Baniyas SC 0-1 Hatta SC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Baniyas SC at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Baniyas SC vs Hatta SC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Hatta SC make the trip to Baniyas Stadium to face Baniyas SC in Pro League, Regular Season - 4. The match kicks off on Saturday 5 September 2026 at 13:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Baniyas SC have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 1W 4D 5L. Last five: D L L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.20 conceded. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Baniyas SC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Baniyas SC's home record at Baniyas Stadium: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Pro League appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Hatta SC's overall Pro League record this term: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games (0.00 PPG). Last five: L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 3.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 3.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Hatta SC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The points-per-game gap of 0.70 in Baniyas SC's favour (0.70 vs 0.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Baniyas SC lead 2W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.5 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Apr 2024, ended 4–2 with Baniyas SC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Baniyas SC half-time and goal-timing data (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games; Over 3.5 in 67%.
Hatta SC half-time and goal-timing data (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they fail to score in 67% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Baniyas SC 100% and Hatta SC 33% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Baniyas SC 100% | Hatta SC 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Baniyas SC 2.36 xG and Hatta SC 2.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Baniyas SC attack 1.032 / defence 1.288 | Hatta SC attack 1.038 / defence 1.388. League average goals — home 1.648 / away 1.628. Hatta SC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.388 — this is suppressing Baniyas SC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 29 Baniyas SC games / 3 Hatta SC games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Baniyas SC 44% | Draw 19% | Hatta SC 37%. Fair-value odds: Baniyas SC 2.27 | Draw 5.26 | Hatta SC 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 19% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 83% | BTTS probability 80% | Total xG 4.54. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 83% — a total xG of 4.54 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 80% reflects that both xG figures (2.36 / 2.18) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Baniyas SC as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 4.54 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 83% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 80% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Baniyas SC 80% | Hatta SC 33% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (3 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Baniyas SC vs Hatta SC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Baniyas Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Sep 2026, 13:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Baniyas SC 44% | Draw 19% | Hatta SC 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 83% | BTTS 80% | xG Baniyas SC 2.36 / Hatta SC 2.18 • Poisson strength factors: Baniyas SC attack 1.032 / def 1.288 | Hatta SC attack 1.038 / def 1.388 | league avg home 1.648 / away 1.628 • Poisson stance: Baniyas SC (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
2.36
Baniyas SC xG
Expected Goals
2.18
Hatta SC xG
80%
BTTS
94%
Over 1.5
83%
Over 2.5
66%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Baniyas SC vs Hatta SC kick off?
Baniyas SC vs Hatta SC kicked off at 13:45 on Saturday 5 September 2026 at Baniyas Stadium.
What was the final score in Baniyas SC vs Hatta SC?
Baniyas SC 0 - 1 Hatta SC.
Where is Baniyas SC vs Hatta SC being played?
The match is being played at Baniyas Stadium.
What competition is Baniyas SC vs Hatta SC part of?
Baniyas SC vs Hatta SC is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Baniyas SC vs Hatta SC?
Our statistical model gives Baniyas SC a 44% chance of winning, Hatta SC a 37% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Baniyas SC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Baniyas SC vs Hatta SC?
Our model estimates a 80% probability that both Baniyas SC and Hatta SC will score (BTTS).
Will Baniyas SC vs Hatta SC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 83%.
What is the head-to-head record between Baniyas SC and Hatta SC?
Record (2 meetings): Baniyas SC 2W | Draws 0 | Hatta SC 0W.
What form are Baniyas SC and Hatta SC in?
Baniyas SC (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-L-L-L-L. Hatta SC (all comps): 0W-0D-3L in 3 | 0.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 3.00 | L5 L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Baniyas SC's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against Hatta SC's defensive record (1.39x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.36. Flip it around — Hatta SC's attack (1.04x) against Baniyas SC's defence (1.29x) — and the away total comes out at 2.18.
The sample (29/3 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-2, at 7.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (6.5%), 1-1 (6.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 20% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Baniyas SC Win
44%
2.29
19%
5.19
37%
2.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 2
7.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
6.5%
Home win
1 – 2
6.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.36
Baniyas SC xG
Total xG
4.54
2.18
Hatta SC xG
2.29
44%
Home win
5.19
19%
Draw
2.70
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
94%
Over 1.5
1.06
6%
Under 1.5
16.67
83%
Over 2.5
1.20
17%
Under 2.5
5.88
66%
Over 3.5
1.52
34%
Under 3.5
2.94
48%
Over 4.5
2.08
52%
Under 4.5
1.92
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
80%
BTTS Yes
1.25
20%
BTTS No
5.07
Clean Sheet
11%
8.82
9%
10.60
Win to Nil
5%
20.18
3%
28.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.1 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 2.5 | 5.5 | 6.0 | 4.3 | 2.4 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 6.5 | 7.1 | 5.1 | 2.8 | 1.2 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 5.1 | 5.6 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 1.0 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 3.0 | 3.3 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Baniyas SC vs Hatta SC?
Our Poisson model rates 2-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 7.1%.
How many goals are Baniyas SC and Hatta SC expected to score?
The model projects 2.36 expected goals for Baniyas SC and 2.18 for Hatta SC, a combined total of 4.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Baniyas SC vs Hatta SC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Baniyas SC come into this having played 3 games, going 0W 0D 3L for 0.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L. It's still early in the season for Baniyas SC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Hatta SC sit at 0.00 PPG from 3 outings (0W 0D 3L), a run that reads L-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Hatta SC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.00 PPG for Baniyas SC against 0.00 for Hatta SC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Baniyas SC are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 3.00 conceded per game recently; Hatta SC are on 1.00 scored and 3.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Baniyas SC have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games.
Last 3 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Baniyas SC
Early Season
Hatta SC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Baniyas SC and Hatta SC in coming into this match?
Baniyas SC have gone 0W 0D 3L in their last 3 games (0.00 PPG), while Hatta SC have gone 0W 0D 3L in their last 3 (0.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 3 times since November 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 5 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Baniyas SC have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Hatta SC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 3 Meetings
2
Baniyas SC
0
Draws
1
Hatta SC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Baniyas SC and Hatta SC?
From 3 meetings on record, Baniyas SC have won 2, Hatta SC have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Baniyas SC and Hatta SC last play each other?
They last met on 5 September 2026, when Baniyas SC 0-1 Hatta SC.
Who has won more matches between Baniyas SC and Hatta SC?
Baniyas SC have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Baniyas SC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Hatta SC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 100% for Baniyas SC, 33% for Hatta SC — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Baniyas SC and 67% for Hatta SC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hatta SC in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Baniyas SC home games / Hatta SC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Baniyas SC play Hatta SC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Baniyas SC's games and 33% of Hatta SC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Baniyas SC vs Hatta SC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Baniyas SC's matches and 67% of Hatta SC's.
Do Baniyas SC and Hatta SC tend to score early?
Baniyas SC have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Hatta SC in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Hatta SC defy the odds to beat Baniyas SC 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hatta SC beat Baniyas SC 0-1 at Baniyas Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Baniyas SC 2.36 xG and Hatta SC 2.18 xG, a combined 4.54. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Baniyas SC fell 2.4 short of their projected output. Hatta SC landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Baniyas SC attack 1.03 / defence 1.29 against Hatta SC attack 1.04 / defence 1.39, drawn from 29/3 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Baniyas SC 44% | Draw 19% | Hatta SC 37%, with Baniyas SC to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Hatta SC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 83%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 94% and missed. Over 3.5 was 66% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 80% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 83% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Baniyas SC 100%, Hatta SC 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Baniyas SC's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did not.
Hatta SC's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Baniyas SC 0.00 PPG, Hatta SC 0.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hatta SC win broke the near-deadlock. Baniyas SC managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 3.00 average — tighter than their form line. Hatta SC conceded 0 against a 3.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.