Zorya Luhansk vs Dnipro-1 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Zorya Luhansk at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Zorya Luhansk vs Dnipro-1 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Slavutych-Arena plays host to Zorya Luhansk versus Dnipro-1 in Premier League, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off: Saturday 9 April 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Zorya Luhansk have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 7W 1D 2L. Last five: W L W W D. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Zorya Luhansk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Zorya Luhansk's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 2L across 9 games at Slavutych-Arena this term (2.11 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 0.44 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 9 home games (67%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Slavutych-Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 22% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Dnipro-1's overall Premier League record this term: 8W 0D 2L from 10 games (2.40 PPG). Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Dnipro-1, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dnipro-1's away record: 5W 1D 3L from 9 road trips in Premier League this season (1.78 PPG). Away from home they average 1.44 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 9 away games (44%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.78 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 2.20 PPG for Zorya Luhansk against 2.40 for Dnipro-1. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Zorya Luhansk lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Sep 2021, ended 4–0 with Zorya Luhansk winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Zorya Luhansk goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (18 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 22% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Dnipro-1 goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (18 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zorya Luhansk 50% versus Dnipro-1 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zorya Luhansk 50% | Dnipro-1 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zorya Luhansk 1.18 xG and Dnipro-1 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zorya Luhansk attack 1.016 / defence 0.965 | Dnipro-1 attack 0.891 / defence 1.055. League average goals — home 1.104 / away 1.222. Data: 18 Zorya Luhansk games / 18 Dnipro-1 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zorya Luhansk 39% | Draw 29% | Dnipro-1 32%. Fair-value odds: Zorya Luhansk 2.56 | Draw 3.45 | Dnipro-1 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Zorya Luhansk as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Zorya Luhansk if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.23 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates corroborate: Zorya Luhansk 22% | Dnipro-1 33% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zorya Luhansk vs Dnipro-1 | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Slavutych-Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Apr 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zorya Luhansk 39% | Draw 29% | Dnipro-1 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 45% | xG Zorya Luhansk 1.18 / Dnipro-1 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Zorya Luhansk attack 1.016 / def 0.965 | Dnipro-1 attack 0.891 / def 1.055 | league avg home 1.104 / away 1.222 • Poisson stance: Zorya Luhansk (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Zorya Luhansk xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Dnipro-1 xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zorya Luhansk vs Dnipro-1 kick off?
Zorya Luhansk vs Dnipro-1 kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 9 April 2022 at Slavutych-Arena.
Where is Zorya Luhansk vs Dnipro-1 being played?
The match is being played at Slavutych-Arena.
What competition is Zorya Luhansk vs Dnipro-1 part of?
Zorya Luhansk vs Dnipro-1 is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Zorya Luhansk vs Dnipro-1?
Our statistical model gives Zorya Luhansk a 39% chance of winning, Dnipro-1 a 32% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Zorya Luhansk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zorya Luhansk vs Dnipro-1?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Zorya Luhansk and Dnipro-1 will score (BTTS).
Will Zorya Luhansk vs Dnipro-1 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zorya Luhansk and Dnipro-1?
Record (1 meetings): Zorya Luhansk 1W | Draws 0 | Dnipro-1 0W.
What form are Zorya Luhansk and Dnipro-1 in?
Zorya Luhansk (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-W-D. Dnipro-1 (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Zorya Luhansk's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against Dnipro-1's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.18. Flip it around — Dnipro-1's attack (0.89x) against Zorya Luhansk's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.4%), 1-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Zorya Luhansk Win
39%
2.57
29%
3.47
32%
3.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Zorya Luhansk xG
Total xG
2.23
1.05
Dnipro-1 xG
2.57
39%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
3.10
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
35%
2.86
31%
3.27
Win to Nil
14%
7.34
10%
10.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.7 | 11.2 | 5.9 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 13.3 | 7.0 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 7.9 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zorya Luhansk vs Dnipro-1?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Zorya Luhansk and Dnipro-1 expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Zorya Luhansk and 1.05 for Dnipro-1, a combined total of 2.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Zorya Luhansk vs Dnipro-1?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Zorya Luhansk come into this having played 18 games, going 11W 3D 4L for 2.00 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-D. The sample for Zorya Luhansk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Dnipro-1 sit at 2.22 PPG from 18 outings (13W 1D 4L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Dnipro-1 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.00 PPG for Zorya Luhansk against 2.22 for Dnipro-1. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Zorya Luhansk's home form reads 6W 1D 2L across 9 games on their own ground, a 2.11 PPG return.
Away from home, Dnipro-1 have taken 1.78 points per game from 9 outings (5W 1D 3L). That's a step down from their 2.22 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Dnipro-1's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Zorya Luhansk are averaging 2.06 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Dnipro-1 are on 1.94 scored and 0.94 conceded. Zorya Luhansk's scoring rate against Dnipro-1's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Zorya Luhansk have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games; Dnipro-1 in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 18 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zorya Luhansk
Blended
Dnipro-1
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zorya Luhansk and Dnipro-1 in coming into this match?
Zorya Luhansk have gone 11W 3D 4L in their last 18 games (2.00 PPG), while Dnipro-1 have gone 13W 1D 4L in their last 18 (2.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zorya Luhansk at home or Dnipro-1 away?
Zorya Luhansk's home record (2.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zorya Luhansk at home: 2.11 PPG; Dnipro-1 away: 1.78 PPG.
Have Zorya Luhansk or Dnipro-1 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Zorya Luhansk have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Dnipro-1 in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Zorya Luhansk won 0-4 on 26 Sep 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Zorya Luhansk have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Dnipro-1 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Zorya Luhansk
1
Draws
2
Dnipro-1
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zorya Luhansk and Dnipro-1?
From 5 meetings on record, Zorya Luhansk have won 2, Dnipro-1 have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Zorya Luhansk and Dnipro-1 last play each other?
They last met on 9 April 2024, when Dnipro-1 2-2 Zorya Luhansk.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Zorya Luhansk see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Dnipro-1 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 22% (Zorya Luhansk) and 33% (Dnipro-1) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Zorya Luhansk) and 56% (Dnipro-1).
On the defensive side: Zorya Luhansk keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Dnipro-1 in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zorya Luhansk home games / Dnipro-1 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zorya Luhansk play Dnipro-1?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 22% of Zorya Luhansk's recent matches and 33% of Dnipro-1's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Zorya Luhansk vs Dnipro-1 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Zorya Luhansk's recent games and 56% of Dnipro-1's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Zorya Luhansk and Dnipro-1 tend to score early?
Zorya Luhansk have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Dnipro-1 in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Zorya Luhansk's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Slavutych-Arena, Regular Season - 24, as Zorya Luhansk and Dnipro-1 drew 0-0 in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zorya Luhansk 1.18 xG and Dnipro-1 1.05 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Zorya Luhansk fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Dnipro-1 landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zorya Luhansk attack 1.02 / defence 0.96 against Dnipro-1 attack 0.89 / defence 1.05, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zorya Luhansk 39% | Draw 29% | Dnipro-1 32%, with Zorya Luhansk to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zorya Luhansk 50%, Dnipro-1 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zorya Luhansk's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Dnipro-1's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Zorya Luhansk 2.00 PPG, Dnipro-1 2.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Zorya Luhansk (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.44 scoring average — below par going forward. Dnipro-1 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.44 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.