Dibba Al Hisn 1-2 Al Bataeh – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al Bataeh at 58% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dibba Al Hisn vs Al Bataeh encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium plays host to Dibba Al Hisn versus Al Bataeh in Pro League, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off: Friday 20 September 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
Dibba Al Hisn's overall Pro League record this term: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games (0.00 PPG). Last five: L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Dibba Al Hisn have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al Bataeh have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: W W W L D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Al Bataeh have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al Bataeh's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On a straight form reading, Al Bataeh are the stronger side — 1.30 PPG clear of the hosts (1.30 vs 0.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dibba Al Hisn 1.27 xG and Al Bataeh 2.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dibba Al Hisn attack 0.809 / defence 1.359 | Al Bataeh attack 1.029 / defence 0.919. League average goals — home 1.712 / away 1.573. Data: 2 Dibba Al Hisn games / 28 Al Bataeh games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Dibba Al Hisn 21% | Draw 20% | Al Bataeh 58%. Fair-value odds: Dibba Al Hisn 4.76 | Draw 5.00 | Al Bataeh 1.72. The model has a clear lean to Al Bataeh (58%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.47. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.47 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.27 / 2.20) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al Bataeh are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.47 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 67% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dibba Al Hisn vs Al Bataeh | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 20 Sep 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dibba Al Hisn 21% | Draw 20% | Al Bataeh 58% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 64% | xG Dibba Al Hisn 1.27 / Al Bataeh 2.20 • Poisson strength factors: Dibba Al Hisn attack 0.809 / def 1.359 | Al Bataeh attack 1.029 / def 0.919 | league avg home 1.712 / away 1.573 • Poisson stance: Al Bataeh (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Dibba Al Hisn xG
Expected Goals
2.20
Al Bataeh xG
64%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dibba Al Hisn vs Al Bataeh kick off?
Dibba Al Hisn vs Al Bataeh kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 20 September 2024 at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium.
What was the final score in Dibba Al Hisn vs Al Bataeh?
Dibba Al Hisn 1 - 2 Al Bataeh.
Where is Dibba Al Hisn vs Al Bataeh being played?
The match is being played at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium.
What competition is Dibba Al Hisn vs Al Bataeh part of?
Dibba Al Hisn vs Al Bataeh is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Dibba Al Hisn vs Al Bataeh?
Our statistical model gives Dibba Al Hisn a 21% chance of winning, Al Bataeh a 58% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Al Bataeh the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dibba Al Hisn vs Al Bataeh?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Dibba Al Hisn and Al Bataeh will score (BTTS).
Will Dibba Al Hisn vs Al Bataeh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dibba Al Hisn and Al Bataeh?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Dibba Al Hisn and Al Bataeh in?
Dibba Al Hisn (all comps): 0W-0D-2L in 2 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L. Al Bataeh (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Dibba Al Hisn's attacking strength (0.81x league average) is weighed against Al Bataeh's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.27. Flip it around — Al Bataeh's attack (1.03x) against Dibba Al Hisn's defence (1.36x) — and the away total comes out at 2.20.
The sample (2/28 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Bataeh Win
21%
4.67
20%
4.97
58%
1.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.7%
Draw
0 – 2
7.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Dibba Al Hisn xG
Total xG
3.47
2.20
Al Bataeh xG
4.67
21%
Home win
4.97
20%
Draw
1.71
58%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.78
Clean Sheet
11%
9.03
28%
3.58
Win to Nil
2%
42.11
16%
6.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 6.8 | 7.5 | 5.5 | 3.0 | 1.3 |
| 1 | 3.9 | 8.7 | 9.6 | 7.0 | 3.9 | 1.7 |
| 2 | 2.5 | 5.5 | 6.1 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 1.1 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dibba Al Hisn vs Al Bataeh?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are Dibba Al Hisn and Al Bataeh expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Dibba Al Hisn and 2.20 for Al Bataeh, a combined total of 3.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Dibba Al Hisn vs Al Bataeh?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 2 outings, Dibba Al Hisn have picked up 0.00 PPG on a 0W 0D 2L record — L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Dibba Al Hisn, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al Bataeh's form line: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games, 0.50 PPG, last five L-D. It's still early in the season for Al Bataeh, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Al Bataeh are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Dibba Al Hisn.
Attack vs Defence
Dibba Al Hisn are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game recently; Al Bataeh are on 2.00 scored and 2.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Bataeh in 100%.
Last 2 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dibba Al Hisn
Early Season
Al Bataeh
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dibba Al Hisn and Al Bataeh in coming into this match?
Dibba Al Hisn have gone 0W 0D 2L in their last 2 games (0.00 PPG), while Al Bataeh have gone 0W 1D 1L in their last 2 (0.50 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Dibba Al Hisn
1
Draws
1
Al Bataeh
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dibba Al Hisn and Al Bataeh?
From 2 meetings on record, Dibba Al Hisn have won 0, Al Bataeh have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Dibba Al Hisn and Al Bataeh last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2025, when Al Bataeh 2-2 Dibba Al Hisn.
Who has won more matches between Dibba Al Hisn and Al Bataeh?
Al Bataeh have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dibba Al Hisn home games / Al Bataeh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dibba Al Hisn play Al Bataeh?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Dibba Al Hisn's games and 100% of Al Bataeh's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Dibba Al Hisn vs Al Bataeh usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Dibba Al Hisn's matches and 100% of Al Bataeh's.
Do Dibba Al Hisn and Al Bataeh tend to score early?
Dibba Al Hisn have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Al Bataeh in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al Bataeh edge out Dibba Al Hisn 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Bataeh beat Dibba Al Hisn 1-2 at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium, Regular Season - 3, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dibba Al Hisn 1.27 xG and Al Bataeh 2.20 xG, a combined 3.47. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dibba Al Hisn attack 0.81 / defence 1.36 against Al Bataeh attack 1.03 / defence 0.92, drawn from 2/28 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Dibba Al Hisn 21% | Draw 20% | Al Bataeh 58%, with Al Bataeh to win its most likely call at 58%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dibba Al Hisn 50%, Al Bataeh 100%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Bataeh arrived the stronger side — 0.50 PPG against 0.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al Bataeh conceded 1 against a 2.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.