Rapid Vienna 0-0 FC BW Linz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rapid Vienna at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rapid Vienna vs FC BW Linz fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Rapid Vienna host FC BW Linz at Allianz Stadion in Bundesliga, Championship Round - 6. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 27 April 2025 at 13:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Rapid Vienna have gone 3W 0D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L L W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Rapid Vienna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Rapid Vienna have posted 6W 1D 3L at Allianz Stadion — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Rapid Vienna are significantly better at Allianz Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC BW Linz stand at 4W 0D 6L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for FC BW Linz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC BW Linz away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Rapid Vienna at 0.90 PPG versus FC BW Linz's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Rapid Vienna, 3 for FC BW Linz and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Apr 2025, ended 1–2 with FC BW Linz winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Rapid Vienna in-play and half-time data (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).
FC BW Linz in-play and half-time data (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rapid Vienna 48% versus FC BW Linz 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rapid Vienna 42% | FC BW Linz 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rapid Vienna 1.67 xG and FC BW Linz 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rapid Vienna attack 1.209 / defence 0.862 | FC BW Linz attack 0.958 / defence 0.865. League average goals — home 1.597 / away 1.200. Data: 44 Rapid Vienna games / 44 FC BW Linz games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rapid Vienna 51% | Draw 30% | FC BW Linz 20%. Fair-value odds: Rapid Vienna 1.96 | Draw 3.33 | FC BW Linz 5.00. Rapid Vienna hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Rapid Vienna are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rapid Vienna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.66 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Rapid Vienna 40% | FC BW Linz 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rapid Vienna vs FC BW Linz | Competition: Bundesliga, Championship Round - 6 | Venue: Allianz Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Apr 2025, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rapid Vienna 51% | Draw 30% | FC BW Linz 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG Rapid Vienna 1.67 / FC BW Linz 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Rapid Vienna attack 1.209 / def 0.862 | FC BW Linz attack 0.958 / def 0.865 | league avg home 1.597 / away 1.200 • Poisson stance: Rapid Vienna (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
Rapid Vienna xG
Expected Goals
0.99
FC BW Linz xG
54%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rapid Vienna vs FC BW Linz kick off?
Rapid Vienna vs FC BW Linz kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 27 April 2025 at Allianz Stadion.
What was the final score in Rapid Vienna vs FC BW Linz?
Rapid Vienna 0 - 0 FC BW Linz.
Where is Rapid Vienna vs FC BW Linz being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Stadion.
What competition is Rapid Vienna vs FC BW Linz part of?
Rapid Vienna vs FC BW Linz is a Championship Round - 6 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Rapid Vienna vs FC BW Linz?
Our statistical model gives Rapid Vienna a 51% chance of winning, FC BW Linz a 20% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Rapid Vienna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rapid Vienna vs FC BW Linz?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Rapid Vienna and FC BW Linz will score (BTTS).
Will Rapid Vienna vs FC BW Linz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rapid Vienna and FC BW Linz?
Record (5 meetings): Rapid Vienna 2W | Draws 0 | FC BW Linz 3W.
What form are Rapid Vienna and FC BW Linz in?
Rapid Vienna (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. FC BW Linz (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Rapid Vienna's attack at 1.21x the league average against FC BW Linz's defence at 0.86x — combine the two and it projects 1.67 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, FC BW Linz's attack versus Rapid Vienna's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.2%), 2-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rapid Vienna Win
51%
1.98
30%
3.35
20%
5.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
2 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
Rapid Vienna xG
Total xG
2.66
0.99
FC BW Linz xG
1.98
51%
Home win
3.35
30%
Draw
5.10
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
37%
2.69
19%
5.32
Win to Nil
19%
5.33
4%
27.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 6.9 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 11.6 | 5.7 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.7 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rapid Vienna vs FC BW Linz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Rapid Vienna and FC BW Linz expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Rapid Vienna and 0.99 for FC BW Linz, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Rapid Vienna vs FC BW Linz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 59 outings, Rapid Vienna have picked up 1.39 PPG on a 21W 19D 19L record — L-L-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Rapid Vienna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC BW Linz's form line: 18W 14D 27L from 59 games, 1.15 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-W. The sample for FC BW Linz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Rapid Vienna on 1.39 PPG, FC BW Linz on 1.15. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Rapid Vienna have posted 1.62 PPG from 29 outings (13W 8D 8L).
On the road, FC BW Linz have gone 6W 6D 17L from 29 away games — 0.83 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rapid Vienna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Rapid Vienna are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; FC BW Linz are on 1.14 scored and 1.46 conceded.
Last 59 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rapid Vienna
Blended
FC BW Linz
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rapid Vienna and FC BW Linz in coming into this match?
Rapid Vienna have gone 21W 19D 19L in their last 59 games (1.39 PPG), while FC BW Linz have gone 18W 14D 27L in their last 59 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rapid Vienna at home or FC BW Linz away?
Rapid Vienna's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rapid Vienna at home: 1.62 PPG; FC BW Linz away: 0.83 PPG.
Have Rapid Vienna or FC BW Linz been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rapid Vienna have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, FC BW Linz in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Rapid Vienna and FC BW Linz runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 14 December 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Aug 2023, when Rapid Vienna won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Rapid Vienna's record when hosting FC BW Linz specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Rapid Vienna
2
Draws
3
FC BW Linz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rapid Vienna and FC BW Linz?
From 8 meetings on record, Rapid Vienna have won 3, FC BW Linz have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Rapid Vienna and FC BW Linz last play each other?
They last met on 14 December 2025, when FC BW Linz 1-1 Rapid Vienna.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Rapid Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
FC BW Linz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rapid Vienna 45%, FC BW Linz 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Rapid Vienna) and 52% (FC BW Linz).
On the defensive side: Rapid Vienna keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; FC BW Linz in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rapid Vienna home games / FC BW Linz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rapid Vienna play FC BW Linz?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Rapid Vienna's recent matches and 55% of FC BW Linz's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Rapid Vienna vs FC BW Linz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Rapid Vienna's recent games and 52% of FC BW Linz's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rapid Vienna and FC BW Linz tend to score early?
Rapid Vienna have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, FC BW Linz in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Rapid Vienna's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rapid Vienna and FC BW Linz finished level at 0-0 at Allianz Stadion, Championship Round - 6, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rapid Vienna 1.67 xG and FC BW Linz 0.99 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Rapid Vienna fell 1.7 short of their projected output. FC BW Linz landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rapid Vienna attack 1.21 / defence 0.86 against FC BW Linz attack 0.96 / defence 0.86, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rapid Vienna 51% | Draw 30% | FC BW Linz 20%, with Rapid Vienna to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rapid Vienna 42%, FC BW Linz 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rapid Vienna's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
FC BW Linz's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rapid Vienna 1.39 PPG, FC BW Linz 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Rapid Vienna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.62 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line. FC BW Linz (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.97 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.72 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.