FC BW Linz 0-0 Wolfsberger AC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC BW Linz at 39%, yet in-form Wolfsberger AC provide a compelling counter-argument — this FC BW Linz vs Wolfsberger AC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC BW Linz host Wolfsberger AC at Hofmann Personal Stadion in Bundesliga (Relegation Round - 3). Kick-off is Saturday 6 April 2024 at 19:30 UK time.
Form Guide
FC BW Linz — last 10 games: 0W 5D 5L, averaging 0.50 points per game. Last five: L L L D D. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
FC BW Linz's form when playing at home: 2W 6D 2L across their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — FC BW Linz are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Wolfsberger AC stand at 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L D D D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Wolfsberger AC's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Form points away from home here. Wolfsberger AC's 1.20 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of FC BW Linz's 0.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
In-Play Data
FC BW Linz trading profile (last 24 games, 12 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Wolfsberger AC trading profile (last 24 games, 12 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC BW Linz 46% versus Wolfsberger AC 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC BW Linz 38% | Wolfsberger AC 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC BW Linz 1.28 xG and Wolfsberger AC 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC BW Linz attack 0.833 / defence 1.182 | Wolfsberger AC attack 0.927 / defence 1.143. League average goals — home 1.339 / away 1.013. Data: built from FC BW Linz's last 22 games and Wolfsberger AC's last 44.
Result probabilities: FC BW Linz 39% | Draw 30% | Wolfsberger AC 31%. Fair-value odds: FC BW Linz 2.57 | Draw 3.29 | Wolfsberger AC 3.25. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC BW Linz are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Wolfsberger AC (1.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC BW Linz offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.38 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 57% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (FC BW Linz's last 10 home games and Wolfsberger AC's last 10 away games) averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: FC BW Linz 50% (last 10 home games) | Wolfsberger AC 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC BW Linz vs Wolfsberger AC | Competition: Bundesliga, Relegation Round - 3 | Venue: Hofmann Personal Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 6 April 2024 at 19:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC BW Linz 39% | Draw 30% | Wolfsberger AC 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% (Under 57%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG FC BW Linz 1.28 / Wolfsberger AC 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: FC BW Linz attack 0.833 / def 1.182 | Wolfsberger AC attack 0.927 / def 1.143 | league avg home 1.339 / away 1.013 • Poisson stance: FC BW Linz (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
FC BW Linz xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Wolfsberger AC xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ FC BW Linz vs Wolfsberger AC FAQs
What time does FC BW Linz vs Wolfsberger AC kick off?
FC BW Linz vs Wolfsberger AC kicked off at 19:30 UK time on Saturday 6 April 2024 at Hofmann Personal Stadion.
What was the final score in FC BW Linz vs Wolfsberger AC?
FC BW Linz 0 - 0 Wolfsberger AC.
Where is FC BW Linz vs Wolfsberger AC being played?
The match is being played at Hofmann Personal Stadion.
What competition is FC BW Linz vs Wolfsberger AC part of?
FC BW Linz vs Wolfsberger AC is a Bundesliga fixture (Relegation Round - 3) (Austria).
Who is favourite to win FC BW Linz vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our statistical model gives FC BW Linz a 39% chance of winning, Wolfsberger AC a 31% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making FC BW Linz the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC BW Linz vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both FC BW Linz and Wolfsberger AC will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will FC BW Linz vs Wolfsberger AC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (57%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
FC BW Linz's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against Wolfsberger AC's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.28. The same calculation in reverse, Wolfsberger AC's attack versus FC BW Linz's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from FC BW Linz's last 22 games and Wolfsberger AC's last 44 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.9%), 1-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC BW Linz Win
39%
2.57
30%
3.29
31%
3.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
FC BW Linz xG
Total xG
2.38
1.11
Wolfsberger AC xG
2.57
39%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
3.25
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
33%
3.03
28%
3.58
Win to Nil
13%
7.80
9%
11.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 10.2 | 5.7 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 13.0 | 7.2 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 8.3 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ FC BW Linz vs Wolfsberger AC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for FC BW Linz vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are FC BW Linz and Wolfsberger AC expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for FC BW Linz and 1.11 for Wolfsberger AC, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for FC BW Linz vs Wolfsberger AC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 24 outings, FC BW Linz have picked up 0.88 PPG on a 4W 9D 11L record — L-L-L-D-D across the most recent five.
Wolfsberger AC's form line: 8W 8D 8L from 24 games, 1.33 PPG, last five W-L-D-D-D.
Put side by side, Wolfsberger AC are the form team by 0.45 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against FC BW Linz.
Venue Form
On home soil, FC BW Linz have posted 1.08 PPG from their last 12 home games (2W 7D 3L).
On the road, Wolfsberger AC have gone 3W 5D 4L from their last 12 away games — 1.17 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
FC BW Linz are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Wolfsberger AC are on 1.25 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Last 24 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC BW Linz
Blended
Wolfsberger AC
Blended
FC BW Linz (Home) vs Wolfsberger AC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
FC BW Linz
Blended
Wolfsberger AC
Blended
❓ FC BW Linz vs Wolfsberger AC Form FAQs
What form are FC BW Linz and Wolfsberger AC in coming into this match?
FC BW Linz have gone 4W 9D 11L in their last 24 games (0.88 PPG), while Wolfsberger AC have gone 8W 8D 8L in their last 24 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC BW Linz at home or Wolfsberger AC away?
Wolfsberger AC's away record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC BW Linz at home: 1.08 PPG; Wolfsberger AC away: 1.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from April 2024. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was on 21 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 17 Aug 2025, when Wolfsberger AC won Wolfsberger AC 3-0 FC BW Linz.
FC BW Linz's record when hosting Wolfsberger AC specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
FC BW Linz
2
Draws
4
Wolfsberger AC
Recent Meetings
❓ FC BW Linz vs Wolfsberger AC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between FC BW Linz and Wolfsberger AC?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, FC BW Linz have won 4, Wolfsberger AC have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC BW Linz and Wolfsberger AC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 21 April 2026: FC BW Linz 3-0 Wolfsberger AC.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC BW Linz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Wolfsberger AC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC BW Linz 50%, Wolfsberger AC 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (FC BW Linz) and 42% (Wolfsberger AC).
On the defensive side: FC BW Linz keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; FC BW Linz have failed to score in 33% of games; Wolfsberger AC in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC BW Linz home games / Wolfsberger AC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ FC BW Linz vs Wolfsberger AC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in FC BW Linz and Wolfsberger AC matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of FC BW Linz's recent matches and 42% of Wolfsberger AC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are FC BW Linz and Wolfsberger AC matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of FC BW Linz's recent games and 42% of Wolfsberger AC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC BW Linz and Wolfsberger AC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of FC BW Linz's recent matches and 67% of Wolfsberger AC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at FC BW Linz's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC BW Linz and Wolfsberger AC finished level at 0-0 at Hofmann Personal Stadion, Relegation Round - 3, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC BW Linz 1.28 xG and Wolfsberger AC 1.11 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. FC BW Linz fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Wolfsberger AC landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC BW Linz attack 0.83 / defence 1.18 against Wolfsberger AC attack 0.93 / defence 1.14, drawn from 22/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC BW Linz 39% | Draw 30% | Wolfsberger AC 31%, with FC BW Linz to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC BW Linz 38%, Wolfsberger AC 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC BW Linz's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Wolfsberger AC's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Wolfsberger AC arrived the stronger side — 1.33 PPG against 0.88. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. FC BW Linz (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line. Wolfsberger AC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.58 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.