TSV Hartberg 2-2 Wolfsberger AC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Wolfsberger AC at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this TSV Hartberg vs Wolfsberger AC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 7 as TSV Hartberg welcome Wolfsberger AC to Stadion Hartberg. Kick-off is set for Saturday 20 September 2025 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, TSV Hartberg have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: W L W L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. TSV Hartberg have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
TSV Hartberg's home record at Stadion Hartberg: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.10 lags behind their overall 1.60 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadion Hartberg this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Wolfsberger AC stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W L D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Wolfsberger AC have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Wolfsberger AC's form when playing away from home: 4W 5D 1L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — TSV Hartberg at 1.60 PPG versus Wolfsberger AC's 1.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 8 previous meetings, TSV Hartberg have won 4, Wolfsberger AC 3, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 8 meetings have averaged 3.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 1 Mar 2025, ended 0–3 with Wolfsberger AC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
TSV Hartberg in-play and half-time data (38 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
Wolfsberger AC in-play and half-time data (38 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — TSV Hartberg 53% versus Wolfsberger AC 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (TSV Hartberg 45% | Wolfsberger AC 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects TSV Hartberg 0.90 xG and Wolfsberger AC 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: TSV Hartberg attack 0.810 / defence 1.030 | Wolfsberger AC attack 1.079 / defence 0.807. League average goals — home 1.382 / away 1.275. Data: 28 TSV Hartberg games / 28 Wolfsberger AC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 24% | Draw 27% | Wolfsberger AC 49%. Fair-value odds: TSV Hartberg 4.17 | Draw 3.70 | Wolfsberger AC 2.04. Wolfsberger AC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Wolfsberger AC at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Wolfsberger AC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.32 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates are neutral: TSV Hartberg 60% | Wolfsberger AC 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: TSV Hartberg vs Wolfsberger AC | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Stadion Hartberg • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Sep 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 24% | Draw 27% | Wolfsberger AC 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 45% | xG TSV Hartberg 0.90 / Wolfsberger AC 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: TSV Hartberg attack 0.810 / def 1.030 | Wolfsberger AC attack 1.079 / def 0.807 | league avg home 1.382 / away 1.275 • Poisson stance: Wolfsberger AC (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.90
TSV Hartberg xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Wolfsberger AC xG
45%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does TSV Hartberg vs Wolfsberger AC kick off?
TSV Hartberg vs Wolfsberger AC kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 20 September 2025 at Stadion Hartberg.
What was the final score in TSV Hartberg vs Wolfsberger AC?
TSV Hartberg 2 - 2 Wolfsberger AC.
Where is TSV Hartberg vs Wolfsberger AC being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Hartberg.
What competition is TSV Hartberg vs Wolfsberger AC part of?
TSV Hartberg vs Wolfsberger AC is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win TSV Hartberg vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our statistical model gives TSV Hartberg a 24% chance of winning, Wolfsberger AC a 49% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Wolfsberger AC the favourite.
Will both teams score in TSV Hartberg vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both TSV Hartberg and Wolfsberger AC will score (BTTS).
Will TSV Hartberg vs Wolfsberger AC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between TSV Hartberg and Wolfsberger AC?
Record (8 meetings): TSV Hartberg 4W | Draws 1 | Wolfsberger AC 3W.
What form are TSV Hartberg and Wolfsberger AC in?
TSV Hartberg (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-L-W. Wolfsberger AC (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates TSV Hartberg's attack at 0.81x the league average against Wolfsberger AC's defence at 0.81x — combine the two and it projects 0.90 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Wolfsberger AC's attack versus TSV Hartberg's defence, projects 1.42 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 28/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (12.3%), 0-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wolfsberger AC Win
24%
4.17
27%
3.70
49%
2.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.90
TSV Hartberg xG
Total xG
2.32
1.42
Wolfsberger AC xG
4.17
24%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
2.04
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
24%
4.12
40%
2.47
Win to Nil
6%
17.19
20%
5.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 13.9 | 9.9 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 12.6 | 8.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 5.7 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for TSV Hartberg vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are TSV Hartberg and Wolfsberger AC expected to score?
The model projects 0.90 expected goals for TSV Hartberg and 1.42 for Wolfsberger AC, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for TSV Hartberg vs Wolfsberger AC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
TSV Hartberg's recent record stands at 14W 11D 13L from 38 games, a 1.39 PPG return, with W-L-W-L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for TSV Hartberg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Wolfsberger AC, meanwhile, have gone 19W 8D 11L across 38 games — 1.71 PPG, with W-W-L-D-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Wolfsberger AC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: TSV Hartberg on 1.39 PPG, Wolfsberger AC on 1.71. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, TSV Hartberg have managed 6W 5D 6L from 17 games — 1.35 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Wolfsberger AC's away record stands at 9W 5D 3L across 17 trips, a 1.88 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wolfsberger AC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
TSV Hartberg are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Wolfsberger AC are on 1.84 scored and 1.16 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Wolfsberger AC in 61%.
Last 38 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
TSV Hartberg
Early Season
Wolfsberger AC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are TSV Hartberg and Wolfsberger AC in coming into this match?
TSV Hartberg have gone 14W 11D 13L in their last 38 games (1.39 PPG), while Wolfsberger AC have gone 19W 8D 11L in their last 38 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — TSV Hartberg at home or Wolfsberger AC away?
Wolfsberger AC's away record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — TSV Hartberg at home: 1.35 PPG; Wolfsberger AC away: 1.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between TSV Hartberg and Wolfsberger AC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 8 November 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Sep 2023, when TSV Hartberg won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
TSV Hartberg's record when hosting Wolfsberger AC specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
TSV Hartberg
2
Draws
3
Wolfsberger AC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between TSV Hartberg and Wolfsberger AC?
From 10 meetings on record, TSV Hartberg have won 5, Wolfsberger AC have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did TSV Hartberg and Wolfsberger AC last play each other?
They last met on 8 November 2025, when Wolfsberger AC 1-2 TSV Hartberg.
Who has won more matches between TSV Hartberg and Wolfsberger AC?
TSV Hartberg have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
TSV Hartberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Wolfsberger AC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — TSV Hartberg 65%, Wolfsberger AC 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (TSV Hartberg) and 47% (Wolfsberger AC).
On the defensive side: Wolfsberger AC in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = TSV Hartberg home games / Wolfsberger AC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when TSV Hartberg play Wolfsberger AC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of TSV Hartberg's games and 53% of Wolfsberger AC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is TSV Hartberg vs Wolfsberger AC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of TSV Hartberg's recent games and 47% of Wolfsberger AC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do TSV Hartberg and Wolfsberger AC tend to score early?
TSV Hartberg have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Wolfsberger AC in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
TSV Hartberg and Wolfsberger AC share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Hartberg, Regular Season - 7, as TSV Hartberg and Wolfsberger AC drew 2-2 in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting TSV Hartberg 0.90 xG and Wolfsberger AC 1.42 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. TSV Hartberg beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of TSV Hartberg attack 0.81 / defence 1.03 against Wolfsberger AC attack 1.08 / defence 0.81, drawn from 28/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it TSV Hartberg 24% | Draw 27% | Wolfsberger AC 49%, with Wolfsberger AC to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (TSV Hartberg 45%, Wolfsberger AC 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
TSV Hartberg's trading profile (38 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Wolfsberger AC's trading profile (38 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — TSV Hartberg 1.39 PPG, Wolfsberger AC 1.71 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Wolfsberger AC (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.