Wolfsberger AC vs Grazer AK – Pre-Match Analysis

Poisson rates Wolfsberger AC at 58% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Wolfsberger AC vs Grazer AK encounter.

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Analysis & Preview

A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 20 sees Grazer AK travel to Lavanttal-Arena to take on Wolfsberger AC. The game is scheduled for Saturday 13 February 2027, 16:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Bundesliga games this season, Wolfsberger AC have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W W W W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Wolfsberger AC haven't played a Bundesliga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Wolfsberger AC's home record at Lavanttal-Arena: 3W 6D 1L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Lavanttal-Arena.

Grazer AK — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W D W L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Grazer AK have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

Grazer AK away from home this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Wolfsberger AC 1.50 PPG, Grazer AK 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

H2H Record

Wolfsberger AC hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 4 wins from 6 previous encounters compared to 1 for Grazer AK, with 1 draws in between.

The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 25 Apr 2026, ended 1–0 with Wolfsberger AC winning.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Wolfsberger AC and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 6 meetings, combined with an average of 4.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.

In-Play Profile

Wolfsberger AC in-play tendencies (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).

Grazer AK in-play tendencies (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wolfsberger AC 58% versus Grazer AK 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wolfsberger AC 58% | Grazer AK 61%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Wolfsberger AC 1.78 xG and Grazer AK 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wolfsberger AC attack 1.007 / defence 1.043 | Grazer AK attack 0.824 / defence 1.172. League average goals — home 1.509 / away 1.030. Data: 22 Wolfsberger AC games / 23 Grazer AK games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Wolfsberger AC 58% | Draw 25% | Grazer AK 17%. Fair-value odds: Wolfsberger AC 1.72 | Draw 4.00 | Grazer AK 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Wolfsberger AC (58%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Wolfsberger AC are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 2.67 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 4.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. Form rates corroborate: Wolfsberger AC 50% | Grazer AK 40% BTTS from recent games.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (22 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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