Vorskla Poltava 0-0 Chornomorets – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Vorskla Poltava at 63% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Vorskla Poltava vs Chornomorets encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Chornomorets make the trip to Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butov'skogo to face Vorskla Poltava in Premier League, Regular Season - 13. The match kicks off on Monday 1 November 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Current Form
Vorskla Poltava's overall Premier League record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Vorskla Poltava, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vorskla Poltava's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 1L across 8 games at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butov'skogo this term (2.12 PPG). They are averaging 2.12 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 clean sheets from 8 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butov'skogo.
Chornomorets have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 1W 4D 5L. Last five: L D L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Chornomorets, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Chornomorets have gone 1W 1D 4L from 6 away fixtures this term (0.67 PPG). Away from home they average 1.33 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward Vorskla Poltava. A 1.30 PPG lead over Chornomorets (2.00 vs 0.70) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading
Vorskla Poltava half-time and goal-timing data (12 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; they lead at the break 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Chornomorets half-time and goal-timing data (12 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vorskla Poltava 42% versus Chornomorets 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vorskla Poltava 42% | Chornomorets 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vorskla Poltava 2.29 xG and Chornomorets 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vorskla Poltava attack 1.259 / defence 1.081 | Chornomorets attack 0.861 / defence 1.693. League average goals — home 1.075 / away 1.178. Vorskla Poltava carry an above-average attack strength of 1.259 — their λ of 2.29 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Chornomorets bring a strong defensive rating of 1.693 — this is suppressing Vorskla Poltava's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 12 Vorskla Poltava games / 12 Chornomorets games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vorskla Poltava 63% | Draw 21% | Chornomorets 16%. Fair-value odds: Vorskla Poltava 1.59 | Draw 4.76 | Chornomorets 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Vorskla Poltava (63%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.39. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.39 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (2.29 / 1.10) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Vorskla Poltava are the pick at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.39 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 66% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Vorskla Poltava 38% | Chornomorets 67%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vorskla Poltava vs Chornomorets | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butov'skogo • Kick-off: Monday 1 Nov 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vorskla Poltava 63% | Draw 21% | Chornomorets 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 61% | xG Vorskla Poltava 2.29 / Chornomorets 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Vorskla Poltava attack 1.259 / def 1.081 | Chornomorets attack 0.861 / def 1.693 | league avg home 1.075 / away 1.178 • Poisson stance: Vorskla Poltava (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.29
Vorskla Poltava xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Chornomorets xG
61%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vorskla Poltava vs Chornomorets kick off?
Vorskla Poltava vs Chornomorets kicked off at 17:30 on Monday 1 November 2021 at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butov'skogo.
What was the final score in Vorskla Poltava vs Chornomorets?
Vorskla Poltava 0 - 0 Chornomorets.
Where is Vorskla Poltava vs Chornomorets being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butov'skogo.
What competition is Vorskla Poltava vs Chornomorets part of?
Vorskla Poltava vs Chornomorets is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Vorskla Poltava vs Chornomorets?
Our statistical model gives Vorskla Poltava a 63% chance of winning, Chornomorets a 16% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Vorskla Poltava the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vorskla Poltava vs Chornomorets?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Vorskla Poltava and Chornomorets will score (BTTS).
Will Vorskla Poltava vs Chornomorets have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vorskla Poltava and Chornomorets?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Vorskla Poltava and Chornomorets in?
Vorskla Poltava (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-L. Chornomorets (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Vorskla Poltava's attack rating (1.26) and Chornomorets's defence rating (1.69), the model arrives at 2.29 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Chornomorets's attack (0.86x) against Vorskla Poltava's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (8.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Vorskla Poltava Win
63%
1.58
21%
4.87
16%
6.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
8.9%
Home win
1 – 1
8.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.29
Vorskla Poltava xG
Total xG
3.39
1.10
Chornomorets xG
1.58
63%
Home win
4.87
21%
Draw
6.22
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.54
Clean Sheet
33%
2.99
10%
9.89
Win to Nil
21%
4.72
2%
61.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 7.7 | 8.5 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.7 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.8 | 7.4 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.9 | 4.3 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vorskla Poltava vs Chornomorets?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are Vorskla Poltava and Chornomorets expected to score?
The model projects 2.29 expected goals for Vorskla Poltava and 1.10 for Chornomorets, a combined total of 3.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Vorskla Poltava vs Chornomorets?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 12 outings, Vorskla Poltava have picked up 2.00 PPG on a 7W 3D 2L record — W-W-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Vorskla Poltava is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Chornomorets's form line: 1W 4D 7L from 12 games, 0.58 PPG, last five L-D-L-L-D. The sample for Chornomorets is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Vorskla Poltava are the form team by 1.42 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Chornomorets.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Vorskla Poltava have posted 2.17 PPG from 6 outings (4W 1D 1L).
On the road, Chornomorets have gone 1W 1D 4L from 6 away games — 0.67 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Vorskla Poltava come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Vorskla Poltava are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game recently; Chornomorets are on 1.00 scored and 2.17 conceded.
Defensively: Vorskla Poltava have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 12 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vorskla Poltava
Blended
Chornomorets
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vorskla Poltava and Chornomorets in coming into this match?
Vorskla Poltava have gone 7W 3D 2L in their last 12 games (2.00 PPG), while Chornomorets have gone 1W 4D 7L in their last 12 (0.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vorskla Poltava at home or Chornomorets away?
Vorskla Poltava's home record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vorskla Poltava at home: 2.17 PPG; Chornomorets away: 0.67 PPG.
Have Vorskla Poltava or Chornomorets been keeping clean sheets recently?
Vorskla Poltava have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Chornomorets in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 7 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Vorskla Poltava have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Chornomorets — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
5
Vorskla Poltava
1
Draws
1
Chornomorets
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vorskla Poltava and Chornomorets?
From 7 meetings on record, Vorskla Poltava have won 5, Chornomorets have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Vorskla Poltava and Chornomorets last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2025, when Vorskla Poltava 1-2 Chornomorets.
Who has won more matches between Vorskla Poltava and Chornomorets?
Vorskla Poltava have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Vorskla Poltava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Chornomorets are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vorskla Poltava 33%, Chornomorets 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Vorskla Poltava and 100% for Chornomorets. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Vorskla Poltava keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Chornomorets in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vorskla Poltava home games / Chornomorets away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vorskla Poltava play Chornomorets?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Vorskla Poltava's recent matches and 67% of Chornomorets's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Vorskla Poltava vs Chornomorets usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Vorskla Poltava's matches and 100% of Chornomorets's.
Do Vorskla Poltava and Chornomorets tend to score early?
Vorskla Poltava have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Chornomorets in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Vorskla Poltava's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butov'skogo, Regular Season - 13, as Vorskla Poltava and Chornomorets drew 0-0 in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vorskla Poltava 2.29 xG and Chornomorets 1.10 xG, a combined 3.39. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Vorskla Poltava fell 2.3 short of their projected output. Chornomorets landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vorskla Poltava attack 1.26 / defence 1.08 against Chornomorets attack 0.86 / defence 1.69, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vorskla Poltava 63% | Draw 21% | Chornomorets 16%, with Vorskla Poltava to win its most likely call at 63%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 86% and missed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vorskla Poltava 42%, Chornomorets 75%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vorskla Poltava's trading profile (12 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Chornomorets's trading profile (12 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Vorskla Poltava arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.58. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Vorskla Poltava (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.17 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.83 average — tighter than their form line. Chornomorets (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.