Vorskla Poltava vs Dynamo Kyiv – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dynamo Kyiv at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Vorskla Poltava vs Dynamo Kyiv fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 29 as Vorskla Poltava welcome Dynamo Kyiv to Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butov'skogo. Kick-off is set for Saturday 14 May 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Vorskla Poltava stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W L D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Vorskla Poltava, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vorskla Poltava's home record at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butov'skogo: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Premier League appearances (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butov'skogo.
Across all Premier League games this season, Dynamo Kyiv have recorded 7W 2D 1L from 10 outings — 2.30 PPG. Last five: L W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Dynamo Kyiv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Premier League this season, Dynamo Kyiv have posted 8W 1D 0L from 9 away outings — 2.78 PPG. They are averaging 2.78 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 9 away games (44%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 56% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.80 PPG (Vorskla Poltava) versus 2.30 (Dynamo Kyiv). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Vorskla Poltava, 0 for Dynamo Kyiv and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 6 Nov 2021, ended 2–1 with Vorskla Poltava winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Vorskla Poltava trading profile (18 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Dynamo Kyiv trading profile (18 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 61% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vorskla Poltava 50% versus Dynamo Kyiv 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vorskla Poltava 44% | Dynamo Kyiv 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vorskla Poltava 1.29 xG and Dynamo Kyiv 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vorskla Poltava attack 1.118 / defence 1.086 | Dynamo Kyiv attack 1.163 / defence 1.050. League average goals — home 1.100 / away 1.225. Data: 18 Vorskla Poltava games / 18 Dynamo Kyiv games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vorskla Poltava 32% | Draw 25% | Dynamo Kyiv 43%. Fair-value odds: Vorskla Poltava 3.12 | Draw 4.00 | Dynamo Kyiv 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Dynamo Kyiv are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dynamo Kyiv offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.84 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Vorskla Poltava 40% | Dynamo Kyiv 56%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vorskla Poltava vs Dynamo Kyiv | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butov'skogo • Kick-off: Saturday 14 May 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vorskla Poltava 32% | Draw 25% | Dynamo Kyiv 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 57% | xG Vorskla Poltava 1.29 / Dynamo Kyiv 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: Vorskla Poltava attack 1.118 / def 1.086 | Dynamo Kyiv attack 1.163 / def 1.050 | league avg home 1.100 / away 1.225 • Poisson stance: Dynamo Kyiv (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Vorskla Poltava xG
Expected Goals
1.55
Dynamo Kyiv xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vorskla Poltava vs Dynamo Kyiv kick off?
Vorskla Poltava vs Dynamo Kyiv kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 14 May 2022 at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butov'skogo.
Where is Vorskla Poltava vs Dynamo Kyiv being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butov'skogo.
What competition is Vorskla Poltava vs Dynamo Kyiv part of?
Vorskla Poltava vs Dynamo Kyiv is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Vorskla Poltava vs Dynamo Kyiv?
Our statistical model gives Vorskla Poltava a 32% chance of winning, Dynamo Kyiv a 43% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Dynamo Kyiv the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vorskla Poltava vs Dynamo Kyiv?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Vorskla Poltava and Dynamo Kyiv will score (BTTS).
Will Vorskla Poltava vs Dynamo Kyiv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vorskla Poltava and Dynamo Kyiv?
Record (1 meetings): Vorskla Poltava 1W | Draws 0 | Dynamo Kyiv 0W.
What form are Vorskla Poltava and Dynamo Kyiv in?
Vorskla Poltava (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-D-D. Dynamo Kyiv (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Vorskla Poltava's attack rating (1.12) and Dynamo Kyiv's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 1.29 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Dynamo Kyiv's attack versus Vorskla Poltava's defence, projects 1.55 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 2-1 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Dynamo Kyiv Win
32%
3.14
25%
4.02
43%
2.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Vorskla Poltava xG
Total xG
2.84
1.55
Dynamo Kyiv xG
3.14
32%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
2.31
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
21%
4.70
27%
3.64
Win to Nil
7%
14.77
12%
8.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 9.0 | 7.0 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.7 | 9.0 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 7.5 | 5.8 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.3 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vorskla Poltava vs Dynamo Kyiv?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Vorskla Poltava and Dynamo Kyiv expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Vorskla Poltava and 1.55 for Dynamo Kyiv, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Vorskla Poltava vs Dynamo Kyiv?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Vorskla Poltava come into this having played 18 games, going 9W 6D 3L for 1.83 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-D-D. The sample for Vorskla Poltava is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Dynamo Kyiv sit at 2.50 PPG from 18 outings (14W 3D 1L), a run that reads L-W-W-W-D across their last five. The sample for Dynamo Kyiv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dynamo Kyiv carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.67 PPG clear of Vorskla Poltava — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Vorskla Poltava's home form reads 6W 2D 1L across 9 games on their own ground, a 2.22 PPG return.
Away from home, Dynamo Kyiv have taken 2.78 points per game from 9 outings (8W 1D 0L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dynamo Kyiv come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Vorskla Poltava are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Dynamo Kyiv are on 2.61 scored and 0.50 conceded. Dynamo Kyiv's attacking output running into Vorskla Poltava's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: Vorskla Poltava have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games; Dynamo Kyiv in 61% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 18 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vorskla Poltava
Blended
Dynamo Kyiv
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vorskla Poltava and Dynamo Kyiv in coming into this match?
Vorskla Poltava have gone 9W 6D 3L in their last 18 games (1.83 PPG), while Dynamo Kyiv have gone 14W 3D 1L in their last 18 (2.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vorskla Poltava at home or Dynamo Kyiv away?
Dynamo Kyiv's away record (2.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vorskla Poltava at home: 2.22 PPG; Dynamo Kyiv away: 2.78 PPG.
Have Vorskla Poltava or Dynamo Kyiv been keeping clean sheets recently?
Vorskla Poltava have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Dynamo Kyiv in 61%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
7 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 31 Mar 2024, when Dynamo Kyiv won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Vorskla Poltava's record when hosting Dynamo Kyiv specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
1
Vorskla Poltava
2
Draws
4
Dynamo Kyiv
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vorskla Poltava and Dynamo Kyiv?
From 7 meetings on record, Vorskla Poltava have won 1, Dynamo Kyiv have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Vorskla Poltava and Dynamo Kyiv last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2025, when Vorskla Poltava 1-1 Dynamo Kyiv.
Who has won more matches between Vorskla Poltava and Dynamo Kyiv?
Dynamo Kyiv have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Vorskla Poltava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time.
Dynamo Kyiv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 78% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vorskla Poltava 33%, Dynamo Kyiv 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Vorskla Poltava) and 56% (Dynamo Kyiv).
On the defensive side: Vorskla Poltava keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches; Dynamo Kyiv in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vorskla Poltava home games / Dynamo Kyiv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vorskla Poltava play Dynamo Kyiv?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Vorskla Poltava's recent matches and 56% of Dynamo Kyiv's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Vorskla Poltava vs Dynamo Kyiv usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Vorskla Poltava's recent games and 56% of Dynamo Kyiv's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Vorskla Poltava and Dynamo Kyiv tend to score early?
Vorskla Poltava have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Dynamo Kyiv in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Vorskla Poltava's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vorskla Poltava and Dynamo Kyiv finished level at 0-0 at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butov'skogo, Regular Season - 29, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vorskla Poltava 1.29 xG and Dynamo Kyiv 1.55 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Vorskla Poltava fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Dynamo Kyiv landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vorskla Poltava attack 1.12 / defence 1.09 against Dynamo Kyiv attack 1.16 / defence 1.05, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vorskla Poltava 32% | Draw 25% | Dynamo Kyiv 43%, with Dynamo Kyiv to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vorskla Poltava 44%, Dynamo Kyiv 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vorskla Poltava's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Dynamo Kyiv's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 61% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Dynamo Kyiv arrived the stronger side — 2.50 PPG against 1.83. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Vorskla Poltava (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.22 scoring average — below par going forward. Dynamo Kyiv (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.78 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.