Austria Lustenau 0-4 Lask Linz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Lask Linz (47%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Austria Lustenau face Lask Linz.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Austria Lustenau host Lask Linz at Planet Pure Stadion in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 17 October 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Austria Lustenau have gone 2W 2D 4L from 8 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: D L L W L. They are averaging 1.38 goals per game and conceding 1.88 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 8 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Austria Lustenau, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Austria Lustenau have posted 2W 1D 1L at Planet Pure Stadion — 1.75 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.75 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Austria Lustenau are significantly better at Planet Pure Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Lask Linz — All Games: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W L D L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Lask Linz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Lask Linz have posted 5W 3D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.80 PPG. They are averaging 2.50 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Lask Linz's 2.20 PPG return is 1.20 points per game ahead of Austria Lustenau's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Lask Linz have the better historical record — 3 wins from 4 previous contests against 0 for Austria Lustenau.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Dec 2023, ended 1–3 with Lask Linz winning.
It is worth noting that Lask Linz have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 4 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Patterns
Austria Lustenau in-play and half-time data (8 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 50% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Lask Linz in-play and half-time data (8 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Austria Lustenau 75% and Lask Linz 50% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Austria Lustenau 62% | Lask Linz 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Austria Lustenau 1.40 xG and Lask Linz 1.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Austria Lustenau attack 0.781 / defence 1.228 | Lask Linz attack 1.263 / defence 1.017. League average goals — home 1.756 / away 1.240. Austria Lustenau's attack strength of 0.781 is below the league average — the 1.40 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Lask Linz have an above-average attack strength of 1.263 — the away xG of 1.92 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 8 Austria Lustenau games / 30 Lask Linz games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Austria Lustenau 25% | Draw 27% | Lask Linz 47%. Fair-value odds: Austria Lustenau 4.00 | Draw 3.70 | Lask Linz 2.13. Lask Linz hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.32. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.32 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.40 / 1.92) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lask Linz at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lask Linz offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.32 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 67% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Austria Lustenau 50% | Lask Linz 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Austria Lustenau vs Lask Linz | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Planet Pure Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Austria Lustenau 25% | Draw 27% | Lask Linz 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 67% | xG Austria Lustenau 1.40 / Lask Linz 1.92 • Poisson strength factors: Austria Lustenau attack 0.781 / def 1.228 | Lask Linz attack 1.263 / def 1.017 | league avg home 1.756 / away 1.240 • Poisson stance: Lask Linz (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Austria Lustenau xG
Expected Goals
1.92
Lask Linz xG
67%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Austria Lustenau vs Lask Linz kick off?
Austria Lustenau vs Lask Linz kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 17 October 2026 at Planet Pure Stadion.
What was the final score in Austria Lustenau vs Lask Linz?
Austria Lustenau 0 - 4 Lask Linz.
Where is Austria Lustenau vs Lask Linz being played?
The match is being played at Planet Pure Stadion.
What competition is Austria Lustenau vs Lask Linz part of?
Austria Lustenau vs Lask Linz is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Austria Lustenau vs Lask Linz?
Our statistical model gives Austria Lustenau a 25% chance of winning, Lask Linz a 47% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Lask Linz the favourite.
Will both teams score in Austria Lustenau vs Lask Linz?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Austria Lustenau and Lask Linz will score (BTTS).
Will Austria Lustenau vs Lask Linz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Lustenau and Lask Linz?
Record (4 meetings): Austria Lustenau 0W | Draws 1 | Lask Linz 3W.
What form are Austria Lustenau and Lask Linz in?
Austria Lustenau (all comps): 2W-2D-4L in 8 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.38 / GA 1.88 | L5 D-L-L-W-L. Lask Linz (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Austria Lustenau's attacking strength (0.78x league average) is weighed against Lask Linz's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.40. The same calculation in reverse, Lask Linz's attack versus Austria Lustenau's defence, projects 1.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 8/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 2-1 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Lask Linz Win
25%
3.93
27%
3.69
47%
2.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
0 – 1
7.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Austria Lustenau xG
Total xG
3.32
1.92
Lask Linz xG
3.93
25%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
2.11
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.50
33%
BTTS No
3.00
Clean Sheet
15%
6.85
25%
4.03
Win to Nil
4%
26.92
12%
8.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 7.0 | 6.7 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 5.0 | 9.7 | 9.3 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 6.8 | 6.5 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Austria Lustenau vs Lask Linz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Austria Lustenau and Lask Linz expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Austria Lustenau and 1.92 for Lask Linz, a combined total of 3.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Austria Lustenau vs Lask Linz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Austria Lustenau come into this having played 8 games, going 2W 2D 4L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-W-L. The sample for Austria Lustenau is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Lask Linz sit at 2.00 PPG from 8 outings (5W 1D 2L), a run that reads W-W-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for Lask Linz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lask Linz carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of Austria Lustenau — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Austria Lustenau's home form reads 2W 1D 1L across 4 games on their own ground, a 1.75 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.00 PPG overall — Austria Lustenau are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Lask Linz have taken 1.75 points per game from 4 outings (2W 1D 1L).
Goals in Recent Form
Austria Lustenau are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game recently; Lask Linz are on 2.38 scored and 1.12 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Austria Lustenau have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games.
Defensively: Lask Linz in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 8 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Austria Lustenau
Blended
Lask Linz
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Austria Lustenau and Lask Linz in coming into this match?
Austria Lustenau have gone 2W 2D 4L in their last 8 games (1.00 PPG), while Lask Linz have gone 5W 1D 2L in their last 8 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Austria Lustenau at home or Lask Linz away?
Austria Lustenau's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Austria Lustenau at home: 1.75 PPG; Lask Linz away: 1.75 PPG.
Have Austria Lustenau or Lask Linz been keeping clean sheets recently?
Austria Lustenau have kept a clean sheet in 12% of their recent games, Lask Linz in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 17 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Lask Linz go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Oct 2026, when Lask Linz won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Austria Lustenau's record when hosting Lask Linz specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
0
Austria Lustenau
1
Draws
4
Lask Linz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Lustenau and Lask Linz?
From 5 meetings on record, Austria Lustenau have won 0, Lask Linz have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Austria Lustenau and Lask Linz last play each other?
They last met on 17 October 2026, when Austria Lustenau 0-4 Lask Linz.
Who has won more matches between Austria Lustenau and Lask Linz?
Lask Linz have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Austria Lustenau are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Lask Linz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Austria Lustenau 50%, Lask Linz 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Austria Lustenau and 75% for Lask Linz. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Austria Lustenau home games / Lask Linz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Austria Lustenau play Lask Linz?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Austria Lustenau's games and 75% of Lask Linz's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Austria Lustenau vs Lask Linz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Austria Lustenau's matches and 75% of Lask Linz's.
Do Austria Lustenau and Lask Linz tend to score early?
Austria Lustenau have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Lask Linz in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Lask Linz run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Austria Lustenau.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lask Linz beat Austria Lustenau 0-4 at Planet Pure Stadion, Regular Season - 9, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Austria Lustenau 1.40 xG and Lask Linz 1.92 xG, a combined 3.32. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Austria Lustenau fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Lask Linz outscored their 1.92 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Austria Lustenau attack 0.78 / defence 1.23 against Lask Linz attack 1.26 / defence 1.02, drawn from 8/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Austria Lustenau 25% | Draw 27% | Lask Linz 47%, with Lask Linz to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Austria Lustenau 62%, Lask Linz 75%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Austria Lustenau's trading profile (8 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not.
Lask Linz's trading profile (8 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Lask Linz arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.00. Form held, and they took the win. Austria Lustenau (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Lask Linz (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.25 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.