Vorskla Poltava vs Oleksandria – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Vorskla Poltava at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Vorskla Poltava vs Oleksandria encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Vorskla Poltava and Oleksandria meet at Stadion Avanhard in Premier League, Regular Season - 26. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 23 April 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Vorskla Poltava (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Premier League fixtures this term — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W L D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Vorskla Poltava, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vorskla Poltava at Stadion Avanhard this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Avanhard.
Oleksandria's overall Premier League record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Oleksandria, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Oleksandria's form when playing away from home: 2W 5D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Vorskla Poltava's 1.80 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Oleksandria's 1.20 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Vorskla Poltava, 0 for Oleksandria and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 17 Oct 2021, ended 2–1 with Vorskla Poltava winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Vorskla Poltava — key trading statistics (18 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Oleksandria — key trading statistics (18 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vorskla Poltava 50% versus Oleksandria 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vorskla Poltava 44% | Oleksandria 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vorskla Poltava 1.38 xG and Oleksandria 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vorskla Poltava attack 1.136 / defence 1.075 | Oleksandria attack 0.769 / defence 1.098. League average goals — home 1.102 / away 1.223. Data: 18 Vorskla Poltava games / 18 Oleksandria games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vorskla Poltava 45% | Draw 27% | Oleksandria 28%. Fair-value odds: Vorskla Poltava 2.22 | Draw 3.70 | Oleksandria 3.57. Vorskla Poltava hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Vorskla Poltava are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Vorskla Poltava if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.39 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates corroborate: Vorskla Poltava 40% | Oleksandria 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vorskla Poltava vs Oleksandria | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Stadion Avanhard • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Apr 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vorskla Poltava 45% | Draw 27% | Oleksandria 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 48% | xG Vorskla Poltava 1.38 / Oleksandria 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Vorskla Poltava attack 1.136 / def 1.075 | Oleksandria attack 0.769 / def 1.098 | league avg home 1.102 / away 1.223 • Poisson stance: Vorskla Poltava (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Vorskla Poltava xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Oleksandria xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vorskla Poltava vs Oleksandria kick off?
Vorskla Poltava vs Oleksandria kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 23 April 2022 at Stadion Avanhard.
Where is Vorskla Poltava vs Oleksandria being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Avanhard.
What competition is Vorskla Poltava vs Oleksandria part of?
Vorskla Poltava vs Oleksandria is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Vorskla Poltava vs Oleksandria?
Our statistical model gives Vorskla Poltava a 45% chance of winning, Oleksandria a 28% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Vorskla Poltava the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vorskla Poltava vs Oleksandria?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Vorskla Poltava and Oleksandria will score (BTTS).
Will Vorskla Poltava vs Oleksandria have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vorskla Poltava and Oleksandria?
Record (1 meetings): Vorskla Poltava 1W | Draws 0 | Oleksandria 0W.
What form are Vorskla Poltava and Oleksandria in?
Vorskla Poltava (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-D-D. Oleksandria (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Vorskla Poltava's attack rating (1.14) and Oleksandria's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 1.38 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Oleksandria's attack (0.77x) against Vorskla Poltava's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.01.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.0%), 0-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vorskla Poltava Win
45%
2.21
27%
3.68
28%
3.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Vorskla Poltava xG
Total xG
2.39
1.01
Oleksandria xG
2.21
45%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
3.62
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
36%
2.75
25%
3.96
Win to Nil
16%
6.08
7%
14.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 9.3 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 12.8 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 8.8 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vorskla Poltava vs Oleksandria?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Vorskla Poltava and Oleksandria expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Vorskla Poltava and 1.01 for Oleksandria, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Vorskla Poltava vs Oleksandria?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 18 outings, Vorskla Poltava have picked up 1.83 PPG on a 9W 6D 3L record — W-W-L-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Vorskla Poltava is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Oleksandria's form line: 7W 5D 6L from 18 games, 1.44 PPG, last five W-L-L-W-L. The sample for Oleksandria is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.83 PPG for Vorskla Poltava against 1.44 for Oleksandria. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Vorskla Poltava have posted 2.10 PPG from 10 outings (6W 3D 1L).
On the road, Oleksandria have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Vorskla Poltava come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Vorskla Poltava are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Oleksandria are on 1.06 scored and 0.89 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Vorskla Poltava have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games; Oleksandria in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 18 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vorskla Poltava
Blended
Oleksandria
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vorskla Poltava and Oleksandria in coming into this match?
Vorskla Poltava have gone 9W 6D 3L in their last 18 games (1.83 PPG), while Oleksandria have gone 7W 5D 6L in their last 18 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vorskla Poltava at home or Oleksandria away?
Vorskla Poltava's home record (2.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vorskla Poltava at home: 2.10 PPG; Oleksandria away: 1.10 PPG.
Have Vorskla Poltava or Oleksandria been keeping clean sheets recently?
Vorskla Poltava have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Oleksandria in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 7 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Oleksandria have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Oleksandria won 3-0 on 1 Apr 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Vorskla Poltava have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Oleksandria — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
2
Vorskla Poltava
1
Draws
4
Oleksandria
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vorskla Poltava and Oleksandria?
From 7 meetings on record, Vorskla Poltava have won 2, Oleksandria have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Vorskla Poltava and Oleksandria last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2025, when Vorskla Poltava 1-3 Oleksandria.
Who has won more matches between Vorskla Poltava and Oleksandria?
Oleksandria have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Vorskla Poltava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
Oleksandria see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vorskla Poltava 40%, Oleksandria 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Vorskla Poltava) and 30% (Oleksandria).
On the defensive side: Vorskla Poltava keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Oleksandria in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vorskla Poltava home games / Oleksandria away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vorskla Poltava play Oleksandria?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Vorskla Poltava's recent matches and 50% of Oleksandria's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Vorskla Poltava vs Oleksandria usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Vorskla Poltava's recent games and 30% of Oleksandria's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Vorskla Poltava and Oleksandria tend to score early?
Vorskla Poltava have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Oleksandria in 40% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Vorskla Poltava's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vorskla Poltava and Oleksandria finished level at 0-0 at Stadion Avanhard, Regular Season - 26, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vorskla Poltava 1.38 xG and Oleksandria 1.01 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Vorskla Poltava fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Oleksandria landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vorskla Poltava attack 1.14 / defence 1.07 against Oleksandria attack 0.77 / defence 1.10, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vorskla Poltava 45% | Draw 27% | Oleksandria 28%, with Vorskla Poltava to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vorskla Poltava 44%, Oleksandria 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vorskla Poltava's trading profile (18 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Oleksandria's trading profile (18 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Vorskla Poltava 1.83 PPG, Oleksandria 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Vorskla Poltava (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.20 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.80 average — tighter than their form line. Oleksandria (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.80 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.