SCR Altach 0-1 Rapid Vienna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SCR Altach at 40%, yet in-form Rapid Vienna provide a compelling counter-argument — this SCR Altach vs Rapid Vienna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
SCR Altach host Rapid Vienna at CASHPOINT Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 6 October 2024 at 13:30 UTC.
Form Guide
SCR Altach — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: L D D L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for SCR Altach, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, SCR Altach have posted 1W 6D 3L at CASHPOINT Arena — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Rapid Vienna stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Rapid Vienna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Rapid Vienna have posted 2W 5D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Rapid Vienna — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.80 vs 1.20). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Rapid Vienna have the better historical record — 5 wins from 6 previous contests against 1 for SCR Altach.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Nov 2023, ended 0–2 with Rapid Vienna winning.
It is worth noting that Rapid Vienna have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 6 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Profile
SCR Altach in-play tendencies (40 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Rapid Vienna in-play tendencies (40 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SCR Altach 48% versus Rapid Vienna 45%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (SCR Altach 40% | Rapid Vienna 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SCR Altach 1.16 xG and Rapid Vienna 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SCR Altach attack 0.784 / defence 0.898 | Rapid Vienna attack 0.835 / defence 0.973. League average goals — home 1.517 / away 1.233. SCR Altach's attack strength of 0.784 is below the league average — the 1.16 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 30 SCR Altach games / 30 Rapid Vienna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SCR Altach 40% | Draw 31% | Rapid Vienna 28%. Fair-value odds: SCR Altach 2.50 | Draw 3.23 | Rapid Vienna 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SCR Altach at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Rapid Vienna (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SCR Altach offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.08 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates are neutral: SCR Altach 50% | Rapid Vienna 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SCR Altach vs Rapid Vienna | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: CASHPOINT Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Oct 2024, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SCR Altach 40% | Draw 31% | Rapid Vienna 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 42% | xG SCR Altach 1.16 / Rapid Vienna 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: SCR Altach attack 0.784 / def 0.898 | Rapid Vienna attack 0.835 / def 0.973 | league avg home 1.517 / away 1.233 • Poisson stance: SCR Altach (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
SCR Altach xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Rapid Vienna xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SCR Altach vs Rapid Vienna kick off?
SCR Altach vs Rapid Vienna kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 6 October 2024 at CASHPOINT Arena.
What was the final score in SCR Altach vs Rapid Vienna?
SCR Altach 0 - 1 Rapid Vienna.
Where is SCR Altach vs Rapid Vienna being played?
The match is being played at CASHPOINT Arena.
What competition is SCR Altach vs Rapid Vienna part of?
SCR Altach vs Rapid Vienna is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win SCR Altach vs Rapid Vienna?
Our statistical model gives SCR Altach a 40% chance of winning, Rapid Vienna a 28% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making SCR Altach the favourite.
Will both teams score in SCR Altach vs Rapid Vienna?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both SCR Altach and Rapid Vienna will score (BTTS).
Will SCR Altach vs Rapid Vienna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between SCR Altach and Rapid Vienna?
Record (6 meetings): SCR Altach 1W | Draws 0 | Rapid Vienna 5W.
What form are SCR Altach and Rapid Vienna in?
SCR Altach (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-D-L-L. Rapid Vienna (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from SCR Altach's attack rating (0.78) and Rapid Vienna's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.16 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Rapid Vienna's attack versus SCR Altach's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.2%), 1-0 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SCR Altach Win
40%
2.48
31%
3.18
28%
3.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
SCR Altach xG
Total xG
2.08
0.93
Rapid Vienna xG
2.48
40%
Home win
3.18
31%
Draw
3.53
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.37
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
40%
2.52
31%
3.18
Win to Nil
16%
6.27
9%
11.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.5 | 11.5 | 5.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.4 | 13.3 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 7.7 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SCR Altach vs Rapid Vienna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are SCR Altach and Rapid Vienna expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for SCR Altach and 0.93 for Rapid Vienna, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for SCR Altach vs Rapid Vienna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
SCR Altach come into this having played 40 games, going 8W 15D 17L for 0.98 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-L-L. The sample for SCR Altach is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Rapid Vienna sit at 1.50 PPG from 40 outings (15W 15D 10L), a run that reads L-W-D-W-D across their last five. The sample for Rapid Vienna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Rapid Vienna carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.52 PPG clear of SCR Altach — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
SCR Altach's home form reads 4W 8D 7L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.05 PPG return.
Away from home, Rapid Vienna have taken 1.47 points per game from 19 outings (7W 7D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rapid Vienna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
SCR Altach are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Rapid Vienna are on 1.45 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Defensively: Rapid Vienna in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SCR Altach
Blended
Rapid Vienna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SCR Altach and Rapid Vienna in coming into this match?
SCR Altach have gone 8W 15D 17L in their last 40 games (0.98 PPG), while Rapid Vienna have gone 15W 15D 10L in their last 40 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SCR Altach at home or Rapid Vienna away?
Rapid Vienna's away record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SCR Altach at home: 1.05 PPG; Rapid Vienna away: 1.47 PPG.
Have SCR Altach or Rapid Vienna been keeping clean sheets recently?
SCR Altach have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Rapid Vienna in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 1 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Mar 2025, when Rapid Vienna won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SCR Altach's record when hosting Rapid Vienna specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
SCR Altach
2
Draws
7
Rapid Vienna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SCR Altach and Rapid Vienna?
From 10 meetings on record, SCR Altach have won 1, Rapid Vienna have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did SCR Altach and Rapid Vienna last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2026, when SCR Altach 1-1 Rapid Vienna.
Who has won more matches between SCR Altach and Rapid Vienna?
Rapid Vienna have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
SCR Altach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Rapid Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SCR Altach 47%, Rapid Vienna 37% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 37% for SCR Altach and 32% for Rapid Vienna.
On the defensive side: SCR Altach keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Rapid Vienna in 37%; SCR Altach have failed to score in 37% of games; Rapid Vienna in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SCR Altach home games / Rapid Vienna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SCR Altach play Rapid Vienna?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of SCR Altach's recent matches and 37% of Rapid Vienna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SCR Altach vs Rapid Vienna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of SCR Altach's recent games and 32% of Rapid Vienna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SCR Altach and Rapid Vienna tend to score early?
SCR Altach have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Rapid Vienna in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Rapid Vienna defy the odds to beat SCR Altach 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rapid Vienna beat SCR Altach 0-1 at CASHPOINT Arena, Regular Season - 9, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SCR Altach 1.16 xG and Rapid Vienna 0.93 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. SCR Altach fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SCR Altach attack 0.78 / defence 0.90 against Rapid Vienna attack 0.83 / defence 0.97, drawn from 30/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SCR Altach 40% | Draw 31% | Rapid Vienna 28%, with SCR Altach to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Rapid Vienna win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SCR Altach 40%, Rapid Vienna 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SCR Altach's trading profile (40 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Rapid Vienna's trading profile (40 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Rapid Vienna arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.98. The form guide was vindicated by the result. SCR Altach (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.95 scoring average — below par going forward. Rapid Vienna (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.