Sturm Graz 0-1 Austria Vienna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sturm Graz at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sturm Graz vs Austria Vienna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Austria Vienna make the trip to Merkur Arena to face Sturm Graz in Bundesliga, Championship Round - 6. The match kicks off on Sunday 27 April 2025 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
Sturm Graz (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sturm Graz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sturm Graz's home record at Merkur Arena: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 3.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Austria Vienna have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: W D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Austria Vienna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Austria Vienna's away record: 6W 1D 3L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.90 PPG for Sturm Graz against 1.90 for Austria Vienna. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Sturm Graz, 2 for Austria Vienna and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Apr 2025, ended 1–2 with Austria Vienna winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Sturm Graz — key trading statistics (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).
Austria Vienna — key trading statistics (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sturm Graz 56% versus Austria Vienna 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sturm Graz 56% | Austria Vienna 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sturm Graz 1.89 xG and Austria Vienna 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sturm Graz attack 1.470 / defence 1.072 | Austria Vienna attack 1.134 / defence 0.806. League average goals — home 1.597 / away 1.200. Sturm Graz carry an above-average attack strength of 1.470 — their λ of 1.89 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 44 Sturm Graz games / 44 Austria Vienna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sturm Graz 46% | Draw 27% | Austria Vienna 28%. Fair-value odds: Sturm Graz 2.17 | Draw 3.70 | Austria Vienna 3.57. Sturm Graz hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.35. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.35 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.89 / 1.46) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sturm Graz are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sturm Graz if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.35 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 67%. Form rates are neutral: Sturm Graz 50% | Austria Vienna 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sturm Graz vs Austria Vienna | Competition: Bundesliga, Championship Round - 6 | Venue: Merkur Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Apr 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sturm Graz 46% | Draw 27% | Austria Vienna 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 67% | xG Sturm Graz 1.89 / Austria Vienna 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: Sturm Graz attack 1.470 / def 1.072 | Austria Vienna attack 1.134 / def 0.806 | league avg home 1.597 / away 1.200 • Poisson stance: Sturm Graz (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.89
Sturm Graz xG
Expected Goals
1.46
Austria Vienna xG
67%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sturm Graz vs Austria Vienna kick off?
Sturm Graz vs Austria Vienna kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 27 April 2025 at Merkur Arena.
What was the final score in Sturm Graz vs Austria Vienna?
Sturm Graz 0 - 1 Austria Vienna.
Where is Sturm Graz vs Austria Vienna being played?
The match is being played at Merkur Arena.
What competition is Sturm Graz vs Austria Vienna part of?
Sturm Graz vs Austria Vienna is a Championship Round - 6 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Sturm Graz vs Austria Vienna?
Our statistical model gives Sturm Graz a 46% chance of winning, Austria Vienna a 28% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Sturm Graz the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sturm Graz vs Austria Vienna?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Sturm Graz and Austria Vienna will score (BTTS).
Will Sturm Graz vs Austria Vienna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sturm Graz and Austria Vienna?
Record (5 meetings): Sturm Graz 1W | Draws 2 | Austria Vienna 2W.
What form are Sturm Graz and Austria Vienna in?
Sturm Graz (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-W-W-L. Austria Vienna (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Sturm Graz's attack at 1.47x the league average against Austria Vienna's defence at 0.81x — combine the two and it projects 1.89 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Austria Vienna's attack (1.13x) against Sturm Graz's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.46.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sturm Graz Win
46%
2.20
27%
3.71
28%
3.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 2
7.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.89
Sturm Graz xG
Total xG
3.35
1.46
Austria Vienna xG
2.20
46%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
3.63
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.48
33%
BTTS No
3.08
Clean Sheet
23%
4.30
15%
6.63
Win to Nil
11%
9.45
4%
24.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 5.1 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 9.7 | 7.1 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 9.2 | 6.7 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 5.8 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sturm Graz vs Austria Vienna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Sturm Graz and Austria Vienna expected to score?
The model projects 1.89 expected goals for Sturm Graz and 1.46 for Austria Vienna, a combined total of 3.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Sturm Graz vs Austria Vienna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sturm Graz's recent record stands at 36W 15D 8L from 59 games, a 2.08 PPG return, with D-W-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Sturm Graz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Austria Vienna, meanwhile, have gone 30W 15D 14L across 59 games — 1.78 PPG, with W-D-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Austria Vienna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.08 PPG for Sturm Graz against 1.78 for Austria Vienna. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Sturm Graz have managed 20W 6D 3L from 29 games — 2.28 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Austria Vienna's away record stands at 13W 5D 11L across 29 trips, a 1.52 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sturm Graz come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sturm Graz are averaging 1.95 goals scored and 0.93 conceded per game recently; Austria Vienna are on 1.34 scored and 0.95 conceded. Sturm Graz's scoring rate against Austria Vienna's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Sturm Graz have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games; Austria Vienna in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 59 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sturm Graz
Blended
Austria Vienna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sturm Graz and Austria Vienna in coming into this match?
Sturm Graz have gone 36W 15D 8L in their last 59 games (2.08 PPG), while Austria Vienna have gone 30W 15D 14L in their last 59 (1.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sturm Graz at home or Austria Vienna away?
Sturm Graz's home record (2.28 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sturm Graz at home: 2.28 PPG; Austria Vienna away: 1.52 PPG.
Have Sturm Graz or Austria Vienna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sturm Graz have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Austria Vienna in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since July 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sturm Graz won 0-3 on 30 Jul 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sturm Graz have gone 0W 2D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Austria Vienna — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Sturm Graz
3
Draws
5
Austria Vienna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sturm Graz and Austria Vienna?
From 10 meetings on record, Sturm Graz have won 2, Austria Vienna have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sturm Graz and Austria Vienna last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when Sturm Graz 1-1 Austria Vienna.
Who has won more matches between Sturm Graz and Austria Vienna?
Austria Vienna have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sturm Graz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Austria Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sturm Graz 41%, Austria Vienna 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Sturm Graz) and 38% (Austria Vienna).
On the defensive side: Sturm Graz keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Austria Vienna in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sturm Graz home games / Austria Vienna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sturm Graz play Austria Vienna?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Sturm Graz's recent matches and 45% of Austria Vienna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sturm Graz vs Austria Vienna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Sturm Graz's recent games and 38% of Austria Vienna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sturm Graz and Austria Vienna tend to score early?
Sturm Graz have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Austria Vienna in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Austria Vienna defy the odds to beat Sturm Graz 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Austria Vienna beat Sturm Graz 0-1 at Merkur Arena, Championship Round - 6, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sturm Graz 1.89 xG and Austria Vienna 1.46 xG, a combined 3.35. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Sturm Graz fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sturm Graz attack 1.47 / defence 1.07 against Austria Vienna attack 1.13 / defence 0.81, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sturm Graz 46% | Draw 27% | Austria Vienna 28%, with Sturm Graz to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Austria Vienna win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 87% and missed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sturm Graz 56%, Austria Vienna 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sturm Graz's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Austria Vienna's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sturm Graz 2.08 PPG, Austria Vienna 1.78 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Austria Vienna win broke the near-deadlock. Sturm Graz (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.14 scoring average — below par going forward. Austria Vienna (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.