Sturm Graz 5-2 Grazer AK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sturm Graz at 73% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sturm Graz vs Grazer AK encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 10 sees Grazer AK travel to Merkur Arena to take on Sturm Graz. The game is scheduled for Saturday 19 October 2024, 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Sturm Graz — All Games: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 2.20 points per game. Last five: W L D W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Sturm Graz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sturm Graz's home record at Merkur Arena: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Merkur Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Grazer AK stand at 0W 4D 5L from 9 Bundesliga matches — 0.44 PPG. Last five: D D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.22 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 9 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 78% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Grazer AK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Grazer AK have posted 0W 2D 3L from 5 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Sturm Graz are in the better shape of the two on current Bundesliga data — 1.76 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 0.44). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
In-Play Profile
Sturm Graz in-play tendencies (9 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games).
Grazer AK in-play tendencies (9 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sturm Graz 44% and Grazer AK 78% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sturm Graz 67% | Grazer AK 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sturm Graz 2.78 xG and Grazer AK 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sturm Graz attack 1.335 / defence 0.971 | Grazer AK attack 0.918 / defence 1.287. League average goals — home 1.618 / away 1.177. Sturm Graz carry an above-average attack strength of 1.335 — their λ of 2.78 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Grazer AK bring a strong defensive rating of 1.287 — this is suppressing Sturm Graz's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 31 Sturm Graz games / 9 Grazer AK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sturm Graz 73% | Draw 15% | Grazer AK 12%. Fair-value odds: Sturm Graz 1.37 | Draw 6.67 | Grazer AK 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Sturm Graz (73%) — a 61pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 74% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.83. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 74% — a total xG of 3.83 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (2.78 / 1.05) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sturm Graz at 73% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 3.83 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 74% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: Sturm Graz 30% | Grazer AK 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sturm Graz vs Grazer AK | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Merkur Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Oct 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sturm Graz 73% | Draw 15% | Grazer AK 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 74% | BTTS 61% | xG Sturm Graz 2.78 / Grazer AK 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Sturm Graz attack 1.335 / def 0.971 | Grazer AK attack 0.918 / def 1.287 | league avg home 1.618 / away 1.177 • Poisson stance: Sturm Graz (73%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
2.78
Sturm Graz xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Grazer AK xG
61%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
74%
Over 2.5
53%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sturm Graz vs Grazer AK kick off?
Sturm Graz vs Grazer AK kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 19 October 2024 at Merkur Arena.
What was the final score in Sturm Graz vs Grazer AK?
Sturm Graz 5 - 2 Grazer AK.
Where is Sturm Graz vs Grazer AK being played?
The match is being played at Merkur Arena.
What competition is Sturm Graz vs Grazer AK part of?
Sturm Graz vs Grazer AK is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Sturm Graz vs Grazer AK?
Our statistical model gives Sturm Graz a 73% chance of winning, Grazer AK a 12% chance, and a 15% chance of a draw — making Sturm Graz the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sturm Graz vs Grazer AK?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Sturm Graz and Grazer AK will score (BTTS).
Will Sturm Graz vs Grazer AK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 74%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sturm Graz and Grazer AK?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sturm Graz and Grazer AK in?
Sturm Graz (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-D-W-W. Grazer AK (all comps): 0W-4D-5L in 9 | 0.44 PPG | GF 1.22 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-D-L-L-L.
What do the betting odds say about Sturm Graz vs Grazer AK?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Sturm Graz's attack at 1.33x the league average against Grazer AK's defence at 1.29x — combine the two and it projects 2.78 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Grazer AK's attack versus Sturm Graz's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 31/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 8.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (8.4%), 3-1 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sturm Graz Win
73%
1.36
15%
6.69
12%
8.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
8.4%
Home win
3 – 1
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.78
Sturm Graz xG
Total xG
3.83
1.05
Grazer AK xG
1.36
73%
Home win
6.69
15%
Draw
8.61
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
74%
Over 2.5
1.35
26%
Under 2.5
3.85
53%
Over 3.5
1.89
47%
Under 3.5
2.13
34%
Over 4.5
2.94
66%
Under 4.5
1.52
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.56
Clean Sheet
35%
2.85
6%
16.10
Win to Nil
26%
3.89
1%
138.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 6.0 | 6.3 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 8.8 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.8 | 8.2 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 5.4 | 5.7 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sturm Graz vs Grazer AK?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.8%.
How many goals are Sturm Graz and Grazer AK expected to score?
The model projects 2.78 expected goals for Sturm Graz and 1.05 for Grazer AK, a combined total of 3.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Sturm Graz vs Grazer AK?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 73%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sturm Graz come into this having played 9 games, going 6W 1D 2L for 2.11 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-W-W. The sample for Sturm Graz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Grazer AK sit at 0.44 PPG from 9 outings (0W 4D 5L), a run that reads D-D-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Grazer AK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sturm Graz carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.67 PPG clear of Grazer AK — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Sturm Graz's home form reads 4W 0D 1L across 5 games on their own ground, a 2.40 PPG return.
Away from home, Grazer AK have taken 0.40 points per game from 5 outings (0W 2D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sturm Graz come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sturm Graz are averaging 2.11 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Grazer AK are on 1.22 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Grazer AK in 78%.
Last 9 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sturm Graz
Blended
Grazer AK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sturm Graz and Grazer AK in coming into this match?
Sturm Graz have gone 6W 1D 2L in their last 9 games (2.11 PPG), while Grazer AK have gone 0W 4D 5L in their last 9 (0.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sturm Graz at home or Grazer AK away?
Sturm Graz's home record (2.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sturm Graz at home: 2.40 PPG; Grazer AK away: 0.40 PPG.
Have Sturm Graz or Grazer AK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sturm Graz have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Grazer AK in 11%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 7 December 2025, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Sturm Graz have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Oct 2024, when Sturm Graz won 5-2 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sturm Graz's record when hosting Grazer AK specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
4
Sturm Graz
0
Draws
0
Grazer AK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sturm Graz and Grazer AK?
From 4 meetings on record, Sturm Graz have won 4, Grazer AK have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sturm Graz and Grazer AK last play each other?
They last met on 7 December 2025, when Sturm Graz 2-1 Grazer AK.
Who has won more matches between Sturm Graz and Grazer AK?
Sturm Graz have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sturm Graz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Grazer AK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sturm Graz 40%, Grazer AK 80% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for Sturm Graz and 60% for Grazer AK. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sturm Graz keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sturm Graz home games / Grazer AK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sturm Graz play Grazer AK?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 40% of Sturm Graz's games and 80% of Grazer AK's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sturm Graz vs Grazer AK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of Sturm Graz's matches and 60% of Grazer AK's.
Do Sturm Graz and Grazer AK tend to score early?
Sturm Graz have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Grazer AK in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Sturm Graz run riot with a 5-2 hammering of Grazer AK.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sturm Graz beat Grazer AK 5-2 at Merkur Arena, Regular Season - 10, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sturm Graz 2.78 xG and Grazer AK 1.05 xG, a combined 3.83. The scoreboard read 5-2 for 7 actual goals. Sturm Graz beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Grazer AK outscored their 1.05 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sturm Graz attack 1.33 / defence 0.97 against Grazer AK attack 0.92 / defence 1.29, drawn from 31/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sturm Graz 73% | Draw 15% | Grazer AK 12%, with Sturm Graz to win its most likely call at 73%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 74%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 53% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sturm Graz 67%, Grazer AK 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sturm Graz's trading profile (9 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Grazer AK's trading profile (9 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 78% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Sturm Graz arrived the stronger side — 2.11 PPG against 0.44. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Sturm Graz (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.60 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Grazer AK (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 2.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.