Al-Jazira 3-1 Al Nasr – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Jazira at 46% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Jazira vs Al Nasr encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium plays host to Al-Jazira versus Al Nasr in Pro League, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off: Saturday 28 September 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Al-Jazira (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W L W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Al-Jazira have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Jazira at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al Nasr have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L L W W L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.50. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Al Nasr have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Al Nasr have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for Al-Jazira, 1.40 for Al Nasr — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Al-Jazira register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Al Nasr in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 6 meetings: Al-Jazira 4W, Al Nasr 2W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.8 goals per game across 6 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Feb 2024, ended 2–3 with Al Nasr winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Al-Jazira goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 79% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 59%.
Al Nasr goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 79% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Jazira 72% and Al Nasr 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Jazira 66% | Al Nasr 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Jazira 1.97 xG and Al Nasr 1.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Jazira attack 0.995 / defence 0.859 | Al Nasr attack 1.169 / defence 1.040. League average goals — home 1.901 / away 1.647. Data: 29 Al-Jazira games / 29 Al Nasr games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Al-Jazira 46% | Draw 22% | Al Nasr 33%. Fair-value odds: Al-Jazira 2.17 | Draw 4.55 | Al Nasr 3.03. Al-Jazira hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 3.62. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.62 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (1.97 / 1.65) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Jazira are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Jazira if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.62 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 70% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 70% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Jazira 70% | Al Nasr 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (29 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Jazira vs Al Nasr | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Sep 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Jazira 46% | Draw 22% | Al Nasr 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 70% | xG Al-Jazira 1.97 / Al Nasr 1.65 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Jazira attack 0.995 / def 0.859 | Al Nasr attack 1.169 / def 1.040 | league avg home 1.901 / away 1.647 • Poisson stance: Al-Jazira (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.97
Al-Jazira xG
Expected Goals
1.65
Al Nasr xG
70%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Jazira vs Al Nasr kick off?
Al-Jazira vs Al Nasr kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 28 September 2024 at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Jazira vs Al Nasr?
Al-Jazira 3 - 1 Al Nasr.
Where is Al-Jazira vs Al Nasr being played?
The match is being played at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium.
What competition is Al-Jazira vs Al Nasr part of?
Al-Jazira vs Al Nasr is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al-Jazira vs Al Nasr?
Our statistical model gives Al-Jazira a 46% chance of winning, Al Nasr a 33% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Al-Jazira the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Jazira vs Al Nasr?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both Al-Jazira and Al Nasr will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Jazira vs Al Nasr have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Jazira and Al Nasr?
Record (6 meetings): Al-Jazira 4W | Draws 0 | Al Nasr 2W.
What form are Al-Jazira and Al Nasr in?
Al-Jazira (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-L-W-L. Al Nasr (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Al-Jazira's attack at 0.99x the league average against Al Nasr's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.97 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al Nasr's attack (1.17x) against Al-Jazira's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 1.65.
The sample (29/29 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Jazira Win
46%
2.20
22%
4.63
33%
3.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 2
7.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.97
Al-Jazira xG
Total xG
3.62
1.65
Al Nasr xG
2.20
46%
Home win
4.63
22%
Draw
3.04
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.44
30%
BTTS No
3.28
Clean Sheet
19%
5.22
14%
7.16
Win to Nil
9%
11.47
5%
21.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 4.4 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 5.3 | 8.7 | 7.2 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 8.6 | 7.1 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 5.6 | 4.6 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.8 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Jazira vs Al Nasr?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are Al-Jazira and Al Nasr expected to score?
The model projects 1.97 expected goals for Al-Jazira and 1.65 for Al Nasr, a combined total of 3.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Jazira vs Al Nasr?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 29 outings, Al-Jazira have picked up 1.31 PPG on a 10W 8D 11L record — D-W-L-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Al-Jazira, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al Nasr's form line: 13W 6D 10L from 29 games, 1.55 PPG, last five L-L-W-W-L. It's still early in the season for Al Nasr, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.31 PPG for Al-Jazira against 1.55 for Al Nasr. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Al-Jazira have posted 1.57 PPG from 14 outings (6W 4D 4L).
On the road, Al Nasr have gone 6W 3D 5L from 14 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Jazira are averaging 1.79 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game recently; Al Nasr are on 1.69 scored and 1.41 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Jazira have seen both teams score in 72% of their recent games; Al Nasr in 62%.
Last 29 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Jazira
Early Season
Al Nasr
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Jazira and Al Nasr in coming into this match?
Al-Jazira have gone 10W 8D 11L in their last 29 games (1.31 PPG), while Al Nasr have gone 13W 6D 10L in their last 29 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Jazira at home or Al Nasr away?
Al-Jazira's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Jazira at home: 1.57 PPG; Al Nasr away: 1.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 24 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Jazira have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al Nasr — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Al-Jazira
1
Draws
3
Al Nasr
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Jazira and Al Nasr?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Jazira have won 6, Al Nasr have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Jazira and Al Nasr last play each other?
They last met on 24 April 2026, when Al Nasr 3-2 Al-Jazira.
Who has won more matches between Al-Jazira and Al Nasr?
Al-Jazira have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Jazira are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Al Nasr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 79% for Al-Jazira, 64% for Al Nasr — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Al-Jazira and 79% for Al Nasr. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 57% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Jazira home games / Al Nasr away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Jazira play Al Nasr?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 79% of Al-Jazira's games and 64% of Al Nasr's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Jazira vs Al Nasr usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Al-Jazira's matches and 79% of Al Nasr's.
Do Al-Jazira and Al Nasr tend to score early?
Al-Jazira have had a goal before half-time in 93% of their recent matches, Al Nasr in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Jazira cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Al Nasr.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Jazira beat Al Nasr 3-1 at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Jazira 1.97 xG and Al Nasr 1.65 xG, a combined 3.62. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Al-Jazira beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Jazira attack 0.99 / defence 0.86 against Al Nasr attack 1.17 / defence 1.04, drawn from 29/29 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Al-Jazira 46% | Draw 22% | Al Nasr 33%, with Al-Jazira to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Jazira 66%, Al Nasr 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Jazira's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did.
Al Nasr's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Jazira 1.31 PPG, Al Nasr 1.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Jazira win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Jazira (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.86 average — above their attacking norm. Al Nasr (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.43 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.