Linz.
Where is Lask Linz vs FC BW Linz being played?
The match is being played at Raiffeisen Arena.
What competition is Lask Linz vs FC BW Linz part of?
Lask Linz vs FC BW Linz is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Lask Linz vs FC BW Linz?
Our statistical model gives Lask Linz a 40% chance of winning, FC BW Linz a 33% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Lask Linz the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lask Linz vs FC BW Linz?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Lask Linz and FC BW Linz will score (BTTS).
Will Lask Linz vs FC BW Linz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lask Linz and FC BW Linz?
Record (3 meetings): Lask Linz 1W | Draws 0 | FC BW Linz 2W.
What form are Lask Linz and FC BW Linz in?
Lask Linz (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-W-L-L. FC BW Linz (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Lask Linz's attack at 1.04x the league average against FC BW Linz's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.59 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — FC BW Linz's attack (0.96x) against Lask Linz's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 1.43.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Lask Linz Win
40%
2.51
27%
3.69
33%
3.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 2
7.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Lask Linz xG
Total xG
3.02
1.43
FC BW Linz xG
2.51
40%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
3.03
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.63
Clean Sheet
24%
4.18
20%
4.89
Win to Nil
10%
10.50
7%
14.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 7.0 | 5.0 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 11.1 | 7.9 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.8 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.7 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lask Linz vs FC BW Linz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Lask Linz and FC BW Linz expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Lask Linz and 1.43 for FC BW Linz, a combined total of 3.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Lask Linz vs FC BW Linz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 48 outings, Lask Linz have picked up 1.50 PPG on a 20W 12D 16L record — D-W-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Lask Linz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC BW Linz's form line: 14W 13D 21L from 48 games, 1.15 PPG, last five L-W-L-W-W. The sample for FC BW Linz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.50 PPG for Lask Linz against 1.15 for FC BW Linz. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Lask Linz have posted 1.58 PPG from 24 outings (11W 5D 8L).
On the road, FC BW Linz have gone 5W 5D 14L from 24 away games — 0.83 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lask Linz come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Lask Linz are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; FC BW Linz are on 1.10 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Last 48 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lask Linz
Blended
FC BW Linz
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lask Linz and FC BW Linz in coming into this match?
Lask Linz have gone 20W 12D 16L in their last 48 games (1.50 PPG), while FC BW Linz have gone 14W 13D 21L in their last 48 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lask Linz at home or FC BW Linz away?
Lask Linz's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lask Linz at home: 1.58 PPG; FC BW Linz away: 0.83 PPG.
Have Lask Linz or FC BW Linz been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lask Linz have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, FC BW Linz in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 1 November 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Lask Linz have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lask Linz have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against FC BW Linz — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Lask Linz
1
Draws
2
FC BW Linz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lask Linz and FC BW Linz?
From 6 meetings on record, Lask Linz have won 3, FC BW Linz have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Lask Linz and FC BW Linz last play each other?
They last met on 1 November 2025, when FC BW Linz 0-1 Lask Linz.
Who has won more matches between Lask Linz and FC BW Linz?
Lask Linz have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Lask Linz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
FC BW Linz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lask Linz 50%, FC BW Linz 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Lask Linz) and 50% (FC BW Linz).
On the defensive side: Lask Linz keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; FC BW Linz in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lask Linz home games / FC BW Linz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lask Linz play FC BW Linz?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Lask Linz's recent matches and 54% of FC BW Linz's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lask Linz vs FC BW Linz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Lask Linz's recent games and 50% of FC BW Linz's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lask Linz and FC BW Linz tend to score early?
Lask Linz have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, FC BW Linz in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Lask Linz's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Raiffeisen Arena, Regular Season - 17, as Lask Linz and FC BW Linz drew 0-0 in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lask Linz 1.59 xG and FC BW Linz 1.43 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Lask Linz fell 1.6 short of their projected output. FC BW Linz landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lask Linz attack 1.04 / defence 1.22 against FC BW Linz attack 0.96 / defence 1.05, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lask Linz 40% | Draw 27% | FC BW Linz 33%, with Lask Linz to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lask Linz 50%, FC BW Linz 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lask Linz's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
FC BW Linz's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lask Linz 1.50 PPG, FC BW Linz 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Lask Linz (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.62 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. FC BW Linz (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.79 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.