Vorskla Poltava 2-0 FC Kharkiv – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Vorskla Poltava at 61%, yet other data sources diverge — this Vorskla Poltava vs FC Kharkiv fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 5 sees FC Kharkiv travel to Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butov'skogo to take on Vorskla Poltava. The game is scheduled for Friday 20 August 2021, 17:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Vorskla Poltava stand at 2W 2D 0L from 4 Premier League matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D W W D. They are averaging 2.25 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 4 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Vorskla Poltava have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Vorskla Poltava at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butov'skogo this season: 2W 1D 0L from 3 home games — 2.33 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.67 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Premier League games this season, FC Kharkiv have recorded 2W 0D 2L from 4 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.25 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. FC Kharkiv have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Vorskla Poltava carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.00 vs 1.50. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
In-Play Profile
Vorskla Poltava in-play tendencies (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; they lead at the break 75% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%.
FC Kharkiv in-play tendencies (4 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they fail to score in 50% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Vorskla Poltava 75% and FC Kharkiv 50% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vorskla Poltava 50% | FC Kharkiv 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vorskla Poltava 1.87 xG and FC Kharkiv 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vorskla Poltava attack 1.366 / defence 1.065 | FC Kharkiv attack 0.576 / defence 1.215. League average goals — home 1.125 / away 1.238. Vorskla Poltava carry an above-average attack strength of 1.366 — their λ of 1.87 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. FC Kharkiv bring a strong defensive rating of 1.215 — this is suppressing Vorskla Poltava's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 4 Vorskla Poltava games / 4 FC Kharkiv games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vorskla Poltava 61% | Draw 28% | FC Kharkiv 12%. Fair-value odds: Vorskla Poltava 1.64 | Draw 3.57 | FC Kharkiv 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Vorskla Poltava (61%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Vorskla Poltava at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 28% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.63 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.2 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates are neutral: Vorskla Poltava 67% | FC Kharkiv 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vorskla Poltava vs FC Kharkiv | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butov'skogo • Kick-off: Friday 20 Aug 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vorskla Poltava 61% | Draw 28% | FC Kharkiv 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 48% | xG Vorskla Poltava 1.87 / FC Kharkiv 0.76 • Poisson strength factors: Vorskla Poltava attack 1.366 / def 1.065 | FC Kharkiv attack 0.576 / def 1.215 | league avg home 1.125 / away 1.238 • Poisson stance: Vorskla Poltava (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.87
Vorskla Poltava xG
Expected Goals
0.76
FC Kharkiv xG
48%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vorskla Poltava vs FC Kharkiv kick off?
Vorskla Poltava vs FC Kharkiv kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 20 August 2021 at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butov'skogo.
What was the final score in Vorskla Poltava vs FC Kharkiv?
Vorskla Poltava 2 - 0 FC Kharkiv.
Where is Vorskla Poltava vs FC Kharkiv being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butov'skogo.
What competition is Vorskla Poltava vs FC Kharkiv part of?
Vorskla Poltava vs FC Kharkiv is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Vorskla Poltava vs FC Kharkiv?
Our statistical model gives Vorskla Poltava a 61% chance of winning, FC Kharkiv a 12% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Vorskla Poltava the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vorskla Poltava vs FC Kharkiv?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Vorskla Poltava and FC Kharkiv will score (BTTS).
Will Vorskla Poltava vs FC Kharkiv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vorskla Poltava and FC Kharkiv?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Vorskla Poltava and FC Kharkiv in?
Vorskla Poltava (all comps): 2W-2D-0L in 4 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.25 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-D. FC Kharkiv (all comps): 2W-0D-2L in 4 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.25 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Vorskla Poltava's attack at 1.37x the league average against FC Kharkiv's defence at 1.22x — combine the two and it projects 1.87 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, FC Kharkiv's attack versus Vorskla Poltava's defence, projects 0.76 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 4/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 12.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.2%), 1-1 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vorskla Poltava Win
61%
1.65
28%
3.58
12%
8.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.6%
Home win
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.87
Vorskla Poltava xG
Total xG
2.63
0.76
FC Kharkiv xG
1.65
61%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
8.70
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
47%
2.14
15%
6.47
Win to Nil
28%
3.52
2%
56.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.5 | 10.3 | 3.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.6 | 9.6 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.8 | 6.0 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.7 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vorskla Poltava vs FC Kharkiv?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Vorskla Poltava and FC Kharkiv expected to score?
The model projects 1.87 expected goals for Vorskla Poltava and 0.76 for FC Kharkiv, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Vorskla Poltava vs FC Kharkiv?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 4 outings, Vorskla Poltava have picked up 2.00 PPG on a 2W 2D 0L record — D-W-W-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Vorskla Poltava, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
FC Kharkiv's form line: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games, 1.50 PPG, last five W-L-W-L. It's still early in the season for FC Kharkiv, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Vorskla Poltava are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against FC Kharkiv.
Goals in Recent Form
Vorskla Poltava are averaging 2.25 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; FC Kharkiv are on 1.25 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Vorskla Poltava have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games.
Last 4 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vorskla Poltava
Early Season
FC Kharkiv
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vorskla Poltava and FC Kharkiv in coming into this match?
Vorskla Poltava have gone 2W 2D 0L in their last 4 games (2.00 PPG), while FC Kharkiv have gone 2W 0D 2L in their last 4 (1.50 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Vorskla Poltava's record when hosting FC Kharkiv specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Vorskla Poltava
2
Draws
2
FC Kharkiv
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vorskla Poltava and FC Kharkiv?
From 5 meetings on record, Vorskla Poltava have won 1, FC Kharkiv have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Vorskla Poltava and FC Kharkiv last play each other?
They last met on 4 May 2024, when FC Kharkiv 3-2 Vorskla Poltava.
Who has won more matches between Vorskla Poltava and FC Kharkiv?
FC Kharkiv have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Vorskla Poltava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
FC Kharkiv see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vorskla Poltava 75%, FC Kharkiv 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Vorskla Poltava) and 50% (FC Kharkiv).
On the defensive side: FC Kharkiv in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vorskla Poltava home games / FC Kharkiv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vorskla Poltava play FC Kharkiv?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Vorskla Poltava's games and 50% of FC Kharkiv's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Vorskla Poltava vs FC Kharkiv usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Vorskla Poltava's recent games and 50% of FC Kharkiv's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Vorskla Poltava and FC Kharkiv tend to score early?
Vorskla Poltava have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, FC Kharkiv in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Vorskla Poltava cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over FC Kharkiv.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vorskla Poltava beat FC Kharkiv 2-0 at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butov'skogo, Regular Season - 5, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vorskla Poltava 1.87 xG and FC Kharkiv 0.76 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vorskla Poltava attack 1.37 / defence 1.06 against FC Kharkiv attack 0.58 / defence 1.22, drawn from 4/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vorskla Poltava 61% | Draw 28% | FC Kharkiv 12%, with Vorskla Poltava to win its most likely call at 61%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vorskla Poltava 50%, FC Kharkiv 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vorskla Poltava's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not.
FC Kharkiv's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Vorskla Poltava arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.50. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Vorskla Poltava conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. FC Kharkiv managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.