SCR Altach 0-2 Sturm Graz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sturm Graz at 53% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SCR Altach vs Sturm Graz encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 9 as SCR Altach welcome Sturm Graz to Cashpoint-Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 5 October 2025 at 13:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, SCR Altach stand at 3W 5D 2L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L W D L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 0.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for SCR Altach, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Cashpoint-Arena, SCR Altach have gone 3W 6D 1L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Sturm Graz have recorded 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Sturm Graz have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Sturm Graz have gone 7W 1D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Sturm Graz are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 1.40), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The previous 7 encounters between these sides heavily favour Sturm Graz, who boast 5 victories compared to 0 for SCR Altach.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Nov 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
It is worth noting that Sturm Graz have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 7 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Profile
SCR Altach in-play tendencies (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 26% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Sturm Graz in-play tendencies (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SCR Altach 44% versus Sturm Graz 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SCR Altach 33% | Sturm Graz 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SCR Altach 0.72 xG and Sturm Graz 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SCR Altach attack 0.809 / defence 0.833 | Sturm Graz attack 1.358 / defence 0.678. League average goals — home 1.312 / away 1.221. Sturm Graz's defence strength of 0.678 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Sturm Graz have an above-average attack strength of 1.358 — the away xG of 1.38 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 30 SCR Altach games / 29 Sturm Graz games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SCR Altach 19% | Draw 28% | Sturm Graz 53%. Fair-value odds: SCR Altach 5.26 | Draw 3.57 | Sturm Graz 1.89. Sturm Graz hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sturm Graz are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sturm Graz offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.10 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 38%. Form rates are neutral: SCR Altach 50% | Sturm Graz 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SCR Altach vs Sturm Graz | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Cashpoint-Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Oct 2025, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SCR Altach 19% | Draw 28% | Sturm Graz 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 38% | xG SCR Altach 0.72 / Sturm Graz 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: SCR Altach attack 0.809 / def 0.833 | Sturm Graz attack 1.358 / def 0.678 | league avg home 1.312 / away 1.221 • Poisson stance: Sturm Graz (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.72
SCR Altach xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Sturm Graz xG
38%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SCR Altach vs Sturm Graz kick off?
SCR Altach vs Sturm Graz kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 5 October 2025 at Cashpoint-Arena.
What was the final score in SCR Altach vs Sturm Graz?
SCR Altach 0 - 2 Sturm Graz.
Where is SCR Altach vs Sturm Graz being played?
The match is being played at Cashpoint-Arena.
What competition is SCR Altach vs Sturm Graz part of?
SCR Altach vs Sturm Graz is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win SCR Altach vs Sturm Graz?
Our statistical model gives SCR Altach a 19% chance of winning, Sturm Graz a 53% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Sturm Graz the favourite.
Will both teams score in SCR Altach vs Sturm Graz?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both SCR Altach and Sturm Graz will score (BTTS).
Will SCR Altach vs Sturm Graz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between SCR Altach and Sturm Graz?
Record (7 meetings): SCR Altach 0W | Draws 2 | Sturm Graz 5W.
What form are SCR Altach and Sturm Graz in?
SCR Altach (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 0.40 | L5 D-L-W-D-L. Sturm Graz (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates SCR Altach's attack at 0.81x the league average against Sturm Graz's defence at 0.68x — combine the two and it projects 0.72 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sturm Graz's attack versus SCR Altach's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.8%), 1-1 (13.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sturm Graz Win
19%
5.13
28%
3.60
53%
1.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.9%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
12.2%
Draw
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.72
SCR Altach xG
Total xG
2.10
1.38
Sturm Graz xG
5.13
19%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
1.90
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.60
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
25%
3.98
49%
2.05
Win to Nil
5%
20.43
26%
3.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.2 | 16.9 | 11.7 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.2 | 8.4 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 4.4 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SCR Altach vs Sturm Graz?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are SCR Altach and Sturm Graz expected to score?
The model projects 0.72 expected goals for SCR Altach and 1.38 for Sturm Graz, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for SCR Altach vs Sturm Graz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
SCR Altach come into this having played 39 games, going 8W 14D 17L for 0.97 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-D-L. The sample for SCR Altach is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sturm Graz sit at 2.00 PPG from 39 outings (24W 6D 9L), a run that reads W-W-L-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Sturm Graz, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Sturm Graz carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.03 PPG clear of SCR Altach — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
SCR Altach's home form reads 4W 10D 5L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.16 PPG return.
Away from home, Sturm Graz have taken 2.05 points per game from 19 outings (12W 3D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sturm Graz come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
SCR Altach are averaging 0.87 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Sturm Graz are on 2.00 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Last 39 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SCR Altach
Blended
Sturm Graz
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SCR Altach and Sturm Graz in coming into this match?
SCR Altach have gone 8W 14D 17L in their last 39 games (0.97 PPG), while Sturm Graz have gone 24W 6D 9L in their last 39 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SCR Altach at home or Sturm Graz away?
Sturm Graz's away record (2.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SCR Altach at home: 1.16 PPG; Sturm Graz away: 2.05 PPG.
Have SCR Altach or Sturm Graz been keeping clean sheets recently?
SCR Altach have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Sturm Graz in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 15 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Sturm Graz have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Aug 2022, when Sturm Graz won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SCR Altach's record when hosting Sturm Graz specifically: 0W 2D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
SCR Altach
2
Draws
8
Sturm Graz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SCR Altach and Sturm Graz?
From 10 meetings on record, SCR Altach have won 0, Sturm Graz have won 8, and 2 have been drawn.
When did SCR Altach and Sturm Graz last play each other?
They last met on 15 August 2026, when Sturm Graz 1-0 SCR Altach.
Who has won more matches between SCR Altach and Sturm Graz?
Sturm Graz have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
SCR Altach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Sturm Graz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SCR Altach 53%, Sturm Graz 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 26% (SCR Altach) and 68% (Sturm Graz).
On the defensive side: SCR Altach keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Sturm Graz in 32%; SCR Altach have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SCR Altach home games / Sturm Graz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SCR Altach play Sturm Graz?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of SCR Altach's games and 63% of Sturm Graz's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SCR Altach vs Sturm Graz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 26% of SCR Altach's recent games and 68% of Sturm Graz's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SCR Altach and Sturm Graz tend to score early?
SCR Altach have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Sturm Graz in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sturm Graz cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over SCR Altach.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sturm Graz beat SCR Altach 0-2 at Cashpoint-Arena, Regular Season - 9, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SCR Altach 0.72 xG and Sturm Graz 1.38 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SCR Altach attack 0.81 / defence 0.83 against Sturm Graz attack 1.36 / defence 0.68, drawn from 30/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SCR Altach 19% | Draw 28% | Sturm Graz 53%, with Sturm Graz to win its most likely call at 53%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SCR Altach 33%, Sturm Graz 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SCR Altach's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sturm Graz's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Sturm Graz arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.97. That form edge translated into the three points. SCR Altach (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.95 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sturm Graz (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.